SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/3


Decent day for us here yesterday with a $19 winner, three rolling doubles of $141, $23 & $70, five exacta boxes of $63, $84, $20, $15 & $76, two triple boxes of $132 & $315, and two rolling pick threes of $124 & $351.  

Just a reminder that for full coverage of today's three grade one's from Keeneland, merely go back one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #9 So Enchanting  Race 10 - #7 Hedda

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/3


Race  1


2.Thea's Theme

3.Girl of Toscanova

#5 MARYANORGINGER spit the bit rather readily when returning from a 4 1/2 month respite, but switches from Luzzi to Jose this afternoon, and given the percentages of both riders, that's essentially the equivalent of first time Lasix. Blinkers are left in the shedrow today for a gal who's now available for purchase for the first time; recognize the fact that the lone tally came right here. #3 THEA'S THEME is another who's never had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump until now, and goes turf to dirt for today's second off the L/O spin. #4 GIRL OF TOSCANOVA posted a career best numero in the lone try off a sabbatical, and it came at a similar trip right here. Sole outing when in with a tag ended up w/a photograph being taken.  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-6-9.


Race  2

1.Bay Storm

2.State Crown

3.Lilly Simone

#5 BAY STORM has a few decent morning moves on the docket for today's career starter ( including one from the gate ), and is extremely well bred for this sorta deal. $30,000 bred gal went for more than 13 times that amount at auction, and gets a fair bug for today's debut. #4 STATE CROWN is another performing admirably for the beginning of her working life, and has a lot of green coursing through her veins. Would be no surprise. #3 LILLY SIMONE posted a decent figaro first time out and gets off the rail a bit; should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there.  OFF TURF: 3-4-1-6(MTO)-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 SO ENCHANTING doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?


Race  3

1.More Graytful

2.Golani Brigade

3.Thorny Tale

#3 MORE GRAYTFUL has partaken in the superfecta in all starts but one, and is reacquainted with blinkers  ( which were affixed for the score two starts back ). Because of a dearth of riders here this weekend, connections are compelled to use Carmouche, who's been in the single digits for quite some time now; definitely demand value. #1 GOLANI BRIGADE returned off more than a year absence to go all the way versus allowance foes up north ( his second straight win ), and deserves your respect once again. #5 THORNY TALE is another who loves cashing checks, and it's tough to dispute the poyfect 2-2 mark at Big Sandy. 


Race  4 

1.Army Wife

2.Simply the Best

3.Jordy Can Tap

#2 ARMY WIFE is an omnifig ( " rare as the ivory billed woodpecker." ) in such that both of this one's speed figures supersede anything that anyone has posted, and even better -- what we feel will be able to post. Down the lane. #9 SIMPLY THE BEST showed a bit of early hoof when starting things out on August 23rd, and January foal is eligible to move forward with that race under her girthstrap. #5 JORDY CAN TAP as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-6-9


Race  5

1.Royal Charlotte

2.Frank's Rockette

3.Bronx Beauty

#2 ROYAL CHARLOTTE immolated some baccala when closing out the exacta at 3/5 off the brief respite, and the jockey improvement in play is relevant, as Javy was aboard for this one's last score. One more shot for a gal with some fair back class. Barn has a tight 3-5 record with locally based second off the break graded dirt dashers off breaks of less than 40 days ( 12-1 or undah ), with parimutuals of $3, $5 & $8. #4 FRANK'S ROCKETTE has yet to finish out of the ex. in nine calls to the post and is a deserving chalk. #1 BRONX BEAUTY ( cross entered at PIM, so check the changes ) is 10 for 22 lifetime, and what the hell's wrong with that?  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Public Sector

2.Step Dancer 

3.Nathan Detroit

#3 PUBLIC SECTOR overcame a bit of trouble to procure the sheepskin at first asking way up in the Adirondacks back in mid August, and the turf Tomlinson of 443 ( which is about the highest we've ever seen, 480 being the max ) tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. Wouldn't be surprised to see big things from this one down the road, and although he's a late bloomer, we wonder if he's Breeder's Cup nominated. Hmmm....  Barclay, his exercise rider & myself watched #7 STEP DANCER blow up the tote board at first asking from our respective Louisville hotel rooms on Kentucky Derby week ( who would have thought that would've been his lone winner that weekend ), and aforementioned runner with unproven pedigree can be any kind. #5 NATHAN DETROIT ( also put in at KEE manana ) got the job done in his primary engagement at the Pea Patch, and we're thinking that the BSF's from that heat were false, as ALL seven returnees showed improvement next out ( by an average of 7.7 points ) with the allotment owning a cumulative 7:2-3-0-1 mark ( from six sui generis races ).  OFF TURF: 3-1-5-4-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATHC THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7

1.Master Piece

2.Highland Sky

3.Cross Border 

#2 MASTER PIECE is G1 placed back in his native land, and as the mile and a half time was 2:26 -- from a field of 16 -- we're thinking this first time Brown runner is no slouch. ( "Don't sell yourself short, judge..." ) Lasix now a part of the equation, and it's hard to argue with the worktab. #7 HIGHLAND SKY was properly moved up to 2nd when last in action at 23-1 in the Bowling Green, and hard knocking 7YO has been a part of the super in all three starts on the Widener and can spice things up beneath at double digit odds. #5 CROSS BORDER has been a part of the "exactor" ( for those north of the border ) in 15 of his last 18 outings -- and missed doing such in the remaining troika by just a total of three lengths.  OFF TURF: 5-7-6-1-3


Race  8 

1.Code of Honor 


3.Stan the Man

#5 CODE OF HONOR is two for three off a layoff, three for five here, and two comebackers from the Whitney were victorious in their next engagements, essentially replicating the speed figures from their prior deals. Logical favorite, but by no means a cinch. #4 ENDORSED is a bit of an in and outer, but sheds four pounds off the August placing ( when rank ), and while we'll be using, not digging 7/2 at all. #2 STAN THE MAN ( scratched out of the Maryland race for this ) is one of two off the pine and has the ability to send of rate. Can land a share. 


Race  9 

1.Moon Over Miami

2.Domestic Spending ( GB ) 


#8 MOON OVER MIAMI has improved over his last quartet, ringing up two wins over his recent troika, and who knows how high this one could go  in the numeros department. Mild choice. #4 DOMESTIC SPENDING (GB) is another who's gotten better and better and better, and is but a length & change shy of perfection. Castellano takes over for Irad, who will be out for a while. Should be rolling late. #6 PIXELATE has never finished off the board, and we like how this fella doesn't need to take his track with him, as this will be his tenth different course from twelve starts.  OFF TURF: 6-2-1-9-7  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  10

1.She's a Majectic

2.Show Me the Honey

3.Khali Magic

These three and no more for all our rolling action in the day's finale. #5 SHE'S A MAJESTIC was in the back half of the field first time out, but The As-Man ( from an itty bitty survey ) is 2-6 with second time starters making this surface transition at today's level ( OTB 15-57 days back ), going short at 15-1 or less ( $12 & $7 ). #3 SHOW ME THE HONEY has a maturity advamntage over most signed on ( January foal ) and brings in tow a few decent workouts for today's first spin. #8 KHALI MAGIC rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-8-5-13(AE)-10  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 HEDDA

Belmont          ( Current ):     9-89       ( $101.00 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      26-89    ( 29.2% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout