Just a couple of winners yesterday, as chalk continues to stream in.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #1 Crimson Light Race 7 - Jacobsen entry NOTE: DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THERE ARE NO BEATABLE FAVORITES TODAY
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st - Wake Up Lauren | 2nd - Six Pack Senorita | 3rd - Unheard |
#3 WAKE UP LAUREN has been freshened up a bit since besting only uno at 50-1 in early November, and returns taking the biggest drop in the biz for a barn that's won both times they've had a runner without lasix off breaks of 51-77 days ( $5 & $23 ). Timid choice in an opener with no first draft tosses. #6 SIX PACK SENORITA displayed some early hoof last out, and like so many new three year olds, is now in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. #7 UNHEARD has been away since Hector was a pup, but takes the plunge for a new barn, while also getting the "Big L". There's a nicely hidden bullet for today's comebacker, and of course, we like the draw. NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st - Lemon Taffy | 2nd - Shasi | 3rd - Afilada |
#3 LEMON TAFFY has only bested 15 in her last 15 calls to the post, but 6% shotcaller is a crisp three of seven with sand stock off absences of 7-12 days, and the winners for that survey came back an honest $45, $5 & $7. Price play in an open event. #1 SHASI was a well beaten but gamely runner up in this race two fortnights back, and slides in two slots off that effort. Logical. #4 AFILADA is a nibbler by rote, but completed the triple the only time she was in a third off the layoff situation, and best work has occurred at today's distance of ground. NOTE: AS OF 11:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-6-4.
| Race 3 | 1st - Suspended Campaign | 2nd - Darn That Song | 3rd - Towering Gaze |
#4 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN has been quite disappointing over her last pair, but drops to never seen depths this afternoon, and has always had a fondness for this oval. Will likely take some pounding at the windows, but it would behoove you to take a long look during the warmup. #1 DARN THAT SONG outran her odds in a big time way when closing out the triple at 59-1 the only time she returned off a sabbatical. Note the other 3rd place finish the only other time she had an inside placement. After going back to back, #3 TOWERNING GAZE can be forgiven the most recent disappointment, as he smacked into the starting apparatus at the onset, and would be no surprise.
| Race 4 | 1st - Profitability | 2nd - Uptomykneesinit | 3rd - Shore Time |
#2 PROFITABILITY bested half the field when placed in an ambitious spot last month, but lost by merely 5+ lengths, and gets some improvement in the stirrups this afternoon, while getting the miracle drug and eye cups. Solid alternative to the one directly inside of him. #3 UPTOMYKNEESINIT faded in the stretch when getting his working papers three dozen days ago, and is another having the hood slapped on. Katie been quite chilly since the end of Toga, so we'll keep beneath. #7 SHORE TIME goes from a bug to a vet, and his best effort yet came over a quick track, so we'll chunk in. BEATABLE FAVORITE: With just moderate pedigree, we're not quite sure why #1 CRIMSON LIGHT is 8-5 ( especially breaking from the wood ), so we'll side against.
| Race 5 | 1st - Chick | 2nd - Starry Midnight | 3rd - Bon Adieu |
#3 REIGNING CHICK put forth an honest showing in a nearly identical placement 23 days in the rear, and slides in seven posts off of that deal. Horse for the course rates a mild edge in a heat with just one dismissed at first glance. #2 STARRY MIDNIGHT enters today off of back to back career best figs, and cuts back fro two turns to one for today's 3rd start off the pine. Gal is one of two when going one turn on a local glib strip ( outside of stakes company ), and looms a mainger danger. #5 BON ADIEU has gone coast to coast in two of her last three on a track labeled "FST", and posted an adj. 71.1 the only time she was in a 3rd off the L/O spot. NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1/1A WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st - Ride On Call | 2nd - Le Bar | 3rd - Play |
#6 RIDE ON CALL set some snappy ear;y splits before playing the fade when debuting on the polytrack down in Hallandale Beach, but the # came back decent enough, and as this one is better bred for the main, right off the bat, we can forsee some improvement. From a DRF Formulator point of view, T.P. wipes the competition clean with Queens based male second time dirt starters at this level ( ridden by this pilot ), as he's a near perfecto 7 of 8 in that regards ( 8-1 or undah ). #4 LE BAR ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) has been beset by back to back layoff lines since beginning his working life, but one of those Beyers was solid, and this one can be a threat if sound and fully cranked up. #1 PLAY has blinks added after a somewhat troubled, but honest enough bow, and sheds 80 ounces off that effort.
| Race 7 | 1st - Ryan's Cat | 2nd - Bring Me a Check | 3rd - Dot's Dollar |
#7 RYAN'S CAT has outrun his odds in completing the triple over the last duet, and the lone returnee from that deal returned victorious, replicating the prior Beyer. Meek selection in a race that's difficult ti hug. #5 BRING ME A CHECK hasn't been in action in about 3 1/2 months, but is a poyfect two fer two in dirt starts off a hibernation, and chestnut chap must be left in the hopper. #2 DOT'S DOLLAR is four of seven at The Big A, two of two at the dist., and what the hell's wrong with that ? BEATABLE FAVORITE: Jacobsen entry
| Race 8 | 1st - Good Skate | 2nd - Montauk Point | 3rd -Olympic Dreams |
#3 GOOD SKATE was eased in the most recent, but had a 5:2-3-0 skein going two turns just before that, and it's encouraging to see Franco stick around, isn't it ? Recognize that this fella owns a 14:4-6-1 mark at AQU, which stands out favorably against the 10:0-2-1 record otherwise. #8 MONTAUK POINT is made available for purchase for the first time by today's new shotcaller, and although he may need one, we'll incorporate because of the 5:1-1-1 local record. #5 OLYMPIC DREAMS was a convincing $11 victor the only time he was in a 3rd off the bench spot, and digs the trip & strip.
| Race 9 | 1st - Practical Miss | 2nd - Our Reward | 3rd - Mo Damorninggrouch |
#9 PRACTICAL MISS has blinkers removed for today's 3rd start off the respite, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman who's done some nice work for this clan. Should be able to sit a nice, stalking trip from today's outside post position, and good guy Duggan on a tight 4 for 6 run with dirt entrants off breaks of 16-47 days beneath the 5-1 watermark. #4 OUR REWARD hasn't faced the starter in two full calendars, but has been performing admirably in the mornings for the comebacker, and Bruce Brown ( 8% day to day ) is two of six with Aqu. based maiden claiming dirt horsies ( getting lasix ) off L/O's of > 50 days ( $8 & $9 ). #4 MO DAMORNINGGROUCH has enough speed to grab a slice.
Aqueduct 7-34 ( $32.90 ) Beatable Favorites ( N/A ) Favorite's Win % 15-34 ( 44.1% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
