SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/27
  
  

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One was the loneliest numero for us yesterday ( but at least it was our $7 play of the day ).   


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #4 Value Proposition ( GB )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/27

 

Race  1

1.Imperio D 

2.After Prom Party

3.Majestic View

#6 IMPERIO D has hit the board in four straight, and has been a part of the super in all his dirt starts but one. Two of the best outings have came when breaking from the outermost two slots, and while no standout, this is a sensible selection. #4 AFTER PROM PARTY disappointed in the comebacker down at Elmont on 7/11, but gelding posted a decent figaro right here last year, and there's a bullet breeze on the ledger, which lends hope to a rebound. #1 MAJESTIC VIEW drops for the second straight time and now has blinkers affixed. May perk up a bit. 

 

Race  2

1.Prairie Wings

2.All Others Follow ( GB )

3.Fashion Mo

#2 PRAIRIE WINGS reminds me a bit of a filly I saw up here as a kid in the mid 80's -- Snooze You Lose -- who began her career with six consecutive placings. This one has been a jealous bridesmaid in her opening quartet under three different sets of circumstances, and after the game turf effort, appears to have a solid shot once again. #6 ALL OTHERS FOLLOW has improved with each passing start, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Fourth different pilot in as many calls to the post is the meet;s 3rd leading rider, as Pletcher & Brown duke it out for the title. #5 FASHION MO comes in today off a career best performance and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-5-4

 

Race  3

1.Sentry

2.Ninety One Assault

3.Seismic Wave

#5 SENTRY closed with a rush to lose by only a neck right here on opening weekend  ( which seems like a loooong, long time ago ), and owns a win and a fourth from as many second off the layoff tries, is 4:1-2-0-1 on the inner, and Shug has a snazzy 4 for 6 mark with locally based optional turf stayers who hit the board 11-67 days ago ( $9, $13, $17 & $19 ). #2 NINETY ONE ASSAULT has partaken in the superfecta in four of five "2nd off the shelf" engagements and is up for sale for the first time in quite some time. #1 SEISMIC WAVE is clearly the class of this allotment and has won two of three when loading first.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-6-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 VALUE PROPOSITION (GB) fills the bill, as barn is 0-6 with locally based optional turfers who were IN the money 41-67 days back.  NOTE: AS OF 12:56, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-6-1.

 

Race  4 

1.Tactician 

2.Height

3.Mr Fidget

#5 TACTICIAN split the field in his local bow 25 days back, and note that the sole "second off the respite" deal yielded an adjusted speed figure of 76.7. While we're not envisioning a number of that magnitude today, anything close to it would put him in the catbird's seat ( whatever that means ). "I don't keep score, judge." "Well how do you measure yourself against other golfers?" "By HEIGHT." Caddyshack quotes aside, the #4 has a decent shot based on the solid placings in his last duet. #6 MR. FIDGET didn't show much in the three turf attempts, but goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, and his only dirt start on a fast track ended up with a 63.4 adj. BSF.   NOTE: AS OF 12:58, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1A-2-4.

 

Race  5

1.Axtell

2.Banana Thief

3.Dirty

#3 AXTELL is a steady if unspectacular sort who has crashed the super in 10 of 11, and although this seven year old "horse" ( You keep those boys hangin', my man ! ) hasn't found the winner's circle in more than two years, we may get some value here, as 6% shotcaller is 2 for 5 with turf dashers who were ITM < 34 days back @ 28-1 or undah ( $5 & $34 ). #7 BANANA THIEF has done decent work on the Mellon and can make amends off the recent disappointment. #5 DIRTY won his only start when in for a tag, is one for two in second off the bench forays, and has done his best work at this trip.  OFF TURF: 8-2B(MTO)-1X(MTO)-3-5  NOTE: AS OF 1:00, DUE TO MULTIPLE SCRATCHES THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: DUE TO ANOTHER SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-2-4.

 

Race  6 

1.Lake Chicot

2.Little Red Frog

3.Glass Ceiling

#7 LAKE CHICOT is wheeled right back after being claimed for twenty a week ago, and although the initial turf spin left something to be desired, it was in fact her first start off a 3 1/2 month hibernation, and we see that the maternal grandsire was 9:3-2-0 going over the blades. Eight pound reduction in the weight department is nice, but after leading the jockey colony for one race, Cardenas has lost his next 71 ( Nurse !! ) and according to "Horse Race Fan Site" ( a must Twitter follow ) is on a grisly 1 fer 90 run. Demand value. #1A LITTLE RED FROG always seems to give an honest account of herself, but as a nibbler by rote, we'll slide beneath. #4 GLASS CEILING is one for two when up for sale & has decent pedigree for today's initial turf attempt.  OFF TURF: 4-2-7-3-1  NOTE: AS OF 1:06, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-5-3.

 

Race  7

1.A Great Time

2.Rose Flower ( Ger ) 

3.Miss Gossip ( Ire )

#4 A GREAT TIME outran her odds in a big way to complete the triple at 34-1 in the License Fee ( the fourth straight time this miss has been a part of the action ), and this one may be sitting on another good effort today. Slight edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #1 ROSE FLOWER (GER) displayed very little when apparently overmatched in the G3 event down at BEL, but it's difficult to argue with the overall body of work, which includes a tally in her only start off a layoff going over firm ground. #5 MISS GOSSIP (IRE) completes the "Coca Cola/Lowenbrau/Jameson" tri based on her best work having come at this dist. ( 16:3-1-4 ).  OFF TURF: 6-1-3-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 1:08, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-7-2.

 

Race  8 

1.Danny California

2.Texas Swing 

3.Will Sing For Wine

#6 DANNY CALIFORNIA destroyed NYBAN1X foes at this trip last week, and as you rarely see that race for 2X anymore, Noda puts this one into open waters, which is fine by us. Fella has a two for three record at Saratoga Springs, and is 7:3-1-1-1 when breaking from the outermost two slots ( as some horses prefer to not be bottled up ) compared to a 20:2-2-3-6 record from other slots. #2 TEXAS SWING has improved w/each call to the post ( including a showing in the Tampa Bay Derby ) and Johnny V. ( astride for the maiden breaker ) climbs on again. #4 WILL SING FOR WINE is displaying an uncharacteristic bullet move and that's reason enough to chunk in.   NOTE: AS OF 1:10, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  9 

1.Mo Me Mo My

2.Overheated

3.Secure Connection

#4 MO ME MO MY was an honest runner up versus what we would consider to be a slightly weaker allotment, and 16% shotcaller has a crisp 7:4-2-0 boxscore with female turf sprinters at this level who were 1-2-3 < three dozen days back & are 21-1 or beneath. The winners in that survey were a healthy $7, $8, $12 & $31, and this one hung up am adj. 90.3 in her only "3rd off the absence" deal. #2 OVERHEATED lost by less than two at 55-1 in her sole turf outing off of this kind of L/O scenario, and comes in today off a nice placing in this event on the 6th of the month. #6 SECURE CONNECTION got up in time to win the last race on the first day here, finishing up the last furlong & a half in a zippy 16.34. The place horse from that day got her Polaroid taken in her followup engagement, improving her Beyer figure by three points in the process.  OFF TURF: 7-5-4-1-8   NOTE: AS OF 1:12, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-1-8.


Saratoga         ( Current ):     54-301     ( $458.80 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-20 ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %     109-301 ( 36.2% )( As of Thursday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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