1/6 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Pair of winners on a chalk laden day yesterday, as faves are clicking at a 48% win rate thus far,

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#1 FABULOUS FOX is a "Double Beyer Fig" play, in such that both of the numbers she's posted to date supersede anything that anyone in this race has put up -- or we feel will be able to post. Grey gal gets the wonder drug for the first time, but obviously will need to be smartly spotted from today's inside placement. #5 CITY BLOCKS is showing a bit of a "Z" pattern from that New Year's Eve deal, as she lost 1 3/4 lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining twice that amount from there to the line. May continue to improve in today's second off the bench affair. #6 DELL ARTE hasn't displayed much in the mornings, but draws ideally and gets in with a feather. 

#4 FLASHY ALEX displayed little in his first start off of nearly a full calendar sabbatical, and as a matter of fact, has only bested two over his last quartet. There's some good news tho, as he's one of five right here, totes the lightest impost of his career, and 8% Randi is 3 for 15 with NY based second off the layoff dirt stock at this level who missed the $ 1-39 days in the rear ( $20, $8 & $40 ), and there's a sub cat of 2-6 right here. #3 YOUBETTERBEJOKING placed in this race 20 days ago, and we see no reason another solid effort isn't feasible. #6 SCOTTO hasn't hit the board in more than two years, but Jackie always tries hard for the minor spoils, and may spice things up beneath. 

#3 SWEET SODDY J made every call a winning one in a similar placement down in Maryland last time out, and well traveled sort ( who's shown his muzzle at seven different venues from eight starts to date ) just may do the same if left to his own devices early on. #4 EL GRANDE O has hit the board in 7 of 8 heats thus far ( with the lone blemish occurring in a G1 ), and aside from that flop, is two fer two beneath the seagulls. Logical. #1 DRUM ROLL PLEASE drops in class and cuts back while sliding in four slots off an honest 8-1 showing, and found the line first in his only local start over a glib surface. 

#1 EGYPT has been a completely different animal since returning off an eight month break in the action, outrunning his parimutual offering with two 2nd place finishes. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, DePaz is DeMan when it comes to his maiden special weight dirt dashers who hit the board 17-43 days in the rear @ 32-1 or less ( getting the big "L" ), and those winners came back $6, $13, $4 & $3. #6 LUCENCY has yet to miss a superfecta finish, and is in the 3rd off the L/O portion of his form cycle today, while drawing the outside for the 1st time. #5 VENGE has shown improved speed in the last pair and can land a share.   NOTE: AS OF 10:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#2 DIANNESRETIRING displayed little in the turf comebacker, but hung up an adjusted 51.1 in her sole start on the sand, and $5,000 homebred is smartly dropped in class today's 2nd off the bench jamboree. Mild choice. #1 BRACA showed precipitous improvement 2nd time out, and what we like is that there were no "angles" attached to it, which tells us that this miss is figuring things out on her own. #4 ROB THE BANK gets an "Around the World" treatment today -- First time blinkers, first time lasix, and takes the biggest drop in the game while having received the unkindest cut of all. Would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression here. 

We don't have the best of reads on this deal, so tread lightly.  #5 FLIP'S DREAM finished in the back half of the pack at 5/2 when getting beaten up a bit at the onset of his debut, but has worked well since, and deserves a chance to make amends. Meeeeek selection. #1 FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE outran his odds when completing the triple at 15-1 in his first start for the new barn, and is sensible off that effort. #6 PASCHAL MOON has a couple'a decent adjusted figs on the main, and should be in the thick of things. 

#7 HIGH OAK will take some pounding at the windows despite not having found the winner's circle in nearly 2 1/2 years, but it's hard to ignore the back class, as well as the decent collection of Beyer Speed Figures, no ?  From a trainer stat perspective, Mott is a tight 3 of 5 with Aqueduct male dirt entrants at this level at 3-1 or beneath, and those who won, paid $7 x 2 & $3. #3 SET SAIL ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) posted an adjusted 86 the only time he was in a 2nd off the layoff situation, and as he's been dead last in both wet track tries, it would behoove you to toss this one into the mix. #4 BEACHWALKER comes in today off of back to back career best #'s, and has been a part of the super in four of five 3rd off the respite races. 

#5 COMPARATIVE has won three of her last four ( one of 'em right here ), and is backed by a by a 9:6-1-1 trainer stat which has this clan at just that when stretching out their ungraded dirt equines off breaks of 34 to 48 days ( beneath the 9-1 watermark ). The winners in that study came back $7, $2, $3 x 3 & $18, and we'll give this one a tepid nod in a feature with no first draft tosses. #3 RAYYA VALENTINE was a going away winner in her most recent, and sheds three lb.'s off that tally. #1 KNOW IT ALL AUDREY has a sweet declining record at The Big A ( 17:7-5-1 ), and is a sensational 5:4-0-1 when breaking from the innermost two slots. 

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #6 MR PHIL is halved in price while getting blinkers for the first time in this, his 41st call to the post, and historically, this bay gelding has done his finest work in Queens. From a trainer statistic POV, Rudy Rod is a lovely 7 for 15 with male dirt starters over this oval at 17-1 or <, who missed the board 48-50 days back at this level ( positive R.O.I. ). We emphasized "missed", because he's just 1 for 4 with those who were in the money in that study. No worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there. #1 MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) is quite the old warhorse who's always had a penchant for finding the line, and especially at today's distance of ground. #4 HEIR PORT finds himself at his lowest level yet.  NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Aqueduct 5-25 ( $22.30 ) Beatable Favorites ( N/A ) Favorite's Win % 12-25 ( 48% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout