SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/1
  
  

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Fresh week to get out of our little funk ! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/1

 

Race  1

1.Mohjestic

2.Forward Curve 

3.Accessible 

#7 MOHJESTIC returned off a year and a half absence to close out the super up north on closing day, and although this very expensive four year old burned some money that afternoon, he most definitely needed it, and there's a solid DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 60 months, Weaver is a dreamy 4 for 8 with maiden claiming turf stayers off of this kind of break at 10-1 in last ( OTB in said race ), with mutuels of $6 x 3 & $14. #10 FORWARD CURVE came along decently to pick up 12% of the purse when debuting a month and a half back, and is eligible to move up off that effort. #6 ACCESSIBLE has steadily improved over each & every turf start, so who quite knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Ridgling ( ouch ) takes the biggest drop in the game today & has hit the board in seven of eight outings.  OFF TURF: 10-1-7-3-11(MTO)

 

Race  2

1.Tied Up

2.Queen Kahen

3.Blunt Force

#3 TIED UP ( not the best name for a horse ) has won more than half of her 35 calls to the post, and that includes having equal success at this trip. Today's pilot has won both starts when astride this mare, and you can do a lot worse here. #1 QUEEN KAHEN has completed the exacta in both starts when breaking from the pine, and after finishing out of the money in both starts since being claimed by Chad Summers ( who is 1-29 in first & second starts after a purchase ), now finds herself at her lowest level to date. #4 BLUNT FORCE has won three of five & takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged by an underrated trainer back on 9/3. 

 

Race  3

1.Pier Forty

2.South Africa

3.Tackle

#1 PIER FORTY ( who has fallen well short of his quarter of a million dollar purchase price ) is confidently hiked up in class after the recent & decent showing in SAR on the 2nd of September, and does the ol' "outside to inside" move today. Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeekest of selections. #2 SOUTH AFRICA posted a career best numero in his third off the layoff attempt, and the show horse from that day got the job done next time out, improving in the BSF dept. by six points. #5 TACKLE immolated the baccala when finishing a well beaten 3rd at 3/5 in the Adirondacks, but given the figures earned in both calls to the post, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 5-6-8-2-3

 

Race  4 

1.Manifest Destiny

2.Graded On a Curve

3.Rapt

#6 MANIFEST DESTINY was in the rear with the gear with no palpable excuse last time out ( Perhaps he needs a reunion with the hard working Tzeonn Chang? ), but runner has a decent enough turf record, and finished 3rd in his sole 1X to 2X try at 30-1. Price play. #8 GRADED ON A CURVE closed with a flourish to miss by just a half'a length in his only "third off the respite" try ( despite going a whopping seven wide ) & won his only start on the Widener. #3 RAPT can plod along for a share.  OFF TURF: 2-8-6-3-1(MTO)

 

Race  5

1.Releasethethunder

2.Wegotoldyougotsold

3.Vineyard Sound

#2 RELEASETHETHUNDER has only beaten home one in his two starts since being purchased back in July ( Rut roh ! ), and although the connections stand to lose a few fazools with a win & a claim in this spot, we're assuaged by the fact that this 18% shotcaller is three for six with locally based mid level dirt horsies who finished out of the $ seven weeks ago or less ( ridden by Franco ). The winners in that survey came back $19, $11 & $15, and we'll give this one another shot. #7 WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD put forth a sharp showing in his first start off of a six month sabbatical, and gelding ( who's worked well since ) has also posted a solid placing in his only second off the layoff spin ( on the sand ). Nice trainer start in play as well, as Rudy Rod ( who's on 0-30 & 1-42 streaks on this circuit ) has a 7:4-2-0-1 boxscore w/ second off the claim/second off the break Belmont based mid level dirt runners who were 1-2-3 last time out ( with an ROI of nearly four clams ). #5 VINEYARD SOUND went coast to coast like butter and toast against slightly weaker on the fifth of Sept., and despite stepping up, should probably be left in the hopper. 

 

Race  6 

1.Roma Carpe

2.Colloquist

3.Complex System

#11 ROMA CARPE nearly blew up the tote board when missing by just one length at boxcar odds two starts back, and the two who finished directly in front of her that day, came back to get their Polaroids taken when next in action, improving in the Beyer department by an average of 11 points. Ignore the most recent, as this one has bested just one of 29 when first to load, and note that Joey came home with a turf bomber on Sunday. Hmmmmm.....  #2B COLLOQUIST comes in today off back to back lifetime best #'s, and recognize that five returnees from the most recent have gone 5:2-2-0 when next facing the starter, while showing an improvement of 1.8 points from a speed figure aspect. #4 COMPLEX SYSTEM was kept in jail after the 8/16 snag, and returns for that same price ( where he finished second ) while now adding eye cups.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-1-6-3-4

 

Race  7

1.Hurricane Hill

2.Bourbon Currency 

3.Cobble Hill

#7 HURRICANE HILL got up late in the game to pick up the lion's share against conditional platers at Saratoga back in mid August, and the hat trick is well within reach today, especially with a solid Formulator stat in play. Over the last 1,826 days, barn is a crisp 4-9 with allowance turf runners of this ilk who finished first 31-67 days back & are 9-1 or less, with the winners paying $5, $16, $9 & $6, and there's a sub category of two fer two right here. #12 BOURBON CURRENCY comes in today off back to back career best figs, and we see no reason for any regression today -- except maybe the post. #8 COBBLE HILL has been a part of the exacta in his last quintet, and accomplished such while steadily climbing up the Beyer ladder, so who knows how high he can go.  OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-1A(MTO)-15(MTO)-2

 

Race  8 

1.Irish Constitution

2.No Mo' Spending

3.Stimulus Check

#2 IRISH CONSTITUTION was woefully overmatched in the Spinaway, but is back at a more palatable level here, and given the figure earned from the bow, she is an obvious factor if able to replicate the initial numero. Oh, and speaking of said overture, the two who finished directly behind her that day tallied victories in their next calls to the post, improving in the BSF area by an avg. of six points. #4 NO MO' SPENDING procured the sheepskin @  3-5 at the end of Aug., and is backed by a ( small ) trainer statistic which has Wilkes at 4:2-1-1 with ungraded dirt animals who cored their first win 12-50 days back ( $19 & $18 ). #6 STIMULUS CHECK has an appreciable jockey change when the announcements were made the day of her debut, as I believe Gutierrez or Cardenas was the original pilot that day, and Hernandez piloted this one perfectly when winning in visually impressive fashion. Homebred has fired off a bullet since, and draws ideally. 

 

Race  9 

1.Black Irish 

2.Moonshine Maker

3.Imperio D

#9 BLACK IRISH has lost by an average of 32 lengths in his three starts to date, but gets an appreciable change in the trainer dept. today, and note that the adjusted Beyer Speed Figure from the secondary dirt yielded an adjusted # of 56.6 ( which would fit well here ). Honk if you like Donk when being handed a runner coming off a break of 21-55 days at 53-1 or less, as he's won with half of his six starters ( 2-2 on dirt ) with nice payoffs of $72, $15 & $4. #12 MOONSHINE MAKER takes the biggest drop in the game off a disappointing initial spin and may wake up a bit. #8 IMPERIO D has lost ground in the lane in every start to date, and gives the impression of a horse who will keep hoodwinking you for money; leaving beneath.  


Belmont          ( Current ):     8-70        ( $81.80 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      19-70    ( 27.1% )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


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