SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 9/6
  
  

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Just about a breakeven day for us here yesterday, to go along with a $67 Ice Cold Double, and cold exactas of $50 & $90.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 9/6

 

Race  1

1.Malibu Curl

2.Tabor Hall 

3.Thislady s the Law

#5 MALIBU CURL was in the back half of the field when beginning her working life right here at the onset of August, but Albertrani isn't particularly well known for having them ready to go at first asking, and this January foal owns a 386 Tomlinson for the distance, which tells us she deserves another chance. Note that two returnees from that heat finished first and second in their followup engagements, with an average Beyer improvement of 9.5 points. #8 TABOR HALL has a couple'a decent morning moves for today's initial afternoon trip to the frontside, and draws well while being decently bred for this trip. #2 THISLADYIS THE LAW ( by 'Constitution' --- does the name sound familiar? ) has been conducting her A.M. affairs in a professional manner for today's bow, and could be dangerous with a clean break. 

 

Race  2

1.Wild William

2.Tenure

3.Cardiac Kitten

#6 WILD WILLIAM went coast to coast like jam & toast vs. slightly weaker 2 1/2 weeks back ( earning a lifetime best numero in the process ), and did such despite carving sizzling splits ( including a 43 & 4 half ). Repeat well within reach. #7 TENURE has been a part of the superfecta in all her starts, sans the pre-layoff jammie, and we like that this one has the ability to rate or send a bit. #10 CARDIAC KITTEN has been working well for the return. 5-7-8-2-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Majestic West 

2.Blood Moon

3.Cold Hard Cash

#5 MAJESTIC WEST has been beset by two layoff lines over his last triad, but that hasn't kept him from hitting the board on three occasions during that time, and gets a rider upgrade to Rosario this afternoon; slight edge. #3 BLOOD MOON takes the obligatory hike in class after being purchased last week, and chronic nibbler ( 11:1-4-2 lifetime ) closed out the tri in this race twice @ the stand. Logical undahs candidate. #4 COLD HARD CASH put forth an extremely gamely placing against state breds last time out ( her first try going two turns ), and can land a share. 

 

Race  4 

1.Price Talk 

2.Dreams of Tomorrow

3.Winters Back

#1 PRICE TALK got our meet off to an inauspicious beginning when getting ( justifiably ) disqualified in the second race on opening day. The speed figure earned ( however tainted it may be ) was honest enough ( so is the pedigree for that matter ), and notice that this one is now protected against being purchased. #2 DREAMS OF TOMORROW has been a part of the triple in all three starts to date, and although they've come on the sand, the turf pedigree is just about the same, so we're looking for another sharp effort. #9 WINTERS BACK ( bred up the yin yang for this trip ) lures the meet's leading rider and would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 1A-9-2-5-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Mo Dean

2.Leia Marie

3.Lutescoot N Boogie

( Second half of the split division w/ the opener. ) #5 MO DEAN was fanned extremely wide in the local debut a bit over a month ago, but rallied strongly to secure 2nd place $ that day, an being an Uncle Mo out of a Malibu Moon mare, one would think there'd be plenty of upside here. #9 LEIA MARIE didn't show a whole heck of a lot when starting things out on the verde a month back, but this one is likely better suited for the brown stuff, and draws "betterer" while having blinkers added. #8 LUTESCOOTE N BOOGIE encountered a touch of trouble when starting things out right here on Bijou's Birthday, but gamely held on for third, and gets Rosario this afternoon. 

 

Race  6 

1.A Little Faith

2.Bean Counter

3.Keota

#1 A LITTLE FAITH ( "There you go with them negative waves, Moriarity. Have a little faith, baby...have a little faith. ) has finished OTB just once in a half dozen career calls to the post, and despite going from NY Breds to open company, the recent figaro says that she belongs. #3 BEAN COUNTER is another extremely consistent sort who sheds four ponds off a tally ( something we always dig ); immensely logical. #8 KEOTA bested tougher on this course on August 6th, and digs this trip as well.  OFF TURF: 1-10-5(MTO)-6-8

 

Race  7

1.Sainte Mere Eglise

2.Dancing Kiki

3.Madison Parc

#7 SAINTE MERE EGLISE was awful in the August 13th try, but this one has a couple of decent adjusted Beyers posted prior to that, and rates a puncher's chance if able to get back to either of those. #9 DANCING KIKI is slowly beginning to give the impression of becoming that kind of maiden, as the 11:M-3-3-3 record belies. That being said, we'd be remiss in excluding. #8 MADISON PARC immolated some baccala when merely splitting the field at 2-1, but fared well ( from a speed figure standpoint at least ) in open company before that, and is reunited with blinkers.  OFF TURF: 8-5-9-1-2

 

Race  8 

1.Lusitano

2.Creative Style

3.American Power

#8 LUSITANO was a smart winner a few pegs just below this back on the 15th of August, and ended up in Jimmy Ferraro's barn afterwards. Gelding has hung up career best D & T numbers in his last duet, and the pre-layoff pilot returns. #9 CREATIVE STYLE has been a part of the superfecta in ten straight, and has done some nice work over this oval. Sensible. #4 AMERICAN POWER was kept in jail for a week after the necessary time frame to come back at the level claimed, and although the last was a real stinker, chestnut chap has done well here & deserves a chance to rebound.

 

Race  9 

1.Irish Constitution 

2.Vequist 

3.Lady Lilly

#1 IRISH CONSTITUTION was as game as all getout to grab the sheepskin at first asking, and the place/show horses from that heat got their photographs taken in their followup engagements, -- one of them was a 150K stakes. NYB now tangling with open critters, but the Beyer tells us that she belongs. #2 VEQUIST was a daylight clear runner up when bested by a sliver at Philadelphia Park 39 days back, and despite still being a maiden, is logical vs. these. #3 LADY LILLY was all out to win right outta the box on this strip a month ago, and the 3rd/4th place finishers from that day were first and second next out, improving in the #'s dept. by an average of 9.5 points. We're not digging the slowish works since the win, so we'll keep beneath. 

 

Race  10

1.Bye Bye J

2.Pacific Gale

3.Unholy Alliance 

#5 BYE BYE J has that kind of quintessentially poyfect "declining" record we love to see ( 11:6-2-1 ) as it shows she has a sense where the line is. Four year old also excels at this distance ( 5 fer 8 ), and is but a neck shy of an unblemished three for three mark in dirt starts off an absence. Yeah -- we have no qualms with biting at a price. #6 PACIFIC GALE is a steady if unspectacular sort who is a bit better on a wet track than a fast one, and as we always go back three races to find some value, the June 5th prorated effort is enough to pique our interest a bit. #4 UNHOLY ALLIANCE drops seven pounds off a win in her only try in Togatown, and we'll chunk in. 

 

Race  11

1.Fixed Point 

2.Pagliacci

3.Readyforprimetime

#2 FIXED POINT has bested just one in his last duet, but Serpe charge ( on the whole ) is two of four off a break in the action, with one of those scores coming on the Mellon ( beneath today's pilot ). Bombs away. #6 PAGLIACCI wasn't in any laughing mood when being squeezed at the onset of the Wilmington deal, but still ended up losing by less than a length despite being fanned six wide. Gelding is 3:2-0-1 in third off the shelf outings, and is showing a blistering breeze in his first try for Klesaris. #7 READYFORPRIMETIME shoots for the hat trick off of successive lifetime best figs, and it's well within reach for this "horse for the course".  OFF TURF: 3-5-9-7-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  12 

1.Stormy Derby Day

2.Positive Skew

3.Tatterazzi

#6 STORMY DERBY DAY has shown little over the last two forays, but sometimes these "2nd time blinkers" types can rebound off of poor efforts -- and at big prices. Timid selection. #10 POSITIVE SKEW merely split the field last out, but pick up Irad and could perk up with the barn switch. #3 TATTERAZZI as average as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF : 7-1-8-6-3


Saratoga         ( Current ):     69-384     ( $541.50 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     138-384 ( 35.9% )( As of Sunday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       6-31       ( $55.40 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     12-31   ( 37.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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