SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/29


Just three chalky winners yesterday. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #5 Zainalarab ( Only on a fast track )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/29


Race  1

1.Enough Love


3.Happy Sophia

#7 ENOUGH LOVE makes her third start off the layoff this afternoon, and the only other time that was attempted, a game maiden breaking score was the end result. Gal has been a part of the superfecta in all starts but the bow, and rates a big shot if able to save some ground. #1 QUEENDOM was a well beaten but well clear 3rd in this race on the 5th of July, and should be in the thick of things once again. #6 HAPPY SOPHIA fell short by just a half length in her lone start off of this kinda L/O scenario and has a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the first time. 


Race  2

1.Ballagh Rocks

2.En Wye Cee

3.Spirit Animal

#6 BALLAGH ROCKS has a bunch of back class, always gives a goo account of himself, and seven year old "horse" ( you hang on to 'dem marbles, buddy boy ! ) is two fer two in 3rd off the bench jammies. Slight edge. #10 EN WYE CEE handled his first turf attempt quite well, thank you, as Pletcher charge rallied to miss by just a noggin' when going five wide. Four year old is better bred for the turf than the dirt, so that result was likely not an aberration, and we're expecting another solid performance. #8 SPIRIT ANIMAL has improved with each passing start over firm ground ( being a neck shy of a poyfect three of three over the stuff ), and after the claim was voided for a "technicality" two back, this one is still protected against the purchase.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-2(MTO)-3-4-11(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 11(MTO)-10-9(MTO).


Race  3




#10 BODECREAM gets a trainer & jockey upgrade since last in action, and aside from doing his kangaroo impersonation last out, had put forth a solid string of four straight efforts prior to that. Would be aided by some pace to cut into, but looms a legit threat. #4 L'IMPERATOR (FR) has won three of four, and like most Euro shippers, sheds a bunch of weight & gets the miracle drug for the first time. Doubt you'll be getting 5-1 here, but he's difficult to dismiss. #1 VANZZY is a bit of an in and outer, but from a speed figure perspective, you can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside of 'em, as he definitely seems to have found a new niche. May sit a perfect trip.  OFF TURF: 5-8(MTO)-7-9-1


Race  4 

1.Annie Rocks

2.Cheatham Hill

3.Tied Up

Although two are from a small sampling, we have three decent sets of DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em... #6 ANNIE ROCKS goes from Gutierrez to Hernandez today ( which is like getting five pounds off these days ), and the ol' bay mare owns a 1 for 5 mark in this zip code. DeLauro doesn't win a lot, but he's scored with two of his three turf to dirt sprinters at 33-1 or undah ( $13 & $20 ) and we'll take a shot at a price. #3 CHEATHAM HILL hasn't been in action since besting cheaper on the first of November, and ended up being claimed from the subsequently indicted Jason Servis that day. When it comes to his locally based mid level dirt dashers off of this kind of break ( 32-1 or less ), fellow Brooklynite Zito is two for two ( $12 & $65 ), and recognize that Cancel guided this one to an 18-1 placing first time out. #1A TIED UP sure is a win machine, ain't he? $5,000 bred animal has won a whopping 12 of 23 career outings ( including a recent skein of 7 of 8 ), and Baby Englehart is a lovely 6:5-1-0 with second off the snag dirt stock coming in off a win $2.80 ).  


Race  5


2.My Roxy Girl

3.Love and Love 

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3 !! ( Not really, but aren't we clever? )  #1 LETMETAKETHISCALL has been a part of the triple in seven straight ( which incorporates two placings in as many starts at the Spa ), and red hot Noda barn has a snappy 5:4-0-1 mark with Saratoga runners of this ilk who crashed the fiesta when last in action ( 7-1 or beneath ), and the mutuels for that sampling were $6, $4, $8 & $13. It's no secret that #2 MY ROXY GIRL has been our favorite horse in training for quite some time, as this < $2,000 auction purchase recently went over the half million dollar mark, and if you see her in action, it's so obvious by her running style that she tries so hard each & every time. Irad piloted this one to a runner up finish in their lone pairing, and she can definitely land a share once again. #3 LOVE AND LOVE found the line first in her lone "2nd off the respite" spin, and it came in a T to D deal as well.  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Charleston Strong



#9 CHARLESTON STRONG has worked four times out of the gate for today's overture, and usually, we don't like to see more than two, as it could be a sign that he's a bit tardy out of the starting apparatus. Don't think that's the case here, as there's a bullet half and a second best of 21 move right here on the ledger. 40K bred animal went for 15X that last year, and January foal has a 2-4 month maturity edge on the entire field. Nice trainer stat in play here, as 'Miah happens to be 4-10 with those fitting ALL these exact parameters ( any jock ) at 16-1 or less ( $10 x 3 & $16 ). If he can outbreak our secondary selection, just may go all the way. #10 HAPPYMAC went 59 & 2 right here a dozen days back, and while we'll be using, keep in mind that progeny of Runhappy are a mere 1-22 thus far; on the positive side, The As Man is a crisp 4-7 with those fitting these conditions exactly ( $2.67 return on investment ). #1 NEWBOMB is another who's been conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner for today's first afternoon trip to the frontside. 


Race  7


2.Long Weekend


These three and no more for all our rolling action. Really looking forward to watch #2 YAUPON in action today. Uncle Mo runner improved by about 23.8% in the adjusted Beyer department when facing the winners for the first time, and that's never easy to do. Chap has two wire to wire scores, at two different venues, beneath two different channels, and while facing some salty critters here, has the looks of being a potential freak. #3 LONG WEEKEND went coast to coast like butter and toast in his sole "second off the shelf" try, and could be engaged in a broiling first quarter with the above. Can't toss, by any stretch of the imagination, but if they hook up early on, it may set things up for a horse like #1 BASIN, who owns a win over the track and may pick up some pieces late. 


Race  8 

1.Mind Control

2.Majestic Dunhill


Today's featured dirt race is the Grade 1 Forego, and for some edification on the all time great, we've enclosed a 22 minute documentary right here , and while a tad dated, it's pretty nifty !!  We have three decent sets of trainer's stats in play, and as we're a bit tired, let's get to 'em in a no frills manner.   #10 MIND CONTROL: ( one for one right here ) will be brought over by a bossman who has an unblemished four for four ledger with those going short on the sand at this level in the 20-50 day area code ( ITM in last ) @ 12-1 or underneath ( $5, $6, $22 & $23 ). #9 MAJESTIC DUNHILL: ( who won his only green to brown attempt ) is conditioned by an hombre who's tallied a win in half of his six runners going from the blades to the sand, off L/O's of 53-57 days ( $22, $15 & $3 ). #2 WHITMORE is such a fun horse to root for, ain't he? In addition to the obvious resume', 14% shedrow is 5:3-2-0 w/2nd off the hiatus graded dirt stock going short off breaks of 20-50 days ( 9-1 or lowah ), with payoffs of $4, $3 & $9. 


Race  9 


2.Channel Maker

3.Cross Border

If the rains stay away, this should be a fun rendition of the Sword Dancer.  #5 CORELLI didn't disgrace himself in the North American debut back in June, but was confidently spotted in the United Nations at the Shore, and performed better when having Lasix & blinkers added to the makeup. Jockey upgrade & weight reduction in play today, and you should know that he lost by barely a whisker in the lone "3rd of the layoff" attempt; Tomas 3 for 6 with graded turf routers who were 1-2-3 17-67 days back ( $12, $26 & $16 ). #4 CHANNEL MAKER may have lost a step ( winless in ten straight ), but has oodles of back class, and playability rises if you can get more than 6-1; barn has a 3 fer 7 record with SAR runners fitting this criteria who crashed the board off of this kinda break ( 14-1 or < ) with returns of $6 & $8 & $20. #6 CROSS BORDER was properly moved up to first in the Bowling Green, and is an obvious factor once again.  OFF TURF: 3-8-1-6-2


Race  10

1.O'Gotten Girl 

2.Len Lo Lady

3.Capstone Girl

#7 O'GOTTEN GIRL more than outran her turf pedigree when closing out the triple first time outta the box, and as the Tomlinson for today's trip is substantially better for the dirt than the sod, we're expecting an even better showing today. Play of the meet if the track is fast. #1 LEN LO LADY is a Feb. foal with a fat Tommy & back to back bullets; we'll bite at 15-1. #4 CAPSTONE GIRL completes the Babe Ruth triple based on a bow you can put a line through, and some decent pedigree.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 ZAINALARAB fills the bill 'cause we like our top choice so much.  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, IF THE TRACK IS FAST, OUR AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-9-7 WITH NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  11

1.Miss Jimmy


3.Midnight Surprise

#8 MISS JIMMY has been first or second in 10 of 11 starts, and what the hell's wrong with that? #7 MIDNIGHT SURPRISE was an easy enough victress when starting things out right here on the 25th of July, and the runner up from that day got her photo taken next time out, improving by six points in the BSF department in the process; there is ample room for improvement here. #6 FLASHPACKINBARBIE has been a part of the exacta in three of four, and should be forwardly placed early on.  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION IF THE TRACK IS WET.

Saratoga         ( Current ):     60-320     ( $482.40 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-20 ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %     116-320 ( 36.1% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout