SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 9/4


Profitable day for us here yesterday. 

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis for the Kentucky Oaks & La Troienne, merely go pack one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 9/4


Race  1

1.Summer Brew

2.Rossa Veloce

3.Make Mischief

#5 SUMMER BREW finished just behind our secondary selection ( and today's race favorite ) #2 ROSSA VELOCE in their lone encounter a month ago, but as there's a four pound swing in the weight department this afternoon, and we like that 'Brew can flank 'Veloce, having drawn outside of that one. Irad fills in for Franco, who's down in Kentucky. #1 MAKE MISCHIEF has been a part of the exacta in three straight, which includes two placings in graded company. Logical, but we'll leave beneath as Casse has had an awful meet. 


Race  2

1.Saratoga Flash

2.Production Credit 

3.Re Created

#5 SARATOGA FLASH has been steadily improving in the morning works over the last two months, culminating with a sizzling 59 & 2 move on Sunday. We dig the name, as the "Flash" Stakes was one of the most famous ones run up here for many years, and could we have next year's Kentucky Derby favorite right here ? We're half kidding, of course, but it does look like Sackatoga may have another goodie on their hands. #9 PRODUCTION CREDIT hasn't shown much in the mornings for today's initial foray, but dam was 3-15 in dirt dashes, sire was 2 fer 7 doing the same, and this one is a half to Wrong Be, who was 8 of 23 @ this trip, banking 182 large. #10 RE CREATED is decently bred for this dx., and draws well for the bow. 


Race  3

1.Sky of Hook

2.More Graytful

3.Turbo Drive

#5 SKY OF HOOK didn't show a whole heck of a lot in his first start off nearly a year layoff, but the blinks are now a part of the package, and we like that Rudy's confident enough in this one to try stakes company once again. #2 MORE GRAYTFUL was all out to win by a sliver right here on the 5th of August, and as we've always dug when trainers have the confidence in making an equipment/medication change after a score, it's worth noting that the one time blinker experiment is done with. #3 TURBO DRIVE has hit the board in both dirt tries on a fast track and switches back to that surface today.


Race  4 

1.Mambonick ( AE )


3.Hurtgen Forest

#13 MAMBONICK (AE) needs a lot of help in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, will have a "Diamond in the Rough" type workout behind him, as there's a nicely hidden best of 22 deal back on 8/8, amidst a slew of hum drum works. Barn has won with their last two firsters ( $55 & $151 ! ), and we'll take a swing at a price. #4 ARROWHEART got smacked around a bit when beginning his working life on the 26th of July, but the pedigree says to give this one another chance. The kid Hernandez has been doing okay on bombers of late ( second with one of our selections at 68-1 on Sunday ). #2 HURTGEN FOREST ( the site of the longest battle the U.S. Army has ever fought ) closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 4-10-2-1-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:04 THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5



3.Classic Lady 

#1 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY went coast to coast like butter and toast in her first start off an 8+ month absence, and not only has this lightly raced mare yet two miss the superfecta, but three of her four best performances have come in her starts on the Inner, and one of them was a nose defeat in her only start when breaking from the pine. #3 WEGETSDAMUNNYS had an extremely awkward onset in the stakes try 37 days back, but finished a decent 3rd that day, and is now reunited with the pilot from her last score. #4 CLASSIC LADY has proven to have been a fantastic $50,000 claim by C-Squared, as she's earned 4X that amount since, and is on a skein of eight straight exacta finishes. Tough to argue with those taking a favorable view.  OFF TURF: 1-5-2-3-7


Race  6 

1.The Revenger

2.Advanced Strategy

3.Moonshine Maker

#2 THE REVENGER showed a little bit of early hoof when starting things out, and although this is the first foal out of a lightly raced mare, the maternal grandsire fared extremely well in one turn dirt races, and daddy's daddy was good at this trip as well. Expecting a bit of improvement going over the brown stuff for the first time. #3 ADVANCED STRATEGY has the best collection of speed figures in the lot, and has blinkers added for today's 3rd off the shelf attempt, while catching a fast track for the first time; deserving favorite. #4 MOONSHINE MAKER has a few nice workouts on the tab for today's first trip to the races. Despite the rider having a Nordic like summer, you should know that he's 8:3-1-1-1 when riding on the dirt for this shotcaller. 


Race  7

1.Hold the Salsa

2.Windy Nations

3.Market Alert

Funny Cide stakes on tap on a day where Sackatoga has a live firster earlier in the card, and obviously the big show manana.  After lighting up the tote board down in Elmont on the 12th of June, #7 HOLD THE SALSA was in the rear with the gear when overmatched in the Saratoga Special 26 days later. Colt is back at a more palatable level this afternoon, and although there's still a lot of wood to chop in regards to rebounding versus some bigger names, we'll take a swing at what will likely be double digit odds once again. #6 WINDY NATIONS ( one half of the uncoupled Maker entry ) was visually impressive when scoring at first asking down at the Shore two fortnights ago, and the owner/trainer "Cash"ed out afterwards, by selling this one for an undisclosed sum. New connections put this one in the deep end of the pool, in an effort to recoup some of that bread, and Irad is enticed to ride. Hmmmmm..... #3 MARKET ALERT is another back in w/ state breds after getting trounced in the local G2 event, and has blinkers added for a clan who's won with two of their last three dirt runners in that regards ( $31 & $10 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:05 THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.Miss Jen


3.Crescent Lady 

#4 MISS JEN was an even 3rd when managing to go three wide in a four horse deal a half'a month ago, and although the figure earned that day was so so, we consider this a bit of a drop class, and will give her a slight edge. #5 DRYNACHAN stretches out for the first time today, but don't let that City Zip lineage fool ya, many of his get do well at two turns on the gramma. With a switch to Carmouche, we wouldn't be surprised to see this one doesn't use some of her sprinter's speed early on. #1 CRESCENT LADY got up in time to procure the sheepskin right here on July 22nd, and slides in nine slots off that effort. Will need to find a seam late, but we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 6-5-7-1-4


Race  9 

1.Three Outlaws

2.Big Wonder

3.Awesome Ammo

#9 THREE OUTLAWS basically just trotted around the track to collect 5th place money in an off the turf event, but this one is substantially better on the verde, and is an obvious threat if able to get back to the subsequent start ( a win right here ). #3 BIG WONDER makes her 8th start in 92 days, but chronic nibbler has hit the board in four of his last five, and draws snugly. #8 AWESOME AMMO  hasn't been seen since the maiden breaker 16 months ago, and the adjusted figaro from that day ( 84.2 ) would be good enough to get the job done here -- if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 4-7-8-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:07 THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  10

1.Courageous Girl



#4 COURAGEOUS GIRL split the field when going two turns for the first time back in late July, and filly may move up a bit with that under her girthstrap. Meeeeeeeekest of selections in a race that's quite difficult to decipher. You can feel free to draw a line through the comeback attempt of #6 PLAYTONE, as he hadn't faced the starter in about seven months, and had the ugliest of starts. Eliminating the pre & post L/O running lines ( which we often do, to find some value ), this one has never missed an exacta, and is very well bred for today's first time going long. #7 MICROMILLION is a maiden facing winners, but Pletcher ain't no dummy, and as we saw a dirt router take a ton of money and win on Sunday, this one's stock goes up if she is live on the board. 


Race  11

1.Gucci Factor

2.Dot Matrix


#4 GUCCI FACTOR has been beset by many layoff lines throughout the years, but through it all, this lightly raced seven year old has compiled a sparkling resume', which includes wins in 7 of 11 starts on the sod. We're not quite sure what happened when eased in the Fort Marcy, but Joe sees fit to climb back aboard, and he has done great things aboard this gelding. Take a peek during the warmups if possible. #1 DOT MATRIX has hit the board in 20 of 35 lifetime outings, and should appreciate being back in with Empire breds. Should be no worse than third for those looking to grind out a few fazools in the show pool.  #7 THERAPIST is another win machine ( 8-18 ) who has a two for three record when last to load.  OFF TURF: 5-7-2-1-6


Race  12 



3.Freudian Analyst

#2 TEMPESTA has outran his odds in losing by a neck over his last duet ( using different tactics in each ), and should be sitting on another good one for today's 3rd off the bench try. #6 SHANDIAN ( from a BSF perspective ) is a bit of an in and outer with some fair turf sprints in the P.P.'s. May jazz things up a bit. #8 FREUDIAN ANALYST has shown improvement over his last septet, but that 31:M-1-3 lifetime mark is tough to swallow, so we'l leave underneath.  OFF TURF: 6-13(MTO)-5-9-12

Saratoga         ( Current ):     66-360     ( $514.90 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     130-360 ( 36.1% )( As of Friday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout