SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/2 - Keeneland - Alcibiades
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's full card Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/2 - Keeneland - Alcibiades

 

 Race 9

1.Travel Column

2.Simply Ravishing

3.Thoughtfully

#2 TRAVEL COLUMN was visually impressive when winning at first asking over at CD two fortnights ago, and as this two year old went for more than 21X the $40,000 stud fee at auction, you know he's been well meant all along. Chap is a half to three winning turf stayers, and with Frosted, Tapit, & Victory Gallop in the family tree, today's initial stretchout should be no problemo. Barn won this race last year with a similar runner. We like the versatility that #7 SIMPLY RAVISHING has shown in winning both starts to date -- a two turn turf event & a dirt dash -- and according to DRF Formulator, McPeek ( who has two others signed on ) is two for five with second time routers on the dirt in the graded ranks ( 18-1 or less ), who scored 8-50 days back ( $10 & $36 ). #1 THOUGHTFULLY is two for two & draws snugly for today's first try going long.  


Belmont          ( Current ):     8-79        ( $81.80 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      23-79    ( 29.1% )( As of Friday morning )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017