SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 9/27
  
  

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Profitable day for us here yesterday with two successful Beatable Favorites as well, and we broke even in our three Grade One selections. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 9/27

 

Race  1

1.Pure Bode

2.Twice a Lady

3.Gaelic Gold

#3 PURE BODE improved about 21% from an adjusted speed figure standpoint when stretching out in the secondary outing, and late foal will likely get better with time. Slight edge in a wide open opener. #1 TWICE A LADY has shown zippo in the mornings for today's career starter, but the breeding for this trip is top notch, and not only was mommy 4 of 20 in turf routes ( having earned 368 large ), but this one is a half to several winners at this trip as well. #6 GAELIC GOLD has hung up back to back solid efforts simce coming northward, and just like at Saratoga, Jockey/Trainer off to a hot start at this stand.  OFF TURF: 6-3-1-2-8(MTO)

 

Race  2

1.Alley Oop Johnny

2.Shore Magic

3.Rakeez

Couple'a DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em. #3 ALLEY OOP JOHNNY merely bested half the field against tougher last time out, but is back at a more palatable level this afternoon, and Bruce Brown is no clown with his locally based turf stayers of this ilk who missed the board < 40 days back & are 18-1 or less. He's 5:3-1-1 in that regards ( $31, $26 & $8 ), and that stat is substantially better than those who were in the money last out. #4 SHORE MAGIC is available for purchase for the first time, and 19% shotcaller is a snappy 6:4-0-2 with that type on the turf who missed the board 45-64 days back ( $7 x 2, $5 & $3 ). #8 RAKEEZ hasn't been seen in quite some time, but the figures earned to date were solid enough, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 6-8-7-2-4

 

Race  3

1.Beyond Discreet

2.Cotton Candy Cutie

3.Stay Fond

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #5 BEYOND DISCREET has shown little in the last duet, but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and is a sensational 7 of 16 at this dx., ( compared to being 2-18 otherwise ). Timid choice. #2 COTTON CANDY CUTIE gave an improved performance against slightly tougher back on the 3rd, and deserves to be left in the mix once again. #4 STAY FOND is halved in price after having a claim voided at the end of August, and is actually 20% below the purchase price from two back. Mare is another one who's excelled at this trip, but it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  4 

1.Autostrada

2.Lightfoot Miss

3.Laoban Furen 

#4 AUTOSTRADA is an exceptionally well bred firster for Brown with a hefty Tomlinson for the distance ( 388 ) and a few decent morning moves on the docket. Slimmest of margins in a heat with no real standouts. #2 LIGHTFOOT MISS came along late in the game to lose by just a half'a length in a blanket finish, and the bloodlines ( as well as the extra panel ) tell us that we can expect a move forward in this spot. #5 LAOBAN FUREN starts things out today & is a half to a one for four dirt dasher; in the FWIW dept., trainer also conditioned the sire. 

 

Race  5

1.Princess Fawzia

2.Come Storming

3.Jen's Battle

#8 PRINCESS FAWZIA has steadily improved with each & every start ( having never missed an exacta, which includes two sojourns right here ), and Rice has won with half of her six turf runners doing this sort of comeback who were 1-2-3 < 60 days back ( $11, $9 & $12 ), and there's a sub category of 2-2 at this level. #9 COME STORMING seems to be figuring things out as she goes along, as she's been a part of the superfecta in seven straight, and now has blinkers added by Bush; sensible inclusion. #11 JEN'S BATTLE cuts back today & is one for two on the Widener. Should sit a decent trip.  OFF TURF: 5-8-4-6-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Sengekontacket

2.Forty Zip

3.L'Indiscret

#6 SENGEKONTACKET has essentially gotten better w/each call to the post, and 26% bossman more than doubles that batting average with those going long on the lawn at this level off absences of 55-67 days. There's a positive return on investment for that study, and five returnees from that heat have come back to go 5:1-1-0-1 next time out ( from four different races ), with a negligible Beyer change amongst the top quartet. #3 FORTY ZIP has partaken in the super under three different sets of circumstances, and we like seeing that kind of versatility in lightly raced animals. Shug charge is 3rd off the bench here, and hung up an adj. 82.3 ( without Lasix ) in her lone try over firm ground. #2 L'INDISCRET was a lively & decently clear runner up on 8/9, and is another making her third try off a L/O line.  OFF TURF: 1-9-3-11-5

 

Race  7

1.Cost Average

2.Highly Motivated

3.Sono Grato

#9 COST AVERAGE has a pair of decently tucked away breezes for the start to his working life today ( both from the gate ), and although we don't like seeing the recent gate move -- as sometimes 3+ gate moves can signify a bit of tardiness from said apparatus -- this one went for 20X the breeding price at auction & draws perfectly. For all you place punters out there, we believe #6 HIGHLY MOTIVATED should be no worse than second in this spot, based on the solid debut in SAR, and we see no plausible reason for a regression in this spot -- especially with a bit of pace in front of him. #3 SONO GRATO has been working sensationally in the A.M.'s for today's bow, and aside from the trainer having no starts over the last five years, we're not quite sure why this one is 30-1. 

 

Race  8 

1.Constant Knight

2.Uncle George 

3.Freewheeler

#6 CONSTANT KNIGHT outran his odds when splitting the field at 61-1 last time out, in losing by less than three lengths, and the Beyer Speed figure earned was his best to date. Six year old "horse" ( You run when you see the vet come, buddy boy !" ) is one for two going short on the inner, and rates a puncher's chance at what will likely to be big odds once again. #11 UNCLE GEORGE got the job done in his lone try over firm ground ( against open company ), but as you're getting Rosario on a closer from an outside post in a sprint, we envision a scenario where this one falls a bit short. #10 FREEWHEELER has the ability to send or rate, and should be right there on the line.  OFF TURF: 10-6-7-2-8 

 

Race  9 

1.Critical Value

2.Thankful

3.Pop a Choc

#7 CRITICAL VALUE can be forgiven the comebacker, as she was away for quite some time, and perhaps two turns just isn't her bag. Three year old is a poyfect two fer two right here at Big Sandy, got her photo taken in her lone try when beginning from the outermost two slots, and should be able to survey the scene going down the backside. #4 THANKFUL apparently appreciated the brief respite, as she procured the sheepskin up in the Adirondacks 38 days back, and by no means disgraced herself when completing the exacta in her lone start in Elmont just before that, and as Looie is in California for a stakes on Saturday, Manny Man gets the assignment. #3 POP A CHOC has been a totally new equine when going green to brown, and will be hard to down. 

 

Race  10

1.Stormy Derby Day

2.More Mango

3.Lido Key

#6 STORMY DERBY DAY turned in a grisly effort on closing weekend at the Spaaaaahhh, but the eye cups are now removed, and Bush is a hot 4-10 with mid level turf routers who were OTB less than 46 days back & are 37-1 or underneath today ( $25, $7, $8 & $11 ). Wouldn't be surprised to see this one a bit closer to the action in the early stages. #9 MORE MANGO went coast to coast like butter and toast in his first start off the claim for Maker, as blinks apparently did the trick that day, and we can't fault those who see the potential for even further improvement. #10 LIDO KEY placed in this race up in Saratoga when last in action, and this uncoupled barnmate with our number two choice is logical once again.  OFF TURF: 4-9-5-10-12

 


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


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