SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 9/19 - Woodbine - Woodbine Mile
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's complete Belmont coverage, merely go back one page.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 9/19 - Woodbine - Woodbine Mile

 

 Race 9

1.Admiralty Pier

2.Shirl's Speight

3.Value Proposition ( GB )

#6 ADMIRALTY PIER ( scratched tomorrow for this ) nearly went all the way in the King Edward back in mid August, but was caught late while still finishing decently clear of teh third place horse. I'm not quite sure what it will take for this one to reverse the result from that day, but we'll take a swing that he may be able to set slightly more favorable fractions at 4X the morning line offering. There's an old adage which says to always incorporate an undefeated horse at more than 3-1, and that's what we're doing with the #3 SHIRL'S SPEIGHT here, as Attfield charge has won both his calls to the post, and under two entirely different sets of circumstances. Three year old is facing more seasoned foes, but could crash the party if able to continue his progression. #7 VALUE PROPOSITION (GB) has won off the shelf an has been working smartly at Oklahoma, where the recent spate of cooler weather should have him acclimatized nicely for this northern sojourn.  OFF TURF: 5-2-3-1-7 

 

Belmont          ( Current ):     4-10        ( $31.30 )  Beatable    Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %         2-10    ( 20% )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       6-31       ( $55.40 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     12-31   ( 37.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017