SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/28
  
  

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Three chalky winners on the day yesterday, but we were backed up by three Triple boxes of $99, $27 ( cold ) & $66, four Rolling Pk. 3's of $67, $48, $144 & $33, a Rolling Pk. 4 of $428, a Rolling Pk. 5 of $800, and a Rolling Pk. 6 of $274. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/28

 

Race  1

1.Captain Bombastic

2.Chowda

3.Dream Bigger

#2 CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC was a mite overmatched in the Allen Jerkens ( nee, the Kings Bishop ) on the first of the month, but was by no means disgraced that day, as the New York bred finished 4th of 11 at 28-1. Colt makes his third start off the layoff today, and is reunited with the pilot from the debut tally. $80,000 auction purchase is yet another example this year of how good the NYB program is, and fella should be no worse than 3rd here, for those looking to grind out five cents on the dollar. Who wants CHOWDA in this spot !! Well, if don't want the #1, then perhaps you want this classic 'Family Guy' clip involving some chowda ! ( NOT for the faint of heart ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHUMaJphBdE ). Anyhoo, this one has won in three straight on a glib surface, and has been working exceptionally well for today's comebacker. #5 DREAM BIGGER goes turf to dirt & two turns to one for Rudy Rod, and should be right there at the end. 

 

Race  2

1.Princess Fawzia

2.Hurricane Breeze

3.Make Or Break

#4 PRINCESS FAWZIA is but a nose and a head shy of a poyfect three for three ledger, has never been worse than second at any point of call, and Rice is a nice 4 for 6 with allowance turf stayers who crashed the party less than 56 days back & are 10-1 or less ( $4, $10, $13 & $18 ). Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #5 HURRICANE BREEZE comes in today toting along a lifetime best numero, and has been a part of the superfecta in all races but one. #2 MAKE OR BREAK ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) won by a pole in her lone "third off the L/O" try and may come along for a piece.  OFF TURF: 4-5-7-3-6(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.I Saw It All 

2.Wardenofthenorth

3.Continuum

#2 I SAW IT ALL split the field in this race at 13-1 a bit more than three weeks back, and while Cardenas leaves a LOT to be desired, we'll give him a tepid nod with the crisp morning move nine days in the rear. #1 WARDENOFTHENORTH was kept in jail after being claimed first time out, and after dropping a peg, procured the sheepskin at Belmont on 7/11. Gelding seems properly spotted for his first try vs. winners. #3 CONTINUUM has only beaten home three in his last duet, buy we'll give him another shot for today's third start off the respite.  NOTE: AS OF 12:40, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Stage Left 

2.Cobble Hill

3.Queen's Mason

#2 STAGE LEFT was an extremely lively runner up in his sole "3rd off the break" engagement, and one thing you'll notice about both of the starts leading up to the sharp performance, is that he had dropped about 15% from the first off the layoff try to the next -- a scenario that is nearly identical to today's. #1 COBBLE HILL ( an area in downtown Brooklyn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobble_Hill,_Brooklyn , which is apropos, with the father being Verrazano and all ) was more than doubled up in class after being snagged two back, and that proved to be fortuitous, as he completed the exacta in a sharp effort. Best work has come from the innermost three slots ( 4:1-2-1 ) compared to all other slots ( 6:1-0-0 ), and this one is now claim protected. #4 QUEEN'S MASON rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  5

1.Party at Pages

2.Dance Hall Queen

3.Rock N Warrior ( AE )

#2 PARTY AT PAGES fought the good fight when losing by just a honkah right here on the 24th of July, and a hot Looie gets the callback this afternoon. From a trainer's aspect, 'Miah has won with four of his six second time starters on the verde, who were 1-2-3 first out ( 50-1 or beneath ), w/mutuels of $9 x 2, $11 & $4. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #1 DANCE HALL QUEEN, as there's a nicely hidden breeze amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves. #12 ROCK N WARRIOR (AE) needs a bit of help in order to make it over to the frontside today, but has a little bit of green in the family tree, and the most recent workout wasn't too shabby.  OFF TURF: 2-5-3-8-4

 

Race  6 

1.Dovima

2.Rapido Gatta

3.Barista Vixen

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #2 DOVIMA displayed some improvement from the first start to the next, but still ended up with a gut wrenching defeat, despite a change in tactics being employed. Gal is much better bred for the brown than the green, so we're expecting another solid performance in this spot. #4 RAPIDO GATTA was handed over to Jimmy Ferraro after hitting the board in six of seven for JCE, and despite the back to back layoff lines, this one is showing a nice 36 & 2 move at Oklahoma on Monday ( a work which we saw and was done in a comfortable manner ). #7 BARISTA VIXEN showed a nice "Z" pattern in the October overture, when losing 5 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining 8 3/4 lengths from that point to the finish line. January foal is now administered Lasix, and there are a couple'a zippy workouts of late. 

 

Race  7

1.Sayyaaf

2.Matta

3.Ghoul ( Brz )

#2 SAYYAFF posted a lifetime low turf number when encountering a traffic jam right here a month back, but colt had improved over four straight just prior to that, and gets a jockey upgrade from Javy to Jose. Slight edge. #3 MATTA has been first or second over his last quartet, and the turf Beyers are showing a nice progression of 73-84-87, so who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Hard to fault those taking a favorable view. #6 GHOUL (BRZ) finished 3rd in an identical spot on the 29th of July, and how can one find fault that 6 fer 13 career record at the trip.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-9-1-10-12(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Irish Front 

2.Fed Funds

3.Wild Medagliad'oro

#2 IRISH FRONT returned off the elongated absence to snap up the sheepskin over this oval last month, and four returnees from that heat have since amassed a cumulative 4:2-1-0 mark in three different heats, with an average Beyer improvement of 9.9 pts.; Pletcher owns a solid 4-10 mark with 2nd off the shelf allowance dirt dashers who broke their maidens most recently ( $4, $8, $7 & $6 ), but with the 239 Tommy for the trip, you must beware the bounce. #2 FED FUNDS has improved with each passing start and shoots for the hat trick today. #6 WILD MEDAGLIAD'ORO has a decent overall mark on the brown stuff, but we'll leave underneath as Casse has the big goose egg this summer. 

 

Race  9 

1.Micheline

2.Sweet Melania

3.Cat's Pajamas

#2 MICHELINE amazingly starts on her 9th different course today -- from just ten outings -- and has four clunkers and five solid efforts to her credit. Three of the poor performances were followed up by crisp ones, so that's something to hang your hat on here, as well as the fact that the meet's third leading pilot gets the assignment. #2 SWEET MELANIA found the line first in her only trip after a break in the action, and got her first victory in her lone start on the Mellon. #6 CAT'S PAJAMAS burned some bread in the Lake Placid, but s she'd gotten the job done in two straight just before that, we'll chunk in w/a chance to make amends.  OFF TURF: 3-7-4-2-9

 

Race  10

1.Memories Eternal 

2.Little Red Button

3.Beyond Brown

#2 MEMORIES ETERNAL was a solid & decently clear runner up against weaker down in Laurel at the end of July, and as there are no world beaters signed on, Deiter seems to have picked a nice spot to ship northward. #1 LITTLE RED BUTTON gets a jockey upgrade off the decent showing on the inner nine days back, and draws more snugly for a barn that's two of three w/those going long on the lawn @ this level ( ITM 1-17 days ago ). #6 BEYOND BROWN has lost ground in the lane in all of her calls to the post, but has enough speed to land a share.  OFF TURF: 8-4-7-9-6 


Saratoga         ( Current ):     57-310     ( $471.50 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-20 ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %     113-310 ( 36.4% )( As of Friday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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