SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 9/25



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #9 Mo Me Mo My

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 9/25


Race  1

1.Freedom Force

2.Tri Saint Lorenzo

3.Warfront Fighter

#3 FREEDOM FORCE goes turf to dirt this afternoon, and the only time that was attempted, a career best numero was the end result. $600,000 American Pharoah colt can be all yours for 1/30th of that amount today, and Jose sees fit to return. #2 TRI SAINT LORENZO is another one switching back to his preferred surface today while being halved in price with the bug assigned. #8 WARFRONT FIGHTER switches from one Gary to another this afternoon ( they combined for a monstrous double on Sunday ) and picks up what is expected to be the meet's leading apprentice. 


Race  2

1.Dipping In


3.Bella Rose

#2 DIPPING IN was extremely gamely in besting maiden platers up north about a month ago, and the # earned from that day was an all time high for this daughter of Lea. As Rosario goes with the bigger outfit here, Johnny V. gets the nod, and he's a more than suitable replacement. Hoping the light bulb stays on with this one, and maybe even gets a bit brighter. #7 LEEWAY closed out the exacta in this race on Labor Day weekend in the Adirondacks, and as this one has shown improvement in each of his two turn affairs ( 56-60-68-70 ) who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #6 BELLA ROSE found the line first ( to the tune of 45 smackers ) the only time she was available for purchase, and is second off the shelf in this spot.  OFF TURF: 5-7-3-9(MTO)-1


Race  3

1.Deep Sea

2.Vicar's Legend

3.Business Cycle

#7 DEEP SEA showed little when taking the obligatory hike in class after the August 9th claim, and the result left a lot to be desired, so eight year old is now dropped 25% below the purchase price by Noda. Slim margin in a race that's difficult to embrace. #1 VICAR'S LEGEND ( like the above ) has never seen these depths, and could pose a threat with a cleaner onset. #5 BUSINESS CYCLE gets a major upgrade in the trainer dept. & scored by half'a dozen the last time he was in for a dime. Chestnut chap is reunited w/ Manny Man, and that's of some high relevance, as the two have an 8:3-3-0 mark in tandem ( compared to this runner being 2-11 otherwise ). 


Race  4 


2.Majestic Dunhill

3.Build to Suit

We have three tidy but tight sets of DRF Formulator stats in play for today's 4th, so without further "To do", let's get right to 'em.  #5 SOLDADO ( who won his lone try off the bench ) is conditioned by a bossman who's boss with his locally based optional dirt stock in the 56-220 day bracket ( 3 for 4 w/a $2.72 return on investment ). #4 MAJESTIC DUNHILL ( scratched from a Philadelphia Park event for this ) will be led over by Weaver who's also a dreamy three fer four with runners fitting this criteria who were off the board less than 51 days back & are 21-1 or lower ( $9, $22 & $15 ). #3 BUILD TO SUIT ( who has done fine work at this trip & over this strip ) is backed by a 4-9 statistic which has Brown at just that with the same categories listed for our top selection ( substituting the "days off" to 51-159 ). 


Race  5


2.Summer Tune

3.Gimmee Some Mo

#4 GUNMAN returned off an elongated absence to improve by about 20% in the speed figure area, when losing by just two lengths to a next out winner, and is eligible to move forward with that under his girthstrap. Mild selection. #8 SUMMER TUNE dead heated for the place/show spot down at the Jersey Shore on 8/22, and has a solid overall body of work which puts this one in the mix. #1 GIMMEE SOME MO hasn't faced the starter in half the length of a calendar, but posted an adjusted 82,9 in his sole try on the sod, and it's always reassuring when the pre-layoff pilot returns, as it tells us that nothing untoward occurred when last seen.  OFF TURF: 3-2-1-9-4


Race  6 

1.Storm Shooter


3.Production Credit

#1 STORM SHOOTER begins his career today, and as this one went for 4 1/2 times the stud fee at auction, as well as owning a 404 Tomlinson figure for the dx., we'd say this one is well meant. Recognize that the dam was 3-10 in dirt dashes ( 127G earned ), and this one is a half to two multiple winning dirt sprinters ( who both banked in the six figures ), and daddy was a goodie who won all three of his 1X affairs and made just south of half'a mil. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the #2 DOUBLEPOUR here, as there's a sole decent morning move ( 48 & 3 from the gate ) amidst a bevy of rather ordinary workouts. #4 PRODUCTION CREDIT broke on top first time out before giving up the ghost after a half; horse will get better with time under the tutelage of Ferraro. 


Race  7

1.Ava K's Girl

2.Corey Scores

3.Strike Magic

#7 AVA K'S GIRL has the "For Sale" sticker attached to her butt for the 1st time, and it would behoove you to draw a line through the recent heat, as she got smacked around a bit at the onset. That being said, this one got her photograph taken in the other turf attempt ( way back when ), and we're surprised it's taken so long to get her back to this trip. #1 COREY SCORES outran her odds when closing out the exacta in her only "3rd off the hiatus" foray, and finished third the only time she was first to load. Filly has hit the board in four of five going short. #8 STRIKE MAGIC found the line first the last time he was up for sale, and Manny sticks around for today's dropdown.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 MO ME MO MY fills the bill, as O'Neill is 0-9 in all relevant categories.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-7-14(AE)-2-6


Race  8 

1.Six Percent

2.Unrelenting Force

3.Blackjack Davey

#4 SIX PERCENT was a well beaten but nicely clear runner up when finishing directly in front of a next out winner in his lone 2X to 1X spin, and MM is a sweet 4 for 7 when being handed a dirt dasher who last raced 16-50 days back ( $11, $9 & $4 x 2 ). #7 UNRELENTING FORCE spit the bit in his first try vs, winners, but that was going two turns, and this is another runner who fared well on the cutback. Eligible to rebound. #1 BLACKJACK DAVEY has partaken in the exacta in his last troika and makes all kinds of sense. 


Race  9 


2.Ghoul ( Brz )


#5 READYFORPRIMETIME has the ability to send or rate, found the line first in his only start when in a 3rd off the L/O scenario, and is eligible for purchase for the first time in this spot. Deserving chalk. #9 GHOUL (BRZ) has three times as many wins as placings & showings, and we like seeing a stat like that, as it shows his knack for finding the line. Late runner would obviously be aided by any sort of speed duel, and should be rolling late. #7 SAYYAAF closes out the triple.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-5-3-1(MTO)-2(MTO)


Race  10

1.Dream Chasing

2.Bonus Baby

3.High School Crush

#12 DREAM CHASING has a fantastic trainer stat behind her, as C-Squared owns an 11:7-0-2 ledger with maiden claiming turfers going short who were 1-2-3 20-53 days back ( 9-1 or beneath ). Should sit the perfect trip. #1 BONUS BABY overcame a bunch of traffic to secure second place money in a similar spot upstate, but may have outran her pedigree that day; including, but with a touch of trepidation. #7 HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH has been a part of the superfecta in six of seven and gets a slight upgraded in the jockey area.  OFF TURF: 9-4-2-7-10 

Belmont          ( Current ):     5-40        ( $42.30 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-2  ( 0% )      Favorites Win %      10-40    ( 25.0% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       6-34       ( $55.40 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     14-34   ( 41.2% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout