SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 9/20 - Woodbine - Grade 1's Summer & Natalma
  
  

KevinCoxItem


Just a reminder that for today's complete Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Graded Stakes - 9/20 - Woodbine - Grade 1's Summer & Natalma

 

 Race 7

1.Download

2.Heat of the Night

3.Dolder Grand

#1 DOWNLOAD is extremely light from a speed figure standpoint, but this one showed precipitous improvement when going over the blades for the first time, and sometimes these youngsters can improve by leaps and bonds. This is the first foal out of a mediocre turf dam, but daddy excelled here, and was 6:2-1-1-2 going one turn on firm local footing. Recognize the 13% trainer & 12% jockey click at a 28% rate when in tandem with those at 35-1 or less ( 28:8-3-1-3 ) off breaks of 1-50 days. There's a whopping $4.67 ROI for that sampling, and we'll swing away. #6 HEAT OF THE NIGHT got the job done at first asking way down in Hallandale Beach, and this January foal is bred to do even much better on the gramma. #7 DOLDER GRAND is a maiden facing winners, but that doesn't mean as much with these baby stakes races as one might think. Husbands sees fit to ride.  OFF TURF: 5-6-3-2-4

 

      Race 9

1.Big Big Plans

2.Stunning Princess

3.Seasons

#7 BIG BIG PLANS was visually impressive when crushing maiden platers when going over the local carpet fibers on August 20th, and as this one is slightly better bred for the turf, we wouldn't be surprised to see some improvement ( from a Beyer perspective ) this afternoon. Now will it be enough to best those with haughtier running lines? We're not quite sure. But several members of the family tree have sensational resumes that are too long to list ( including a bit on the turf ), and of course, we love the draw. #1 STUNNING PRINCESS has been extremely sharp in both starts to date, and gets the miracle drug for the first time. Would be no surprise. #2 SEASONS was bet down to odds on at first asking in Saratoga ( a bit bizarre for a 4% trainer ), but apparently the word was good that day, as she got up in time vs. mdspwt foes. May sit a snug trip.  

 
Belmont          ( Current ):     4-20        ( $31.30 )  Beatable    Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %         5-20    ( 25% )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       6-31       ( $55.40 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     12-31   ( 37.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017