SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/23
  
  

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A mite snakebit on the day yesterday, as we went 10:1-4-3 on the card. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/23

 

Race  1

1.Caldee

2.Community Adjusted

3.Black Sand ( GB )

#4 CALDEE didn't show a whole heck of a lot when starting things out on the main five weeks ago, but we have a predilection for fading dirt dashers going long on the lawn for the first time. Cox ( dig it ) is a nifty 4-11 with second time starters switching surfaces & stretching out at this level ( OTB < 74 days back ) with mutuels of $8 x 3, $30 & $6. #1 COMMUNITY ADJUSTED hasn't shown much in the mornings for today's initial foray, but is extremely well bred for this kinda deal, and $10,000 bred animal went for 10X that at Keeneland about a year back. Gal is a half to a couple of turf stayers who had moderate success at this trip. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #6 BLACK SAND (GB), as there's one decent work amidst a few ordinary moves for this well bred filly by Dubawi*.  OFF TURF: 5-2-6-1-3

  

Race  2

1.Mission Wrapitup

2.Uncork the Bottle

3.Englehart entry

#4 MISSION WRAPITUP hasn't hit the board in either start since going from one Brown to another earlier this year, so this one is promptly dropped back in for a tag in today's 3rd off the layoff engagement. The good news tho, is that this outfit is a delovely 8:6-1-0 with locally based mid level dirt stock, with a whopping ROI of $3.92. #6 UNCORK THE BOTTLE is one for two going over a glib surface, ( with the blemish coming in a G3 event ) and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today -- an angle we dig. Both the #1 JUSTIN FRONT ( two for 6 at the trip ) and #1A RYAN'S CAT 6 for 8 ITM on a fast track ) comprise decent factions of the Papa Englehart entry. 

 

Race  3

1.Iaintfraidofnoghost

2.Suspended Campaign

3.Baba

#2 IANTFRAIDOFNOGHOST broke from a disadvantageous slot first time out, and as happens so often with debuters, this one smacked into the gate at the onset, effectively losing all chance that day. Saez ( he of the five bagger on Thursday ) hops on for the first time, and the 423 Tomlinson for the trip tells us that this one most definitely deserves another chance. #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN went for nearly 5 times the breeding fee at auction and has a decent gate work for today's initial spin. #4 BABA outran her odds a bit when finishing 6th of 10 first out & is eligible to improve.  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-1-5.

 

Race  4 

1.Bielefeld

2.Supply Sider

3.Storm Alfeet

#8 BIELFELD ( sounds like a James Bond character ) has ( from a speed figure perspective ) been a steady if unspectacular sort thus far, but honk if you like Donk with maiden claiming stock going brown to green & one turn to two, off breaks of six weeks or less ( 34-1 or < ), as he's a tight three for four in that department. #4 SUPPLY SIDER displayed stark improvement from the first start to the next, but will need a better break to have her best shot. #5 STORM ALFEET has been a part of the super in her last triad, and for a barn that doesn't do much, we'll chunk in at 20-1.  OFF TURF: 3-2-8-4-7

 

Race  5

1.Six Percent

2.Too Early

3.Unrelenting Force

#5 SIX PERCENT was relatively gamely in the second off the L.O try right here 25 days back, and gelding will be led over by a bossman who's 5 for 8 with allowance dirt stayers who crashed the fiesta seven weeks back or less. There's a positive ROI in that sampling, and a sub category of two for two w/third off the shelf runners. #6 TOO EARLY was a snappy little maiden breaker at this locale on opening weekend, and as this one is bred to run all day, a repeat performance is well within reach. #2 UNRELENTING FORCE went coast to coast like buttah and toast right here against maiden platers on 7/30, and Rosario fills in for the suspended Franco. 

 

Race  6 

1.Towering Gaze

2.Mia Bea Star

3.High School Crush

#1 TOWERING GAZE is an "Omnifig" here ( "...as rare as the ivory billed woodpecker." ) in such that ALL of this one's speed figures are greater than anything any other runner signed on has posted. We'll only be utilizing one other entrant as an exacta saver, and that will be the #6 MIA BEA STAR, as this uncoupled entrymate of the above got smacked around in the lone turf sprint ( a start that came without blinkers, which are now a part of the package ), so with the improvement shown in the followup, who's to say that he can't take another step forward going 5 and a half ?  #2 HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH is a bit of a nibbler by rote ( 9:M-2-3-2 ), and seems like a solid "unders" candidate once again.  OFF TURF: 1-4(MTO)-2-5-6

 

Race  7

1.Lone Rock

2.Pete's Play Call

3.Big Engine

#2 LONE ROCK fell just a half length short against 40K foes over this oval on the 29th of July, and what's interesting about the timing of this entry, is that he's just six days away from being out of jail, but is confidently entered for 62.5 this afternoon; barn is 7-19 with freshly purchased sand sprinters who crashed the party less than 50 days back. Big shot. You can pretty much use the above analysis for #6 PETE'S PLAY CALL, except that this fella got his photo taken. Hard to use one without the other. #1 BIG ENGINE owns a win & a showing in both "2nd off the break" deals and recently won his first outing here at .... the Spaaaaaaaaaaa........ 

 

Race  8 

1.Starship Jubilee

2.Rushing Fall

3.Call Me Love ( GB )

Featured race of the day is upon us, and although just an abbreviated six pack, this year's rendition of the Diana is a real corker. How do you not love a mare like #4 STARSHIP JUBILEE ?  Seven year old gal was bred for a mere 2K, and has banked $1.6 millllllllllion during a career in which she's amassed a snazzy "declining" mark of 36:18-5-3 ( showing she knows where the line is ). Trainer Kevin ( dig it ) Attard has had her over seven different strips during that time, and he more than doubles his normative 17% batting average with graded turf routers who won off of this kind of respite & are 19-1 or below ( $4, $4, $9 & $13 ). You're getting 9/2 on one who's scored in six of seven. To quote Bijou -- I'm in !!  #3 RUSHING FALL is 13:10-2-0 careerwise, but placed on the inner in her lone 3rd off the layoff attempt. Leaving beneath at shortish odds. #1 CALL ME LOVE (GB) may sit a perfect pocket trip; watch out, suckahs.  OFF TURF: 3-1-5-6-2

 

Race  9 

1.Allied Invasion

2.Z'finale

3.Aintitfunkynow

We're not really digging today's finale, so be careful. #3 ALLIED INVASION put forth an honest showing first time outta the box, and although he may have outrun his pedigree that day, at least we see that Double D is 14:6-5-1 with mdclm. turf routers who were 1-2-3 1-43 days in the rear ( $ 2.82 R.O.I. ). #8 Z'FINALE has been switched over to 007 since last in action, who immediately ceased his procreating abilities. Barn having a fine stand, and today's slide down the ladder completes the "Chop & Drop". #6 AINTITFUNKYNOW lost all hope when clipping heels early on in the game a month ago, and while we'll be using, this one'all take some pounding at the windows.  OFF TURF: 3-2-7-5-6 


Saratoga         ( Current ):     50-283     ( $420.90 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-20 ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %     101-283 ( 35.7% )( As of Sunday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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