SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 9/20


Took the duck yesterday as we finish up a truncated opening week today. 

Just a reminder, that for today's selections & analysis for the Grade One races from Woodbine, merely go back a page.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #10 Bastet

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 9/20


Race  1

1.Uptown Flirt



#5 UPTOWN FLIRT has posted identical 65's while crashing the party in her first two calls to the post, and appears to lay over the entire field but one -- our secondary selection, #6 CADENCIA. Said runner has asterisks next to her Tomlinsons for the surface & distance ( which means they're still unproven as of this time ), but that being said, this one went for 11.5X the stud fee at auction, and has been working extremely well for the bow. Jockey/Trainer combo have fared well here over the last couple'a years. #8 MOMENTITA ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) was a well clear runner up first time out, and is a sensible inclusion. 


Race  2

1.Big Thicket

2.Inside Info


#2 BIG THICKET flopped in the most recent, but that can be forgiven, as historically speaking, this one has never cared for the wet stuff. Grey fella has done well at this trip, and 19% Rudy Rod is 5-15 with locally based allowance dirt stock who missed the money 14-50 days ago & are 19-1 or less ( positive ROI ). #1 INSIDE INFO is on a 4:2-1-0-1 dirt streak of late and owns a two for two mark right here at Big Sandy. Just may sit a perfect trip. #5 STANHOPE was a gamely runner up right outta the box in the lone start on the sand, and has the wonder drug administered for the first time.  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3


2.Kentucky Knight

3.Realm of Law

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 EXPLAIN showed a bit of early hoof when going over the gramma for the first time two starts back, dashes over the stuff this afternoon, while picking up Manny Man -- who had a nice opening day here on Friday with a three bagger. Oh, from a small sampling, this outfit is two for five when going brown to green with their maiden special weight sprinters who were 1-2-3 last out ( 10-1 or less ). #5 KENTUCKY KNIGHT was a bit overmatched in the Skidmore on 8/21, but the figure from that day came back just fine, and he should appreciate the class relief. #9 REALM OF LAW is a well bred FTS'er who's been conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner for today's bow.  OFF TURF: 6-3-7-5-8(MTO)


Race  4 

1.Malibu Pro

2.Super Dude

3.American Lincoln

#1 MALIBU PRO is exactly that, as this 7YO ha partaken in the superfecta over his last 14 trips to the track, and gelding has done some nice work at this distance as well ( 15:4-2-6 ). 5:2-0-2-1 mark when first to load adds to the allure, as does the clan's 4:3-0-1 ledger with second off the claim dirt animals who where ITM less than two fortnights ago ( 10-1 or undah ) w/mutuels of $5, $10 & $18. #3 SUPER DUDE takes the mandatory hike in class this afternoon after being purchased 29 days ago ( two days short of being out of jail ), and has hit the board both times he's gone from two turns to one over a glib surface. #5 AMERICAN LINCOLN outran his odds when finishing third at this level up @ the Spa, and you may still get some decent value with this one.


Race  5

1.Kept Waiting ( AE )

2.Lucky Latkes

3.Two Cent Tootsie

#15 KEPT WAITING (AE) needs a lot of luck to play with her friends today, but should that come to fruition, would be toting along a troika of solid figaros and two exacta finishes. Majah playah. After putting forth a solid effort in the career starter, #1 LUCKY LATKES encountered some trouble in her next duet, but still fought the good fight nonetheless. Just may work out a cozy trip beneath Franco. #5 TWO CENT TOOTSIE is beginning to look like a professional maiden, but takes the big plunge in this spot while having eye cups affixed.  OFF TURF: 15(AE)-1-5-9-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Wish for Magic


3.A Bit o'Irish Sass

#12 WISH FOR MAGIC has two decent & nicely hidden workouts on the docket for today's first trip to the races, and from a limited survey, Bruce Brown has won with 2 of 7 firsters fitting all these exact parameters ( any jock ) beneath the 46-1 watermark ( $23 & $26 ). This is the first foal out of a lightly raced dam, but daddy was a game sort, and there are some nice bloodlines in the 2nd generation. Hoping Luzzi is pumping right outta the gate for the "killer crossover". #1 BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY is sired by Effinex ( who was also owned by someone very creative with the naming of his equines ), and has a bullet in the holster for today's debut. #9 A BIT O'IRISH SASS is a $5,000 bred animal who went for 110 large four months ago, but as Schosberg is not known for having them cranked up right away, we'll keep beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #13 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7

1.Venus Oyzo

2.Zaccapa  ( Fr )

3.All American Dream

#7 VENUS OYZO hung up an adjusted Beyer speed figure of 72.7 in the lone turf start when the jockey stayed aboard, and if you can get past the low percentage connex of Persaud/Cardenas, then you may be getting some decent value here. #9 ZACCAPA (FR) was as flat as a pancake when last seen at the end of July, but is an obvious factor if able to get back to the penultimate effort. #4 ALL AMERICAN DREAM is extremely well bred for this sorta deal and would be no surprise. For the record, trainer has scored with half of his ten first time starters at this level in turf sprints ( $7, $5, $12 * $3 x 2 )  OFF TURF: 8-11(MTO)-2-7-10   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 BASTET fills the bill, as the barn is 0-13 in all pertinent categories.


Race  8 


2.Jake Rocks

3.Chilly in Charge

#6 DURESS has a decent overall body of work and makes his third start off the L/O here; most timid of selections in a race that's a bit difficult to decipher. #1 JAKE ROCKS fell short by only a neck in a blanket finish up north about a month ago, and slides in four slots while dropping a pound off of that result. As this fella has done just as well on the green as the brown, we're expecting another decent finish at double digit odds. #5 CHILLY IN CHARGE hasn't been seen since Christmas Eve Eve, but has been working lights out for today's comebacker, and this one also has a fair amount of back class.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-2-1-6-7


Race  9 


2.Tiple ( Ire )

3.Sister Sophia 

#3 KREESIE has done her best work at this locale, is reunited with the pilot from her last tally, and honk if you dig Donk when cutting back his optional turf stock off absences of 31 days or lower, as he's 5:3-0-2 in that regards ( $12, $13 & $8 ). #5 TIPLE (IRE) shoots for the hat trick and it's well within reach, as Serpe ( from an itty bitty sample ) is two of four with runners of this ilk in the 7-67 day bracket @ 19-1 or beneath ( $13 & $12 ). #1 SISTER SOPHIA ( uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection ) hasn't seen the scene in nearly three Halloweens, but has completed the tri in her last three starts off the pine and Johnny V. sees fit to ride.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-6-10


Race  10

1.She's a Black Belt

2.La Negrita

3.Happy Sophia

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play here, so let's get right to 'em in a no frills manner.  #8 SHE'S A BLACK BELT: Nevin has a 4 for 10 boxscore with Elmont based 2nd off the shelf mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala most recently $9, $8, $4 & $7. #9 LA NEGRITA has a bout of seconditis ( 7:0-5-1 on a fast track ), but RR is on track with his third off the respite mid level dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta last out & are underneath 25-1 ( $7, $13 & $31 ). #2 HAPPY SOPHIA: Trainer has a Handal on his BEL dirt runners at this level that were I.T.M less than 44 days ago, as he's 16:5-2-3-2 with 'em, & has a $2.13 return on investment as well.  


Belmont          ( Current ):     4-20        ( $31.30 )  Beatable    Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %         5-20    ( 25% )

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       6-31       ( $55.40 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     12-31   ( 37.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout