SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 9/2 - Final Week - Steeplechase Day


Let's finish up the meet with a flourish, shall we ! 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 9/2 - Final Week - Steeplechase Day


Race  1


2.Cracker Factory ( GB )


#8 MUTASAAWY hasn't shown much in the two comeback attempts, but we feel this 10 year old has a puncher's chance for his 10th win in the day's opener. Looking at the past history ( is there any other kind of history? ), this elder statesman has done quite well in "3rd off the L/O" spots, as he's 7:2-4-1 in that regards, compared to a lesser 42:7-5-6 record otherwise. What we really like about that stat is that in FIVE of the prior races, he finished off the board. Hmmmm..... #2 CRACKER FACTORY (GB) is one for four off of this type of L/O scenario and is backed by some potent connections. #1 IRANISTAN won in a nearly identical spot right here on Bijou's birthday, and is logical once again. 


Race  2


2.Empress Luciana

3.Vinda Machine

#2 BUFFET got served first time out down in Elmont, but broke from a disadvantageous post that day, and not only was this one dropped from a gal who won half of her 26 dirt sprints ( 305K ), but is a half to a 3 fer 7 dirt dasher as well. Deserving of another shot in a race with no standouts. #4 EMPRESS LUCIANA is back on the sand after two disastrous turf tries, and could perk up at a price. #3 VINDA MACHINE has partaken in the superfecta in three straight dirt attempts & gets in light.  NOTE: AS OF 11:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRTATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3



3.Searing Chase

#5 BREITHORN takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged by Rice for 30 large 2 1/2 weeks ago, and the first thing she does is administer the "Wonder Drug" to this solid check earner. Colt draws well and lays over all but one from a speed figure perspective. #4 NASHVILLE went more than 6 1/2 times the stud fee at auction back in 2018, and The As Man has this one motoring right along in the mornings for today's initial spin. Factor that in with the 408 Tomlinson figure, and this one just may be the real deal. Check the changes, however, as Irad has been off for a few days as of this writing. #1 SEARING CHASE improved by about 10% from the first start to the next, and his 3rd different rider to date is the leading jock @ the stand.   NOTE: AS OF 11:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 

1.Cause of Action


3.Castle Casanova

#2 CAUSE OF ACTION was an also ran with no palpable excuse at the end of July, but had put forth two solid efforts just prior to that, and as there's no scary drop, we'll afford him a chance to rebound. #8 MEGACITY has closed out the exacta over his last duet, and can't argue with anyone who feels that ( or a better result ) is once again within reach. #11 CASTLE CASANOVA has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but is available for purchase for the first time, and has some decent turf pedigree for his first try over the stuff.  OFF TURF: 5-2-4-3-11


Race  5




#7 GOLCONDA goes turf to dirt this afternoon, and the last time this grey fella attempted that switch, he outran his odds when completing the super at 17-1 ( 56.1 adj. figaro ). Slimmest of margins in a race that's hard to hug, despite the rider who's colder than a Klondike bar. #8 TALESPIN encountered a bit of trouble right here 27 days back, but nonetheless was able to get the show dough at 69-1, two spots behind a next out winner; would be aided by any pace to cut into. #1 RINGGOOD presumably will be catching a fast track for just the second time today, and is eligible to improve off the 5/2 flop with that comebacker under his girthstrap.   NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 


2.Mo Me Mo My

3.Alley to Calvary 

After posting a career best fugaro on the 21st of June, #4 DOLL wasn't much of a Chatty Cathy in the followup engagement, when besting just one horse & the chase ambulance. Filly may have bounced a bit that day, and as she was a lively runner up in her only "third off the bench" deal, we'll nibble in hopes of a better effort today. #6 MO ME MO MY flopped in the slop, but has shown some sass on the grass, and honey got some money two back on this track. #3 ALLEY TO CALVARY comes in today toting along a lifetime best BSF, and has the hood added off that performance. We'll chunk in as we've always been fond of trainers not scared to make a change off a positive effort. OFF TURF: 8-13(AE)-10-9-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7


2.Bluegrass Parkway

3.Mini P ( Ire ) 

#9 PROQUESTOR is a nibbler by rote ( 25:1-3-5 ), but if you can excuse the extremely wide return, but if you can see your way clear to the penultimate try, then what you have is an adjusted Beyer speed figure that while a bit lower than some in here, definitely puts him in the thick of things. Exponentially speaking, what you're getting is a slightly lesser animal at substantially higher odds. #3 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY was an even third in his sole start off of this kinda L/O, and recently showed on the inner; sensible. #4 MINI P (IRE) as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 3-1(MTO)-2-7-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.Yankee Division

2.Freaky Styley


#2 YANKEE DIVISION was a non entity when going over the blades for the first time nearly six weeks back, and is promptly switched back to what will invariably be his preferred surface from here on out. Gelding is a bit of an in and outer, and despite going two turns on the brown stuff for the first time, should be able to sit this trip, being a Midnight Lute out of a Ghostzapper mare. #1 FREAKY STYLEY has yet to finish out of the exacta, and that includes a pair of placings right here, and a win off the shelf. Not quite sure about this one getting the second turn, but we'll chunk in. #4 EVALUATOR has fared decently here, and in second off the break deals. May grind out a share. 


Race  9 

1.Zippy Baby

2.Fire at Will

3.Nathan Detroit

Featured race of the day is the With Anticipation stakes for a hundred large, and as we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft, you may want to tread lightly.  #3 ZIPPY BABY has improved w/ each passing start, and while she may appear a bit light from a numbers perspective, she is one of three with the all important win going 2X, and the runner up from the maiden breaker was photogenic in the subsequent outing as well. #5 FIRE AT WILL was in the back half of the field first time out, but the numbah came back okay, and being a Declaration of War out of a Kitten's Joy mare, there is certainly some room for improvement. #6 NATHAN DETROIT score right outta the box down at the Pea Patch 55 days in the rear, but there's an excellent chance she outran her lineage that afternoon, so we'll keep beneath.  OFF TURF: 6-1-4-3-2


Race  10


2.Spiritual King


#5 NIGHTSPOT begins his working life here, and does so with a couple'a decent, stamina building breezes on the worktab. Owner/Breeder/Trainer has won with both of his firsters this annum, and at whopping prices of $55 & $151 !!  While this is the first foal out of an unraced dam, you should know that the sire was 2:1-0-0-1 going over firm ground ( with the blemish coming in a G1 Shoemaker Mile ). Bombs away !  #1 SPIRITUAL KING has blinks affixed for today's third start off a hiatus, and has performed admirably in two turn starts over a firm surface. #3 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE has a lot of zip, gets a positive rider change, and takes the biggest drop in the biz; not hopeless.  OFF TURF: 5-4-10-11-8

Saratoga         ( Current ):     63-341     ( $494.80 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     125-341 ( 36.7% )( As of Wednesday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout