SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 8/22 - Del Mar - Del Mar Oaks & Pacific Classic


Just a reminder that for today's Saratoga full card selections & analysis, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 8/22 - Del Mar - Del Mar Oaks & Pacific Classic


Race 9 - Del Mar Oaks 

1.California Kook

2.Carpe Vinum

3.Trickle In

You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the turf Beyers for the #2 CALIFORNIA KOOK, as this one has gotten better with each passing start. While we'll grant you that she is a bit short on class and speed figs, who exactly knows where here ceiling is, and with a cozier draw and Maldonado taking over, we wouldn't be surprised to see her a bit more engaged today; chance to cause a ruckus at a big price. #1 CARPE VINUM is another who seems to be figuring things out as she goes along, and we have no qualms about including a double digit runner who's yet to finish out of the superfecta -- despite a lesser pilot taking over. #6 TRICKLE IN has won three of four, but as the lone loss came in a "second off the break" deal, we'll slide beneath.   OFF TURF: 4-7-10-8-6  NOTE: AS OF 5:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race 10 - Pacific Classic

1.Higher Power

2.Maximum Security


#2 HIGHER POWER has been a stranger to the winner's circle slince winning this race by more than five last year, but he hasn't disgraced himself, as four showings in five outings ( PLUS earning 50 large for finishing last in the Pegasus World Cup -- NURSE !! ) have netted him a nice chunk of change. Five year old has hit the board in two of three "second off the shelf" engagements, and if our third choice can stretch out our secondary selection a little bit, perhaps this chap puts the swoop to 'em. #5 MAXIMUM SECURITY was all out to win by a honkah when making his first start for Lidocaine Bob ( a trainer who was suspended for 15 days after his Arkansas Derby winner was disqualified for a banned substance ) after being transferred from Jason Servis ( a trainer who was arrested for administering illegal substances, et al, to his horses ), and we see no reason to exclude. #1 MIDCOURT fell just short in the aforementioned heat, and completed the triple in his only third off the bench jammie. 

Saratoga         ( Current ):     49-273     ( $415.40 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-19 ( 26.3% )   Favorites Win %       98-264 ( 36.1% )( As of Saturday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout