SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/2
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's coverage of the Alcibiades from Keeneland, merely go back one page.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/2

 

Race  1

1.Judicial Restraint

2.Super Wicked Charm

3.Revenio

#5 JUDICIAL RESTRAINT comes in to the day's opener off a career best numero in the maiden breaking performance up north at the end of August, and although that was going two turns, we'd be remiss in excluding with the decent 1X placing just prior to that. Slim margin. #3 SUPER WICKED CHARM put forth a well beaten but well clear showing in a strung out field at this level in Toga Town, and also finished third in his sole try going one turn over a glib surface. #4 REVENIO can be forgiven the first try in the 16K ranks, as he was a'stumblin & a'bumblin at the onset, and deserves another shot. 

 

Race  2

1.Canarsie Girl 

2.Lady Commissioner

3.Wishes and Dreams

#2 CANARSIE GIRL hasn't seen the scene in a couple'a Memorial Days, but returns for a better outfit this afternoon, and although they don't give 16 month breaks in this sport for grits and giggles, we're assuaged by the recent work ledger. From a limited sampling, cousin Brucie is 2 for 4 when being handed a maiden claiming dirt runner & bringing them back off a hibernation of 51+ days ( $9 & $8 ). #5 LADY COMMISSIONER had a journey that only Tim Burton could appreciate up at The Lakes last time out, but lost by only a head that day, and is now backed by a decent DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, Papa Englehart has scored with half of his dirt dashers who were 1-2-3 51-55 days back & are 10-1 or less, w/a sub category of 1-1 right here ( positive ROI ). #4 WISHES AND DREAMS overcame some trouble to secure second place money 49 days back, and two returnees from that affair were first & third in the same heat down in Louisville next time out, with a negligible Beyer change.   NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-2-5.

 

Race  3

1.Saratoga Love

2.Speightstown Gal

3.Risky Mischief

#3 SARATOGA LOVE has won two of three, is one for two on the inner, and C-Squared is a poyfect three fer three with local optional turf sprinters who got the job done less than 54 days ago at 7-1 or lower ( $4, $5 & $6 ). #5 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL has hit the board in every sprint thus far ( three of them on the sod ), and Weaver nearly triples his normative 15% batting average with optional turf dashers who crashed the siesta 19-67 days back, with a sub category of 2-2 in Elmont ( $11, $9, $12 & $3 ). Recognize the fact that the lone start right here resulted in a score. #2 RISKY MISCHIEF bested a next out runner up when going over the gramma for the first time, and the pedigree tells us there's ample upside in that department.  OFF TURF: 4-2-3-1(MTO)-10(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Back Channel

2.Halo City

3.Yes I'm Looking

We don't foresee a scenario where we'll be delving any deeper than the top two for all our rolling action. #1 BACK CHANNEL has hit the board in her troika of outings to date ( elevating those Beyer numbers in the process ) slides in from the six slot to the pine, and Rice is 4 for 12 with BEL based maiden special weight dirt starters who hit the board 20-50 days in the rear ( $4 x 2, $6 & $14 ). Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #5 HALO CITY was a lively & decently clear runner up in similar spot about a month ago, ( her first try with eye cups ), and just may sit a perfect stalking trip. #3 YES I'M LOOKING has gotten a lot of bottom with some stamina building breezes up in Oklahoma for today's initial foray, and one of them was quite crisp ( 47 & 4 from the gate ), and although Zito hasn't won with a firster since Hector was a pup ( ohhhhhhhh-fer-85....NURSE !! ), we'll chunk beneath with a hungry jock assigned. 

 

Race  5

1.Sargeant Drive

2.Mr. Shortandsimple

3.Bobbyfromthepalm

#8 SARGEANT DRIVE disappointed in the most recent, but gets in very light and has done some decent work at Big Sandy; mild selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 MR. SHORTANDSIMPLE returned off the layoff to finish in the back half of the field in four straight, and has paid the ultimate price with a removal of his Macadamias. The good news is that there's been a bullet since the snippage, as this three year old finds himself at his lowest level to date. #4 BOBBYFROMTHEPALM is another on the dropdown and can close things out. 

 

Race  6 

1.Scanno

2.Doswell

3.Gauguin ( Ger )

#3 SCANNO shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and it's well within reach, given the back to back career best numeros posted up in Saratoga. Not digging the switch to Cancel here by any stretch of the imagination, but we're hoping this gelding can carry him to the line. #11 DOSWELL went coast to coast like butter and toast to procure the sheepskin in SAR on the eighth of August, and while a bounce is always possible, we're compelled to use. #5 GAUGUIN (GER) is a nibblah by rote ( 24:1-8-9 ) which includes several starts at this trip & on this course. Logical "undahs" candidate.  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-7(MTO)-10-1-2

 

Race  7

1.Lutescoot N Boogie

2.Tequilamemories

3.Malibu Luna

#2 LUTESCOOT N BOOGIE has closed out the triple in both starts thus farm and improved by approximately 16.2% in the adjusted figure dept. in the most recent try. $9,000 purchase draws a cozier slot here, and makes all kinds of sense. #7 TEQUILAMEMORIES begins her professional working life today, and while being the first foal out of a lightly raced dam who was 1 for 2 in dirt dashes, the top side of the pedigree is top notch, and we'll toss into the cake batter, despite the Nordic outfit. #5 MALIBU LUNA had a rough trip on Bijou's birthday, but still snagged 20% of the pot that day, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there.  Due to a late, late scratch in Race 7, #4 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race  8 

1.Basquiat 

2.Ever Dangerous

3.Plot the Dots

#5 BASQUIAT ( a famous artist https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Michel_Basquiat  buried in Brooklyn's magnificent Greenwood cemetery https://www.green-wood.com/ ) gave a good account of himself when going over the blades for the first time ( as many progeny of American Pharoah have been doing ), and barn is a solid 6-14 with those of this ilk who were in the money last out & are 10-1 or beneath ( positive return on investment ). #2 EVER DANGEROUS has been freshened up since being in the rear with the gear back in mid July, and draws well while owning a touch of back class. #3 PLOT THE DOTS has yet to finish out of the superfecta, and that includes an honest effort in the lone turf go round ( vs. tougher ); two nice moves since last in action.  OFF TURF: 3-2-6-5-13(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Half Right

2.Eagle Orb

3.Thin White Duke

#1 HALF RIGHT went all the way right outta the box at the Spaaaaaaaaahhh, and while the ridgling may have outrun his pedigree that day, this one is a half to three winning dirt printers -- including one who was 6 for 14 @ the trip. Will need a smart beginning. #4 EAGLE ORB showed a bit of improvement in his first start against winners ( never an easy thing to do ), when finishing second in the Funny Cide, and gets a tremendous upgrade in the jockey area now. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the BSF's of #5 THIN WHITE DUKE, as this one keeps getting better and better. Gelding is reunited with Manny Man today, and who knows where this one's ceiling is.  NOTE: AS OF 11:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  10

1.Fast Gordon

2.Boom Boom Kaboom

3.Broadway Joe

#7 FAST GORDON is a lightly raced "soon to be five year old" who gave it his all on the inner back on 9/19, and the speed number earned from that day is very strong for this kind. Over the last five years, DRF Formulator has Rice clicking at a 4 for 9 rate with mdclm. turf dashers who were I.T.M. 1-25 days back, with mutuels of $5 x 2, $6 & $7. #1 BOOM BOOM KABOOM has posted three solid running lines within his last four trips to the track, and while we'll be using, we're not quite sure what can get this one over the hump today. #11 BROADWAY JOE as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 7-2(MTO)-10-8-9(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont          ( Current ):     8-79        ( $81.80 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      23-79    ( 29.1% )( As of Friday morning ) 


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


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