SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/26 - Steeplechase Day
  
  

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We finished the week on a strong note with a profitable three bagger ( $20, $4 & $7 ), an $84 Quinella Box, two Exacta Boxes of $178 & $10, a $626 Triple Box, five Rolling Doubles of $134, $33, $27, $11 & $17, three rolling Pick Three's of $402, $74 & $119, and a Rolling Pick Four of $295. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/26 - Steeplechase Day

 

Race  1

1.Tomgarrow ( Ire )

2.Sheppard entry

3.Prayer Hope

We have three "tidy but tight" DRF Formulator stats in play for today's jump race, so let's get right to 'em !   #5 TOMGARROW (IRE): The hurdle meet looked like it was going to be all Jack Fisher, but it could end up being all Leslie Young ( a wonderful person, along with husband & friend, Paddy ) with a win in the first half of the traditional Early Daily Double. Aforementioned shotcaller happens to be two for three with locally based OR Allowance jumpers in the 68-80 day bracket ( $18 & $6 ), and this one may have needed the most recent after faltering with the quick middle move last out. Both the #1 A SILENT PLAYER (IRE) ( trainer 3:2-1-0 with second time starters going vertical @ 47 days or less ) and #1A FRENCH LIGHT (FR) ( barn 7:3-2-2 w/allowance stock who procured the jumping diploma 1-31 days back ) comprise decent halves of the J.S. entry. #2 PRAYER HOPE: Fisher kicks some bass w/3rd off the respite steeplechasers at this level ( 16-1 or undah ) as he's 22:8-2-2 with that type.

 

Race  2

1.Impazible Donna

2.Snicket

3.Bankers Daughter

#6 IMPAZIBLE DONNA hasn't seen the scene in a couple'a Bijou birthday's, but the adjusted figaro from the bow was a 62.3 ( which fits with these ), there's a bullet breeze on the ledger ( over this strip ), and the pre-layoff pilot returns ( which means a lot to us, as it shows that nothing untoward happened beneath him first time out. There ain't no world beaters signed on, and Saez in excellent form these days. #5 SNICKET has rolled three straight limons, as she's taken all the money while ending up a jealous bridesmaid in each, but the pedigree tells us she deserves another shot on the sand for potent connections. #3 BANKERS DAUGHTER was a nicely clear runner up in this race two fortnights ago, and should be in the thick of things late in the game. 

 

Race  3

1.Coilean Bawn

2.Quiet Dignity

3.Cap de Creus

#3 COILEAN BAWN may have appeared to have been a bit flat when finishing a so so third last time out, but she did in fact replicate the maiden breaking speed figure in her first try against winners, and that's never an easy thing to do. C-Squared ( from a fairly small sampling ) has won with half of his six runners of this ilk who crashed the party last out. Mild selection in the most ( albeit truncated ) competitive race of the card. #2 QUIET DIGNITY gets some class relief today while picking up the meet's leading rider in Irad Ortiz. #4 CAP DE CREUS rounds out the top three in a race where we guarantee one of these will hit the board.   ; )

 

Race  4 

1.Dash to the Top

2.Bold Article

3.Joqular

#2 DASH TO THE TOP down the lane. #6 BOLD ARTICLE merely split the field when starting things out at Hallandale Beach, Florida 34 days in the rear, but was forced out at the onset, and who are we not to give a Constitution a chance to make amends, the way his progeny are going these days? #5 JOQULAR showed little when beginning from a disadvantageous post in the career starter, but $40,000 bred animal is properly spotted here, and Manny Man sticks around. 

 

Race  5

1.Cherokee Song

2.Kitten's Romance 

3.Checksandbalances ( Ire )

Randi Persaud surely isn't known for his turf routers, but has a decent one here in #1 CHEROKEE SONG. Three year old has hit the board in 4 of 6 on the gramma ( outrunning her odds each & every time ), with the lone blemishes coming off a layoff ( when losing by 5+ at 49-1 in a race where the six that finished in front of her came back to go 6:2-0-2 in their followup engagements ) and a length loss right here at the end of July. Gal draws snugly and may be overlooked once again. #9 KITTEN'S ROMANCE displayed stark improvement from the first start to the next, and is a majah playah if able to replicate that. #3 CHECKSANDBALANCES (IRE) is another who was better second time out, but may have outran ( outrun? ) her pedigree a bit that day, so we'll leave beneath.  OFF TURF: 8-9-7-5-3

 

Race  6 

1.Grudge

2.Lady Macho

3.Classie Sadie

#2 GRUDGE gave up the ghost rather readily versus tougher on the sod most recently, but filly placed in her lone dirt attempt, and Cancel to Irad is an appreciable jockey switch, Live shot at an all time low. #4 LADY MACHO was shipped up to the Lakes in hopes of an easy score, but things didn't quite turn out that way, so he's back in for a tag with blinkers being affixed for the first time. #7 CLASSIE SADIE hasn't been better than 4th in six straight, so she now has the "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. Career best numero came in a local stakes try right here, and gal draws well for the second off the L/O jammie.   NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Island Commish

2.Old Chestnut

3.Competitive Saint

#6 ISLAND COMMISH has a fair amount of back class & cuts back to one turn today after fading late in the game over his last troika. Slimmest of edges in a heat where we were unable to exclude anyone with our first looksie. We came thisclose to putting #5 OLD CHESTNUT in the top spot ( because of Casse's 2-5 record with ungraded Saratoga turf sprinters who were 1-2-3 less than 66 days ago ( 16-1 or lower ), but we just couldn't do it, as he's on a monstrous duck for the meet ( oh-lawdy-fer-31 ). #3 COMPETITVE SAINT is two for two, with the last tally coming on the Mellon; logical.  OFF TURF: 8-1-5-3-2

 

Race  8 

1.Atomic Blonde

2.Blowout ( GB )

3.Fullness of Life ( Ire )

#1 ATOMIC BLONDE hasn't been in action for half the length of a calendar, and curiously has been removed from the Pletcher ban & handed over to Abreu ( who got a busted wing on the backside Saturday ). Four year old has been a part of the triple in all starts but one, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #4 BLOWOUT (GB) has led in 12 of her last 16 points of call, is graded stakes placed, and has yet to finish out of the money; deserving favorite. #7 FULLNESS OF LIFE (IRE) completes the "Hot Dog/Bangers & Mash/Corned Beef" triple based on a couple of okay starts off the bench, and as we're hearing that the trainer recently passed away, we hope that if we lose -- this one wins.  OFF TURF: 8-1-2-3-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Let Them Eat Cake

2.Thrill

3.Dial Me Up

#8 LET THEM EAT CAKE came along nicely to pick up 20% of the pot in the local foray, and Ian Wilkes has a solid 3 for 5 ledger with runners of this sort who made the tri 1-55 days back, and the payoffs for that grouping were $3, $18 & $6. With three turf figures of 69, 71 & 74, who knows where this one's ceiling is in that regards. #2 THRILL was a mite rank pre start when beginning her working like on the gramma back in June, but didn't disgrace herself that day, and stepped forward nicely when trying the brown stuff next time out. Expecting a nice effort back on the verde. #7 DIAL ME UP has completed the exacta in both starts to date & has some fair turf pedigree on the page.  OFF TURF: 2-12(MTO)-3-4-7 


Saratoga         ( Current ):     53-292     ( $451.50 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-20 ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %     106-292 ( 36.3% )( As of Wednesday morning ) 


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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