SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/29
  
  

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Three winners & two Beatable Favorites on the day yesterday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):  Race 2 - #2 Rhubarb Martini  Race 5 - #7 Street Fight NOTE: AS OF 12:22, #7 IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/29

 

Race  1

1.Moonshiningbright

2.Suppressor

3.Inspiration Point

These three and no more for all our rolling action to start out the day.   #1 MOONSHININGBRIGHT hasn't been in action in more than ten months, but Charlie is "Good and Plenty" withy his locally based maiden claiming dirt stocks off breaks of more than 50 days ( 9-1 or undah ), as he's 3-8 with that type ( $10, $8 & $6 ). Pre-layoff pilot returns, which is always a positive. #4 SUPPRESSOR has the best overall body of work in the field, but is beginning to look like a professional maiden, so we'll leave beneath. #5 INSPIRATION POINT returns at the level claimed from April this afternoon, and this heat is a lot easier than the submarine races, so we'll chunk in.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( MAKE A WISH !! ), DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-1-5.

 

Race  2

1.Game Theory

2.Rainout 

3.Intelligencereport

#4 GAME THEORY outran her odds in a big way when closing out the exacta at this level 16 days in the rear, and 5% Jones is a snappy 7:3-3-0-1 with mid level dirt entrants who crashed the party less than 32 days back who are 9-1 or beneath ( $19, $15 & $17 ). Tough to put Harkie on top, but in all honesty, this one shouldn't be worse than second. #7 RAINOUT ( out of 'Weather Permitting' ) comes in off a game maiden breaker on the Oldsmar lawn, and as he's as equally bred for the brown as the green, we see no reason a repeat isn't within reach. #3 INTELLIGENCEREPORT goes turf to dirt, two turns to one, gets "The Big L", and finds himself at his lowest level to date -- would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression here.  BEATABLE FAVIORITE: #2 RHUBARB MARTINI will be overbet off teh two turn deal, but as her 1X #'s are on the lowish side, we'll exclude. 

 

Race  3

1.Storied Fella

2.Curlin's Wisdom

3.Patrick the Great

#1 STORIED FELLA has been claim protected in both starts to date, and displayed marked improvement from his first start to the second, and now gets Lasix while drawing the inside. There may be some decent value w/this one. #3 CURLIN'S WISDOM has yet to miss a superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat? #2 PATRICK THE GREAT was a mite sluggish at the onset when catching a fast track for the first time, but the figaro still cam back okay, and Irad sticks around, which is encouraging.  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Troubleshooter

2.Vintage Hollywood

3.Six Percent

#4 TROUBLESHOOTER was in the rear with the gear when last facing the starter back in the fall, but gelding is three for five off "true" breaks in the action, and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, 'Miah is a tight five of seven with Belmont based optional male dirt stock who haven't been seen in more than 50 days & are 22-1 or undah ( $6 x 3, $7 & $15 ). #1 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD is 5:1-3-0 when first to load, digs this trip, and we like that he's still kept above the purchase price from two back; playable. #6 SIX PERCENT was photogenic in his sole "2nd off the L/O" attempt when going one turn, and digs the scenery here. 

 

Race  5

1.Urban Forest

2.Emboite ( Ire )

3.Street Fight

#1 URBAN FOREST overcame a bit of trouble to grab 20% of the pot in a near identical placement on the first of the month, and as this one has improved over his last quintet, we see the first win being well within reach. No worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there. #5 EMBOITE (IRE) looks to be the only one with a chance of upsetting the apple cart based on the decent overture & excellent pedigree.  BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #7 STREET FIGHT  OFF TURF: 1-5-4(MTO)2-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, #7 IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  6 

1.Into the Sunrise

2.Voodoo Zip

3.Rustler

#3 INTO THE SUNRISE went coast to coast like butter and toast in his only 3rd off the L/O jammie, and it came when getting juice while toting an extra 48 ounces. Price play in a wide open affair. #6 VOODOO ZIP has completed the exacta in both 2nd off the respite tries, and won his only start on the Inner -- which coincidentally, came at today's trip. #4 RUSTLER was a solid runnerup in his only start off a hibernation, and has the speed to be dangerous.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-4-3

 

Race  7

1.Chris and Dave 

2.No Burn

3.Dark Storm

#4 CHRIS AND DAVE has been extremely sharp in the 2nd & 3rd starts off the bench, and this war horse figures prominent once again, despite moving up the ladder. #6 NO BURN shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and it's well within reach, despite being more than doubled up in class & moving to a less successful outfit. #7 DARK STORM ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has been claimed in six of his last eight, and with good reason, as he often gives a good account of himself; best work has come at today's dist. of ground, and is another aggressively moved up in class. 

 

Race  8 

1.Big Invasion

2.High Front

3.Chanceaux

#4 BIG INVASION has done nearly nothing wrong in her career, running style says that she should handle today's stretchout just fine, and from a trainer stat perspective, C-Squared has won with half of his eight ungraded sod sprinters who won less than seven weeks back & are 5-1 or beneath ( $2.83 ROI ). Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #2 HIGH FRONT ( spotted today at MTH as well, so take a peek at the scratches ) has yet to miss the money and who are we to rock that boat ? #1 CHANCEAUX cuts back today ( sensible, as he scored in his only turf dash ) and gets the best rider in America. OFF TURF:1-3(MTO)-7-2-5

 

Race  9 

1.Dante's Fire

2.Bingo John

3.Not Yet Charlie

#7 DANTE'S FIRE hasn't been to the races in quite some time, but five year old is one of two on the ITC, and from an itty bitty sampling, Maker is 2-2 w/ mid level turf stayers in this zip code ( $7 & $5 ). Meeeeeeek selection in a finale with no first draft eliminations. #2 BINGO JOHN ( "That's a bingo !" ) sheds some lb.'s after a hum drum turf bow, but is one for two when going long, and we'll include at what's likely to be a big number. #5 NOT YET CHARLIE is 1 for 2 off the pine, @ Saez sees fit to stick around for this one.  OFF TURF: 6-3(MTO)-4-7-1

  

Belmont             ( Current ):38-171   ( $230.70 ) Beatable   Favorites    2-9  ( 22.2% )  Favorites  Win %: 62-171 ( 36.3% ) ( As of Sunday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 5-25      ( $30.40 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1  ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-23    ( 34.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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