Just one winner to start out the new year for us, but we look to get the ball rolling today!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st - Elite Forces | 2nd - Street Swag | 3rd - Necromancer |
#2 ELITE FORCES hasn't been seen in about three months, but was doing some fine work before being sidelined, and cheaply bred runner is now entered at his lowest level to date. The good news, tho, is that this outfit is 5:2-1-0 with locally based mid level sand stock off respites of 55-250 days, with the winners coming back $4 & $9. Slight edge in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #4 STREET SWAGG was as flat as a pancake last out, but gets a touch of class relief, and 16% Miceli is 4-14 with runners of this ilk who missed the baccala less than 34 days ago ( $8 x 2, $15 & $6 ). #6 NECROMANCER has been in absentia for nine flips of the calendar, but is 3:1-1-0-1, and his best work has come right here.
| Race 2 | 1st - Run Devil | 2nd - Timed Out | 3rd - Whister's Style |
#4 RUN DEVIL is a fairly consistent sort who's done her best work over this oval, as the 8:2-4-2 local mark stands out favorably against the 13:1-2-2 ledger otherwise. #3 TIMED OUT got smacked around a bit at the onset last time out, but is one of two in second off the shelf engagements, and completed the triple the only time she was beneath today's helmsman. Could be coming late with any pace to cut into. #7 WHISTER'S STYLE is a well traveled sort making her local debut this afternoon, and has won one of two starts when last to load. Mare digs the trip and barn goes to one of their go-to riders.
| Race 3 | 1st - Beary Funny | 2nd - Nobilis | 3rd - Escape Key |
#8 BEARY FUNNY has partaken in the superfecta in all four starts to date, and takes the biggest drop in the game this afternoon, while having a decided edge in ( from an accumulated standpoint ) in the Beyer department. #2 NOBILIS hung up an adjusted 75.8 the only time we was in a 3rd off the L/O scenario, and you may get some decent value here. #3 ESCAPE KEY has only beaten home two in just as many starts, but catches a fast track for the second time, and is also in a second time Lasix spot. Sometimes these lightly raced runners are the way to go in a race like this, and we'll include in our rollers.
| Race 4 | 1st - Optic Way | 2nd - Bold Victory | 3rd - Portos |
#5 OPTIC WAY nearly went all the way when returning off am eight month hibernation, as this nine year old warhorse is still gamely cashing plenty of checks. Brown boy has hit the board in three of four "second off the bench" deals, and is a threat to go all the way if left to his own devices up front. #2 BOLD VICTORY flopped when making his first start off the claim, but goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot, and toss runners from this clan at your own peril. #4 PORTOS recently received the unkindest cut of all ( At the age of 7 ? Really ?? ), and may perk up a bit.
| Race 5 | 1st - Big Engine | 2nd - Tommy Gun | 3rd - Bar Fourteen |
#3 BIG ENGINE crushes for the hat trick. #4 TOMMY GUN is another coming in off back to back tallies, and they'll have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #5 BAR FOURTEEN was a gutsy victor when last in action at Charles Town. and as they're in hiatus currently, is compelled to tango with some tougher foes up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one rate just a bit today.
| Race 6 | 1st - She's Awesome | 2nd - Stop Giggling | 3rd - Magniloquent |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #7 SHE'S AWESOME ( who should be no wore than 3rd for all you show grinders out there ) has partaken in the superfecta in all her starts ( sans the bow and turf disaster ), but despite being a nibbler by rote, we're assuaged by the solid DRF Formulator stat in play. Over the last 60 months, this outfit more than doubles their normative 20% batting average when it comes to their Aqueduct based allowance dirt entrants ( ridden by this pilot ) who crashed the fiesta less than three fortnights back, as they're 5-12 in that regards. #2 STOP GIGGLING went coast to coast like butter and toast when getting her working papers last month, and Levine's only had two second time starters who got their diplomas less than 40 days back ( with Lasix ), and one won ( $17 ) with the other finishing second. #3 MAGNILOQUENT has only been an extremely fragile sort, but got her photo taken the only time she returned off a break on the main, and J/T combo have won their last four non stakes runners ( excluding firsters ), with parimiutual returns of $4, $6, $9 & $19
| Race 7 | 1st - Majestic Return | 2nd - Cousin Kristi | 3rd - I'm Just Kiddin |
#7 MAJESTIC RETURN has steadily improved over each and every start over a glib surface, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling lies in that regards. Filly can send or rate just a bit, and shedrow has score with both of their Ozone Park based dirt equines who hit the board 48-50 days in the rear ( $11 & $9 ). Looking live once again. #2 COUSIN KRISTI has hung up her two best figs since showing her muzzle in the Big Apple, and sheds six pounds off a 2+ length defeat, which is fine by us. Lightly raced five year old has a lot of wood to chop, to make back that $75,000 auction price -- as well as the bevy of expenses since then. #1 IM JUST KIDDIN overcame a boatlaoad of trouble to lose by only a length in her lone try off the pine, and is a factor if sound & fully cranked up. NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-7-1.
| Race 8 | 1st - Fluorescent Bay | 2nd - The Mighty Don | 3rd - Sin Nombre |
#8 FLUORESCENT BAY has yet to finish in the top five in that number of starts, and after having disappeared off the worktab for a bit more than three months, finds himself at his lowest level for a 5% barn that has an interesting trainer stat in play. Over the last 1,826 days, Robbie Davis is a poyfect three of three with sand sprinters ( getting "The Big L" ) off respites of 105 days or more at 43-1 or below. The winners for that study came back a whopping $73, $32 & $6, and we're hoping Jackie can get us a late Christmas present. #4 THE MIGHTY DON is another who's yet to see these depths, and shotcaller is 5 of 8 when giving his dirt runners this kind of drop off breaks of < 51 days, beneath the 12-1 watermark ( $3.99 return on investment ). #5 SIN NOMBRE completes our triad of Formulator selections, based on Handal's 4 fer 15 record with AQU maiden claiming dirt runnahs off L/O's of 6-50 days @ 8-1 or lower.
Aqueduct 1-9 ( $4.60 ) Beatable Favorites ( N/A ) Favorite's Win % 3-8 ( 37.5% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
