Just a couple'a chalky winners for us here yesterday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st - Twirling Vine | 2nd - Watch Hill | 3rd - Clever Forever |
#5 TWIRLING VINE returned off a bit of a freshening to set the early pace at 10-1 before fading a bit to finish 3rd in this race underneath today's pilot. Horse was toting 126 that day, which leads us to believe that the bug was subbing for a listed journeyman that day. That's a LOT of lead in the saddle, and could forget to stop in carrying 80 less ounces this afternoon. #6 WATCH HILL has improved with each passing start, so right from the get go, who knows where his roof is in that regards. Gelding draws the outside for the first time, and just may sit a perfect trip. #1 CLEVER FOREVER has been a part of the superfecta in all of his sand starts, and has eye cups added for the first time while drawing the inside.
| Race 2 | 1st - Speights Dance | 2nd - Dolce Veloce | 3rd - Mangia |
#6 SPEIGHTS DANCE got smacked around at the onset last time out, and that was likely the cause for her lackluster 3rd place finish, as she was farther back than ever before at the quarter. Gal drops down to a level of her career best ( and race best ) numbah, and it looks like the race goes through her. #7 DOLCE VELOCE takes the biggest drop in the biz this afternoon, and Mott is a saucy three of five when doing such to his locally based dirt entrants off L/O's of 47 days or lowah ( getting the "Big L" ), and said sinners came back $4, $3 & $8. #4 MANGIA has been in the money in both starts thus far, and new barn enlists the services of a decent bug.
| Race 3 | 1st - Tempermental | 2nd - Beautiful Karen | 3rd - Eros's Girl |
#9 TEMPERMENTAL has always been a very consistent sort, and got the job done two of the last three times she was made available for purchase in a track labeled FST. From a trainer stat point of view, Atras is a groovy 13:9-1-1-1 w/Aqueduct based dirt horsies at this level that were ITM 23-43 days in the rear ( ridden by today's jock ), and there's a sweet $3.57 R.O.I. in that regards. No worse than second for all you place punters out there. #2 BEAUTIFUL KAREN appears to have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart, based on the solid penultimate effort and likely having needed the most recent. #5 EROS'S GIRL was a well clear 38-1 runner up the only time she had a "For Sale" stickah attached to her rump, and totes the lightest impost of her career. NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-3-2.
| Race 4 | 1st - Hot Rod Rumble | 2nd - Jester's Song | 3rd - Hatch |
#1 HOT ROD RUMBLE has immolated baccala over his last duet, but his best work has come in Ozone Park ( 4:2-2-0, compared to being 10:0-2-2 elsewhere ), is 2:1-1-0 when first to load on a fast track, and according to DRF Formulator, Jacobsen has won with half of his six dirt runners off layoffs of 51-53 days ( 14-1 or below ). The winners returned a healthy $17, $9 & $13, and there may be a touch of value here, given the six straight defeats. #8 JESTER'S SONG has done his best work at today's distance of ground, and you can feel free to upgrade the last by a few points. #2 HATCH has instantly proven to be yet another good claim by Jimmy Ferraro, as the grey gelding handled the class hike with aplomb, in gutsily getting up by a honker. Another class hike along with eight additional lb.'s have us leaving this one beneath.
| Race 5 | 1st - Pit Boss | 2nd - Goldini | 3rd - Cool Quartet |
#7 PIT BOSS put forth an honest showing in this race three weeks in the rear, and despite being winless in Queens, is backed by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last five yrs., this clan has a crisp 4 for 7 ledger with Aqueduct Racecourse based dirt stock at today's level, who were in the money < three fortnights back at 20-1 or less ( ridden by this jockey ). The mutuels for that survey were $14, $12, $3 & $8, and we'll give this one a slight nod. #2 GOLDINI has been a part of the super in 11 of his last 12 on the main, and should be in the thick of things once again. #8 COOL QUARTET has been kept in jail since the December 1st purchase, and after placing that day, drops $3,500 to a level that he's a neck shy of having won his last three at.
| Race 6 | 1st - Remember The Name | 2nd - Augustine Red | 3rd - Badlands Ruler |
#9 REMEMBER THE NAME enters today off of back to back solid efforts, but despite the recent tally, is suddenly in need of the miracle drug, you know, having just turned three and all. That being said, barn is three of five with dirt runnahs who were purchased 8-43 days in the past coming in off a maiden score ( $4, $6 & $9 ). #5 AUGUSTINE RED ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) is another getting juice off the maiden win & claim, and as he improved from his first sand outing to the followup, the sky is still the proverbial limit. #6 BADLANDS RULER completes our troika of choices coming in off a win, claim, while getting "The Big L"; another of whose BSF's you can draw an upwards arrow beside. NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st - Icy Reply | 2nd - Everly's Girl | 3rd - I'mHavingAMoment |
#9 ICY REPLY has proven to be yes -- another solid acquisition for James Ferraro -- enters today off of FOUR successive lifetime best #'s, and as we feel all four of those were against tougher competition, today has the potential of being even better, no ? Gets even better when you see that the aforementioned bossman is a snappy 5:4-0-1 with allowance ladies who won 10-43 days back, and those who were victorious paid $4, $10 $8 & $5. #5 EVERLYS GIRL owns a win & a runner up finish from two "3rd off the shelf" one turn dirt events, and this mare's finest work has come at this dx.. #1 I'MHAVINGAMOMENT as good as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st - Turriga | 2nd - Moonlit Weekend | 3rd - Accelerina |
#4 TURRIGA is a bit better bred for the brown than the green, so right off the bat, you can feel free to jack up those two turf figs accordingly. Five returnees from the last returned to ring up a cumulative 5:1-2-1 record ( from three sui generis races ), and there is some decent pedigree for this in the family tree. The paternal grandfather was a Grade 2 winner who went 13:4-5-1 on the sandy stuff ( 424K ), the paternal granddam was a multiple stakes placed gal who went 12:2-3-1 on the main ( 126G ), and the maternal grandsire was Tiznow, who of course, needs no introduction. #9 MOONLIT WEEKEND was a mite tardy to the party when getting her working papers a month ago, and has blinkers added after splitting the field that day. We wouldn't be surprised to see a move forward here, but will keep beneath, as Katie has been chilly since The Spa. #7 ACCELERINA owns a pair of honest running lines on today's surface and must be included.
Aqueduct 3-17 ( $10.20 ) Beatable Favorites ( N/A ) Favorite's Win % 6-16 ( 37.5% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
