SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 9/4 - Churchill Downs - La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks



Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Saratoga, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 9/4 - La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks


   Race 11       La Troienne



3.Monomoy Girl

After being eased out in Arcadia, #1 HOROLOGIST rebounded in a big way to win the G3 Molly Pitcher up at the Shore 47 days ago, and the adjusted speed figure from that afternoon was by far her best to date. Gal is but a neck shy of a perfect three for three when loading first, and we like the recent move at Oklahoma, as she doesn't traditionally do that well in the A.M.'s. Whatever Mott did in his first pairing with this gal seemed to work, and well traveled 4YO makes her 18th start at her 9th different venue. #2 VEXATIOUS was all out to pick up the lion's share in the Personal Ensign ( her second career best # in as many calls to the post ), and is tough to dismiss. Future Hall of Famer #8 MONOMOY GIRL is but a noggin' & a DQ shy of an unblemished 13 for 13, so she's obviously a deserving favorite in this spot, and while we can't find any fault with her, why would we take 4/5 on an animal with a comparable last race figure to our top two selections @ 4-1 ?


Race 12 Kentucky      Oaks

1.Swiss Skydiver



#1 SWISS SKYDIVER turned in a performance in the Alabama that was strikingly similar to that of her male 3YO counterpart in the Travers. So visually impressive under confident handling, the end result was truly never in doubt. Only loss in her last quintet was a solid placing vs. Art Collector, and when the draw came out for this event, we were very happy to see her get the rail. Why? Glad you asked ! Because we want to see Tyler take it to #5 GAMINE early on. Had the posts been reversed, the temptation would've been to track Lidocaine Bob's filly, and how often have you seen his runners go coast to coast when not being pressed? Exactly. What we would LOVE to see is Gaffalione send from the start and take Gamine out of HER element. Make HER work for it. She's never been headed in 16 points of call, so what happens if she has to go eyeball to eyeball with someone? Don't think S.S. has what it takes to boogie in the early stages? Well, a 22.45 in the Fantasy & a 22.92 in the S.A. Oaks should quell any trepidation in that regards. Hoping for a whiz banger of a race with the chalk being shrugged off in mid stretch, with #4 SPEECH splitting the two for the exacta.

Saratoga         ( Current ):     66-360     ( $514.90 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     130-360 ( 36.1% )( As of Friday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout