SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 9/26 - Santa Anita - Three Grade One's
  
  

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Just a reminder that if you'd like today's full card Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 9/26 - Santa Anita - Three Grade One's

 

      Race 7        The Rodeo Drive 

1.Lady Prancealot

2.Tonahutu ( Ire )

3.Bodhicitta ( GB )

#6 LADY PRANCEALOT fell short by only a neck in a G2 event at Del Mar ( where the turf really doesn't meet the surf ) in a second off the layoff attempt, and historically speaking, this one is two for two in 3rd off the shelf engagements ( on firm ground ), while also faring well at this trip and over this course. According to DRF Formulator, Baltas has a snazzy 7:5-1-1 record with third off the respite graded turf stayers who crashed the fiesta last out, and are < 4-1 today ( $4.71 return on investment ). #1 TONAHUTU (IRE) won her only North american start when first to load, and has been doing "miraculous" work since being claimed by O'Neil. #3 BODHICITTA (GB) completes the Hot Dog/Guinness/Crumpets triple based on having won two of her last three, as well as owing a decent ledger in second off the hiatus spins.  OFF TURF: 2-5-4-1-3  NOTE: DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8        American        Pharoah

1.Notable Exception

2.Touchdown Brown

3.Weston

#4 NOTABLE EXCEPTION was visually impressive when winning at first asking in Arlington Heights, and as this one is better bred for the dirt than the poly/turf, we wouldn't be surprised if an improvement off that effort was in the works today. From an itty bitty sampling, 12% barn has won with two of three second timers stretching out for the first time ( dirt ). #1 TOUCHDOWN BROWN was a lively runner up when posting a big fig at DMR on the 4th, and we like when trainers aren't scared to make an equipment/medication change after a solid effort, and this one leaves the hood back in the barn today. Trainer who clicks at just 11% triples that batting average with locally based dirt routers who were 1-2-3 less than 44 days back ( 10-1 or undah ) and there's a hefty $3.61 ROI there as well. #7 WESTON has already earned more than 21X teh 7K auction price, and shedrow clicks at a 5-8 rate with those going long here on the sane who were ITM 1-37 days ago ( 12-1 or lowah ) w/payouts of $15, $3, $4 x 2 & 5.  NOTE: DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10 Awesome  Again

1.Improbable

2.Maximum Security

3.Sleepy Eyes Todd

#2 IMPROBABLE shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and it's well within reach for a barn that's 3 of 5 with graded dirt stayers who won 51-61 days back & are beneath 7-2 ( $3 x 2 & $4 ). Runner up from the last got the photo taken next out, basically replicating the speed figure. #5 MAXIMUM SECURITY has won both starts since being switched over to Lidocaine Bob's barn, and while making all kinds of sense, we like the odds offered above a bit more than the 3/5 for this one. #3 SLEEPY EYES TODD had it all his own way in Chuck Town, and while that won't happen here, we like that he'll be brought over by someone who's 9-32 with those going long on the sand who tallied a win 8-50 days back & are 27-1 or lower ( $2.02 R.O.I. ).

 

Belmont          ( Current ):     6-50        ( $46.70 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-3  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      13-50    ( 26.0% ) ( As of Saturday morning )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       6-31       ( $55.40 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     12-31   ( 37.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017