SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 9/5 - Jim Dandy & Woodward
  
  

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 Just a reminder that for today's Kentucky Derby selections & analysis, along with two other Grade One's, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 9/5 

 

Race  1

1.Make Motime

2.Kaz's Beach 

3.Bernardino

#8 MAKE MOTIME comes in today off a career best dirt figure, and if you were to prorate that to his best turf numero, than right off the bat, he's in the thick of things. Improving jock is actually 15th in the standings here ( with much of that success coming on longshots ), and this one may just surprise at a price. #1 KAZ'S BEACH is confidently shipped to the northeast after finishing a green -- but well clear -- runner up behind a next out winner at The Natty in his debut, and three returnees from that heat improved by an average of 8.33333333 points in their followup engagements. Jock is having a grisly meet, but he's done well for this outfit in the past. #7 BERNARDINO hasn't been seen in a couple of St. Valentines Days, but lightly raced five year old posted a couple'a decent adjusted figaros way back when, and Looie is enticed to ride.  OFF TURF: 3-1-5-2-8

 

Race  2

1.Win With Pride

2.Vincero

3.Deep Sea

Todd Pletcher will be emptying the barn over the next three days to try and win the trainer's title, and why not do so with #1 WIN WITH PRIDE ? This one has earned back a sizeable chunk of the $40,000 purchase price from back in February, and a win/claim today essentially gives Repole a profit on the whole transaction ( like he's actually counting pennies ), and gelding has done some fine work at the trip ( 9:3-1-4 ). Factor in a 4:1-2-0 mark when breaking from the pine, and you have the look of a live runner. #2 VINCERO has steadily improved over his last quartet, ( culminating with a win in this race at the end of July ) and is logical once again, despite the coldest jock in 'Toga Town taking the reins. #5 DEEP SEA takes the obligatory hike in the first start off the claim for a barn that has had some kind of meet; we'd be remiss in excluding. 

 

Race  3

1.Fractorzation

2.Saratoga Love

3.Graetz

#4 FRACTORZATION hasn't been in action since Hector was a pup, but the adj. figaro from the maiden breaker was an 88.8, and while we don't anticipate anything like that being posted today, a # within 10 pts. would make him a majah playah. #1 SARATOGA LOVE essentially replicated the Beyer from the maiden breaking effort when tangling winners for the first time, and that's something that's never easy to accomplish. Expecting this miss to be right in the thick of things once again. #5 GRAETZ is another who failed to regress after getting the diploma just prior, and should sit a nice stalking trip.  OFF TURF: 6-1-7-2-3

 

Race  4 

1.Pallas Athene

2.Lovely Lucky

3.Beau Belle

#6 PALLAS ATHENE ( cross entered on 9/3, so check the changes ) bested half the field at 17-1 in her second start off the bench, and in her only third off the L/O foray, she missed by only a neck, improving her BSF by a few pts. in the process. #3 LOVELY LUCKY ( also put in on Thursday ) has steadily clambered the Beyer Speed Figure ladder over her last quartet, and while she jumps into the deep end of the pool in search of the hat trick today, we'll chunk her in at what'll still be a decent offering. #2 BEAU BELLE ( second part of the uncoupled Albertrani entry ) rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-4-7-2-3

 

Race  5

1.Olympiad 

2.Regular Guy

3.Southern Passage 

#5 OLYMPIAD ( best Beyer in the bunch, best Tomlinson in the lot, facing none with a maturity edge ) crushes these. #4 REGULAR GUY ( "You created the 'Regular Guy' look ? I just bought two of your short sleeve pajama tops !" ) was in the rear with the gear first time out, but we like that there's no scary drop today, and the followup breezes tell us to give this one another chance to at least hit the board. #7 SOUTHERN PASSAGE broke inward from an disadvantageous slot for a firster in mid August -- essentially losing all hope -- but the bullet on Tuesday ( in addition to a better slot ) give us enough reason to toss into the cake batter at a big #. 

 

Race  6 

1.Timely Tradition

2.Pop a Choc

3.Forever Changed 

#5 TIMELY TRADITION had her three race win streak snapped when being given a positively grotesque ride by Rosario on the 9th of August, and as he lands on a Mott entrant, we're not quite sure if he got launched or just went with the bigger outfit. That being said, you simply have to love the 29:10-5-4 career mark, and we'll definitely give this one a chance to begin another skein in this spot. #4 POP A CHOC has been a vastly improved animal since going from green to brown ( to be quite honest, we're not understanding the turf outings, as she's poorly bred for the stuff ), and we see no reason another goodie isn't within reach for today's third start off the L/O. #3 FOREVER CHANGED outran her odds in a big way when closing out the triple ( in losing by just a length ) at 33-1 in the Union Avenue. Prior win over the strip ( which came in a 3rd off the shelf attempt ) tells us that it was no fluke, but as she's having five extra pounds of lead put into the saddle, we'll leave underneath. 

 

Race  7

1.Mo Heat

2.Fulco

3.Restored Order

#3 MO HEAT has a couple of nicely hidden morning moves on the ledger for today's initial afternoon sojourn to the frontside, and this one is a half to a 1 for 2 & a 1 for 3 turf winner. While both of those were sprints, the quickness of the gate breezes tells us not to be surprised if Cancel tries to pop this boy right outta the gate & nurse him on the front end. Price play in a fairly wide open event. #2 FULCO was steadied at the onset when beginning his working life nearly six weeks back, and Shug slaps the hood on in an effort to produce a more alert beginning. Colt is bred two ways from Sunday for the verde and would be no surprise. #1 RESTORED ORDER went for 10 1/2 times the stud fee at auction, and after partaking in the superfecta in both starts to date, is deservedly placed on the turf for the first time, as there's some decent pedigree for it.  OFF TURF: 1-4-3-11(MTO)-12(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Jimmy Jazz

2.Barleewon

3.Microsecond 

#7 JIMMY JAZZ was a'stumblin and a'bumblin at the beginning of his 8/15 try, but still managed to get fourth place money that day, and is reunited with Cancel, who guided him to two showings just prior to that. Slimmest of margins in a race that's tough to decipher. #4 BARLEEWON immolated some baccala in the most recent, and subsequently received the unkindest cut of all by Stidham. Jock as cold as a Mister Softee cone, but we'll include with the "pistachios off" angle. #2 MICROSECOND ( also in yesterday's entries ) hung up an adjusted 81.4 in the initial try over the gramma, and Pletcher as this Pletcher charge has never missed the baccala, who are we to rock that proverbial boat?  OFF TURF: 8-11-6-12-1A

 

Race  9 

1.Liveyourbeastlife

2.Jesus' Team

3.Dr Post

Nothing says "2020" like the Jim Dandy coming after the Travers & falling on Derby Day.  #2 LIVEYIOURBEASTLIFE posted a mediocre BSF when finding the line first in his lone 1X attempt, but this son of Super Saver out of a Distorted Humor mare is bred to do bigger and better things going two turns, and this fella just gives the impression of figuring things out as he goes along. Only one person messed with the Jesus at Monmouth Park three weeks ago, as #4 JESUS' TEAM was second in the listed Pegasus stakes. Colt who could've been all yours for 25K a few starts back has been an entirely different animal since that day, and we like when a conditioner isn't scared to make an equipment change after a solid performance, as blinks are added today. #6 DR POST was a bit of a disappointment in the Haskell, but will still take some pounding at the virtual windows due to the placing behind TTL in the Belmont. 

 

Race  10

1.Hello Beautiful

2.Up in Smoke

3.Sound Machine

#6 HELLO BEAUTIFUL was in the back of the pack when shipped out to the Pea Patch last month, but gal has rebounded off all three losses with a win ( on the dirt ), and we always like to see that kind of mettle in our selections. #2 UP IN SMOKE has yet to finish out of the money in 1X heats ( including a distant showing behind Gamine ), and rates a BIG shot with some quick fractions in front of her. #3 SOUND MACHINE has been a part of the exacta in four of five, but as the lone blemish was off a hiatus, we'll keep beneath. 

 

Race  11

1.Prioritize

2.Spinoff

3.Global Campaign

Better late than never with the #6 PRIORITIZE, no? Five year old was ridden by a bug back in December, and could've been all yours for 35 large that day. Well, he collected the lions share then -- and another 71G since -- which includes four consecutive career best outings on the sand. That being said, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards? Remember, Cigar won just one of eleven on the sod before reeling off a gaggle of wins when getting back on the sand, and while we're not drawing comparisons by any stretch of the imagination, he does seem to have found his niche. Recognize the fact that he always gets overlooked parimutually, as evident by the win payoffs of $38, $28, $30 & $7. Hmmmm......  #5 SPINOFF is two for two going long at SAR, and it may behoove Pletcher to keep this one in routes from here on out. #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN was dead game when scoring down in New Jersey and is reunited with his favorite jock here. 

 

Race  12 

1.Our Country

2.Kid Chocolate

3.Life on Top

#1 OUR COUNTRY has beaten just two home in the last triad, but owns a modicum of back class and is now available for purchase for the first time. Could be dangerous if able to sneak away early on. #3 KID CHOCOLATE has been a part of the triple in three straight ( with improving #'s ), but we'll keep in the underside of the exotics because if the trainer's 1-27 record on the stand. #8 LIFE ON TOP is another who has never had the "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump until today, and in two more "firsts", gets Junior & eye cups.  OFF TURF: 4-12-1-13(AE)-14(MTO)


Saratoga         ( Current ):     67-372     ( $520.00 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     134-372 ( 36.0% )( As of Saturday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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