SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 9/5 - Kentucky Derby, Derby City Distaff, Turf Classic


Just a reminder that for today's Saratoga full card selections & analysis, merely go back one page.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 9/5 - Kentucky Derby, Derby City Distaff, Turf Classic


Race 12  Derby City Distaff 

1.Mia Mischief 

2.Bell's the One

3.Ce ce

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 MIA MISCHIEF has hit the board in six straight, 10 of 12, owns a lovely "declining" record over this oval, ( 9:5-2-1 ), and tho she's started but one time from the inside -- that resulted in a win. Toss in an itty bitty DRF Formulator stat which has The As Man at two for three with graded dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 51-61 days ago  ( $5 & $3 ). No worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #4 BELL'S THE ONE has a 4:2-1-0 when returning off a "true" layoff, and it's hard to knock that 6-13 lifetime mark. #10 CE CE won the Apple Blossom by a head in her lone third off the L/O engagement, and is two fer three when last to load. Stalker may sit a nice trip today.  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 2 & 9 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTFULLY.


 Race 13       Turf Classic

1.Bowies Hero 

2.True Valour ( Ire ) 

3.Spectacular Gem

It's difficult to argue with the complete body of work for the #2 BOWIES HERO ( especially as he's won a third of his 24 career outings ), and when you factor in the two for three lifetime mark in 3rd off the shelf attempts, then that makes him all the more appealing. Six year old "horse" ( you hang on to them dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) sheds 64 ounces and would love a bit of pace to cut into. #7 TRUE VALOUR (IRE) has a two for five mark off the shelf, and tho winless over his last sextet ( giggity ), may perk up with a change in scenery & a reduction in the weight department. #10 SPECTACULAR GEM is two for two in Louisville, found the line first in his sole turf try off a respite, and 14% jockey & 15% rider are three of four with turf stayers on this circuit ( $6, $23 & $33 ). Grab him by the tail to get the glory.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-4-7


Race 14 Kentucky Derby

1.Tiz the Law

2.Honor A.P.


Not going out on a limb by selecting #17 TIZ THE LAW in this spot, as we've been on him for all of his wins ( & didn't cover the race where there was a rolling road block ). What we are finally willing to do is say that he may end up being the greatest horse we've ever seen. Not right now, mind you, as there's still some meat left on that bone, but with a few more scores, he is it for us. Obviously most of you know our relationship with the fine folks at Sackatoga, but you also know that we don't  make our selections based on emotion ( okay, maybe 'My Roxy Girl' at times ). My loyalty lies with you -- the readers. That being said, the Travers was as visually impressive a race that we've ever seen. And are you ready for this ? The horse STILL has not gotten to the bottom of his belly, OR completely figured things out yet -- but he's getting there on the latter. Let's call the 17 slot his "spot" to the field, as we believe only a troubled trip gets the best of him. But remember, average horses find bad luck -- great horses make their own luck. Hey, Bruce Phillips -- get this one home for Roger, will ya?    #16 HONOR A.P. has essentially improved with each passing start ( having never missed an exacta, and Mike Smith was quoted as saying he felt a "tingle" in his legs after that 1:27 & 1/5th breeze last week. Lawdy, can't even imagine what would be tingling had the horse went 1:25 & 4.  #3 ENFORCEABLE has been beset by an average post position of 10 over his last four starts, and may save all the ground with today's much improved draw. Lone "true" second off the shelf engagement resulted in a placing, and jock strikes us as one who will go all out for the minor spoils. 

Saratoga         ( Current ):     67-372     ( $520.00 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     134-372 ( 36.0% )( As of Saturday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout