SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/28


As for yesterday, to quote Ralphie..."Skunked." 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #8 Mo Ready  Race 6 - #5 Tellaperfecttale

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/28


Race  1

1.Big Castle 

2.Tough Tickets


#1 BIG CASTLE has been kept in jail since the April 22nd purchase, and returns right back at the level from the 2nd place finish that day. Gelding goes from an apprentice to a journeyman ( who missed his mounts on Sunday due to an injury, so check the changes ), and bizarrely, breaks from the innermost four slots for the first time in 11 starts. Could trip out. #3 TOUGH TICKETS ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all those who like to grind out a show profit ) lost by a honker in a near identical spot on May Day, & while sensible, keep in mind that there was a voided claim two back, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #4 CENTAVO has hit the super in four of his last five ( excluding the pre layoff outing, when something clearly went amiss ), & can land a share here.


Race  2

1.Secret Rules


3.The Big Grey

#5 SECRET RULES has lost ground in the lane in his last half dozen, but is made available for purchase for the first time, & from an itty bitty sampling, Mott has won w/ both of his dirt runners in that scenario ( 51-61 days ) at Belmont OR with this jock. #1 TRUEBELIEVE retains the pre-layoff pilot ( something we always dig ), and nibbler has partaken in the super in seven straight ( leaving out the start before an elongated absence. #3 THE BIG GREY closed with a rush to pick up second place $ against weaker last out, & may land a share here. 


Race  3

1.The Sleepychipmunk

2.Tuesday's Child 

3.Front Porch

#4 THE SLEEPYCHIPMUNK showed a bit of improvement over his last pair when transitioning to the sod, but they go back to the main today, and barn is 5 of 12 when doing such with those who missed the baccala less than a month ago at 16-1 or less, and the payouts for that sampling were quite hefty -- $34, $17, $14, $9 & $3. #5 TUESDAY'S CHILD will be led over by a 7% shotcaller who nearly triples that rate with locally based mdclm. dirt equines who were 1-2-3 < 46 days back that are 19-1 or undah ( 10:2-3-4-1 ), with mutuels of $15 & $18. #1 FRONT PORCH could perk up in taking the biggest drop in the game.


Race  4 

1.American Lincoln

2.Jack the Cat


Not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly.  #5 AMERICAN LINCOLN bested more than half the field ( at 52-1 ) when going over the gramma for the first time in more than 4 1/2 years, so perhaps "better late than never" with this guy. Note that the front wraps were removed for that effort, so that's another positive to hang your hat on. #2 JACK THE CAT found the line first in his lone try when loading 1st, and also owns a 4:2-1-1 ledger on the Inner Turf Course. Would be no surprise, especially if the splits are swift. #10 PRIORITIZE as good as any for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 MO READY fills the bill, as Rudy Rod is 0-10 in all pertinent categories.   OFF TURF: 2-5-6(MTO)-10-1(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 10:49, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.  NOTE: AS OF 1:29, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5

1.With Bells On

2.I'm Glad


#3 WITH BELLS ON put forth a solid showing when going seven panels first time out, and although some may be discouraged by this one having faded late AND stretching out today, today's mile doesn't have a "full" second turn, so perhaps this one can use that 23 & 3 speed shown in the bow to walk the dog a bit today. #10 I'M GLAD took the overland route when rallying nicely to complete the "perfecta" in the Lexington debut, & sheds 32oz. off of that while (presumably) catching firm ground for the first time. #2 UNWHIRLED is bred decently for this trip & can land a share.  OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4


Race  6 

1.Makin My Move

2.Silver Fist

3.Captivating Cara

#8 MAKIN MY MOVE hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but has been working well for the comebacker, gets the wonder drug for the first time, lands in a soft spot, gets pre L/O Looie, and draws well. #6 SILVER FIST is another getting the big "L" for today's return, and owns a win and a third from as many tries over this track. #2 CAPTIVATING CARA is a nibblah by rote, but best work has come at today's dist. of ground.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 TELLAPERFECTTALE


Race  7



3.Lord Flintshire

#1 SPETTRO has improved over his last quartet, but what really stands out is the last pair on the gramma -- which includes a game placing in his sole try when returning off a hibernation. Witha  dearth of proven speed signed on, it likely all comes down to this one breaking alertly. #9 BARRAGE hasn't seen the scene in more than half'a calendar, but new bossman knows how to have 'em ready, and bay boy won his only try at this trip ( tossing the pre layoff mess ). #4 LORD FLINTSHIRE placed in both 2nd off the layoff engagements, and also owns a win & a showing beneath Jose. Sensible addition.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-1-8-11(MTO)-13(MTO)


Race  8 

1.The Reds

2.Stage Raider

3.Market Alert

#3 THE REDS has gone 87-92 in finishing 3rd & 2nd in both tries since returning off the sabbatical, and could be cycling into a decent effort here -- especially if able to secure a tidier sojourn. From a Formulator P.O.V., Kimmel ( 13% on the norm ) is a groovy 7-18 with optional dirt horsies who were ITM less than 51 days in the past ( $72, $14, $8, $6 & $4, $5 & $18) with a sub category of 2 fer 3 at this locale. #9 STAGE RAIDER cuts back for today's third off the hiatus deal and looms a major threat. #4 MARKET ALERT is in good form & owns a nice record both at this trip and over this strip. 


Race  9 

1.Wish You Well

2.Chardy Party ( Ire )


#4 WISH YOU WELL got trounced when tackling winners for the first time in Louisville on Derby Eve, but that's never an easy spot, and $550,000 purchase ( who was bred for a mere 6K ) takes his initial attempt on the lawn for the first time in the day's feature. That last part is of some relevance, as this one is a half to Chanteline, who ended her career with four consecutive scores in sod sprints over firm ground ( a Grade 3, a listed stakes, & two allowances ). BIG shot to make amends at a price. #12 CHARDY PARTY (IRE) got up in time to win at first asking in the Bluegrass state, and the pedigree tells us the result was likely not an aberration. #9 DERRYNANE has a solid resume'.  OFF TURF: 1-9-7-3-13(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 10:52, DUE TO A SCRATCH, #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.


Race  10

1.Sharp Sensation

2.Brennan's War


#8 SHARP SENSATION snatched defeat from the jaws of victory when being set down in this race at Ozone Park at Aqueduct, but we'll stick with him, as barn is two of five w/ maiden platers going short on the grass who were ITM 13-57 days back. #2 BRENNAN'S WAR could need one off the long absence, but owns some decent PP's, and we'll toss in at a price. #1 ERIDROMOS drops in class & drops a couple of pistachios since last seen. Barn occasionally pops at a price.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-4-6


Belmont             ( Current ):35-161   ( $213.80 ) Beatable   Favorites    2-7  ( 28.6% )  Favorites  Win %: 57-161 ( 35.2% ) ( As of Saturday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 5-25      ( $30.40 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1  ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-23    ( 34.1% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout