A $26 winner on a mess of a day here Sunday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #2 Silver Fist
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Memphis | 2nd -Collect From Ike | 3rd -South Street |
#3 MEMPHIS has NOT lived up to his expectations by any stretch of the imagination, but only lost by two last out, despite being brought ten wide ( NURSE !! ). New bossman is a crisp 8:3-2-2-1 with locally based mid level dirt stock who were ITM in a race claimed from < two fortnights back ( 10-1 or beneath ). The winners in that study paid $14, $10 & $8, and you can feel free to upgrade the last should today's track come up fast. #6 COLLECT FROM IKE hasn't shown much over the last pair, but picks up a jock that's been doing well of late, and could jazz things up a bit. #2 SOUTH STREET is in excellent form these days and makes all kinds of sense.
| Race 2 | 1st -Cupids Girl | 2nd -Diamond Collector | 3rd -Jackson Avenue |
#5 CUPIDS GIRL has been freshened up a bit since the claim & flop, and new outfit has won with half of their six dirt starters off absences of 51-53 days ( 14-1 or less ), with healthy mutuels of $17, $13 & $7. Recognize today's drop and first time blinker addition. #3 DIAMOND COLLECTOR has been out of form since late October, but barn is two of four with first off the claim runners of this ilk who missed the baccala 14-50 days back ( $5 & $8 ). Best work has come right here, and we'll chunk in. #6 JACKSON AVENUE can be forgiven the last, as she's notoriously lousy over a wet track, and is now made available for purchase for the first time over a glib surface. NOTE: AS OF 5:21 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 3 | 1st -Diva Banker | 2nd -Meraviglioso | 3rd -Jackie the Joker |
#1 DIVA BANKER has partaken in the exacta about half the time at today's distance of ground, and Rudy Rod is a tight three of four w/ Aqueduct based dirt stock who crashed the fiesta less than 11 days back ( $7, $9 & $15 ). Drawbacks are the weak bug & poor mark right here, but we'll give this one a tepid nod, nonetheless. #2 MERAVIGLIOSO has been a part of the superfecta in 9 of his last 10 when up for grabs, and owns a fair mark @ the trip. #6 JACKIE THE JOKER is 4:1-1-0 in Ozone Park and can land a share. Due to a gate scratch, the #4 will be our 3rd selection.
| Race 4 | 1st -Mended We Stand | 2nd -Lincolnville Beach | 3rd -Fuligni |
#6 MENDED WE STAND has fared quite admirably since transitioning back to the main, and four year old is conditioned by a 14% outfit who more than doubles that rate ( 3-10 ), with female dirt dashers at today's level off L/O's of 45 days or lowah ( 26-1 or less ). The victors in that sampling came back $33, $5, $6, and we always like to see the jock coming in for the ride. #5 LINCOLNVILLE BEACH gets a positive upgrade after the most recent placing, and the two who surrounded her that day found the line first when next in action, improving by an avg. of 10.5 pts. per. #4 FULIGNI has done her best work when carrying 118 of less, and picks up a decent bug for today's return. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SILVER FIST
| Race 5 | 1st -Aula | 2nd -Shpilkes | 3rd -Amedeus Music |
#5 AULA has won her last two over a strip labeled "FST", and aside from an honest showing the only time he went from two turns to one, is backed by a nice trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, Maker is three fer six with allowance sand sprinters right here who won 21-50 days in the past & are beneath the 28-1 watermark ( $5 & $9 x 2 ). #8 SHPILKES has been MIA since going back to back at Philadelphia Park in the fall, and being this lightly raced 6YO is 2:1-0-1 off the pine, we have no qualms in including. #4 AMEDEUS MUSIC is 3:1-0-0-1 in 2nd off the layoff jamborees, and in non overlapping races, owns a 3:1-1-0 ledger with today's jock astride. NOTE: AS OF 5:25 P.M. TUESDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Misintention | 2nd -Nyxed | 3rd -La Girvina |
#1 MISINTENTION appears to be figuring things out a bit, and Mott ( 16% on the norm ), is 4-13 with AQU female maiden special weight dirt sprinters ( getting the wonder drug ), off breaks of less than 51 days. Slight margin. #2 NYXED was a dead game runner up in a near identical spot five weeks back, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #8 LA GIRVINA has improved with each passing start, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Blinks are now added for today's 2nd start off the respite, and of course, we dig the draw.
| Race 7 | 1st -Peak of Chic | 2nd -Bank On Anna | 3rd -Desert Dalliance |
#4 PEAK OF CHIC is an absolute win machine, as the 21:11-4-2 boxscore belies, and that includes a recent streak of 12:9-3-0 on a glib surface. Threat to go all the way once again. #5 BANK ON ANNA has a touch of back class, and we love the 8:3-1-1 mark at today's trip. #3 DESERT DALLIANCE likes the local seagulls and is as good as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 5:29 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 8 | 1st -No Layups | 2nd -Needed | 3rd -Khali's Storm |
#1 NO LAYUPS didn't show a whole heck of a lot when trying the brown stuff for the first time, but in all fairness, she got smacked around a bit at the onset that day, and now has "The Big L" administered for the 1st time. From a trainer stat aspect, Brown is a fat 7:5-1-0-1 with Aqu. based mdclm. dirt entrants off absences of lower than 51 days ( $2.93 return on investment ). #12 NEEDED showed stark improvement from her first stand start to the followup, and drops a peg while picking up a stronger finisher. #3 KHALI'S STORM could jazz things up a touch in today's 2nd start off the break.
Aqueduct 8-43 ( $59.30 ) Beatable Favorites ( N/A ) Favorite's Win % 18-43 ( 41.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
