SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Analysis - 5/30 - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless Our Fallen Heroes - Santa Anita - Three Grade One's


Just a reminder, that for today's full card Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Graded Stakes - 5/30 - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless Our Fallen Heroes - Santa Anita - Three Grade One's


Race  4

1.There Goes Harvard

2.Royal Ship ( Brz )


#1 THERE GOES HARVARD has hit the board in every race where the jock has stayed aboard, and that includes a well clear placing at 9-1 in the lone T to D attempt, and a 5:1-2-2 ledger in Arcadia. Not a big fan of Herrera getting the boot, but Irad is a more than capable substitute, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this one break sharply out of the gate in an attempt to get the lead, and if that shouldn't come to fruition, sitting a pocket trip. #2 ROYAL SHIP (BRZ) found the line first in his sole second off the layoff dirt try, and is a head shy of a poyfect three for three record at SA. #4 DEFUNDED likes it here and can land a share.


Race  5

1.Smooth Like Strait

2.Count Again


#5 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT has done sensatiomal work at this trip & over this strip, and is backed by a tidy but tight DRF Formuklator stat, which has McCarthy at 3 for 5 w/locally based graded sod stayers who were ITN 23-47 days in the rear ( no Lasix ) that are less than 9 to 5 9 9 ( $3 & $4 x 2 ). Deserving chalk. #2 COUNT AGAIN can be forgiven the last over softish ground, and owns a lovely 7:4-0-1 at today's distance of ground. #1 MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 4-5-2-6-3


Race  10

1.Going Global ( Ire )

2.England's Rose


#6 GOING GLOBAL (IRE) is two fer two in turf routes off the bench, and has never lost in five starts at Santa Anita. Not that she needs it, but will be led over by a conditioner who's 5:3-1-0 with S.A. based graded turf routers who tallied a win 35-67 days back ( ridden by Prat ), who are NOT receiving the wonder drug ( $4, $5 & $3 ). #8 ENGLAND'S ROSE has a win & a placing from as many 2nd off the shelf engagements, a win & a showing from as many starts when breaking from the outermost two posts ( none overlapping ), and we like the jockey switch to Cedillo here. #2 CANOODLING went all the way against weaker on the first of the month, and may last for a slice vs. these.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-7-6  NOTE: AS OF 3:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, TEH #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Belmont             ( Current ):42-180   ( $235.30 ) Beatable   Favorites    3-10 ( 22.2% )  Favorites  Win %: 66-180 ( 36.5% ) ( As of Monday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 5-25      ( $30.40 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1  ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-23    ( 34.1% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout