Nice day for us here yesterday with a profitable three bagger ( $13, $8 & $7 ), a $31 cold Double, and two successful Beatable Favorites.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #1 Creation of Adam
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Grand Again | 2nd -Citizen Mack | 3rd -Vaunted |
#3 GRAND AGAIN appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and is a threat to go all the way in today's 3rd off the layoff deal. #4 CITIZEN MACK showed little in the comebacker, but drops a few pegs this afternoon, and gets some improvement in the stirrups. #6 VAUNTED is another who finds himself at an all time low, and posted an adjusted 70.1 the only time he broke from the outside. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 CREATION OF ADAM fills the bill, as Papa Englehart is 0-10 with all relevant categories.
| Race 2 | 1st -Mitole Magic | 2nd -Dorothy's Dreams | 3rd -Jezebel |
#5 MITOLE MAGIC burned some bread down in Hallandale Beach a month ago, and now has blinkers & Lasix for today's dirt debut. In regards to the latter, Brown has won all four times having done that to his dirt dashers of this sort off breaks of 45 days or less ( $3, $4, $9 & $8 ). #6 DOROTHY'S DREAMS ( who should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there ) has hit the board in each of his sand sprints, and is another who is suddenly in need of the miracle drug. #3 JEZEBEL has a best of 118 bullet gate move on the docket for today's lid lifter, and that's something which ALWAYS merits inclusion. NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Pretty Xtreme | 2nd -Halo City | 3rd -Run Devil |
We're fixin' to blast off with the ol' 3-2-1 triple here... #3 PRETTI EXTREME was a gamely runner up behind a next out victress around Turkey Time, , and drops a tad off that placing, while getting some big time improvement up top. Sweet "declining" mark of 12:4-2-1 adds to the allure. #2 HALO CITY came along decently to snag 20% of the pot when tangling with similar type a week and a half back, and her 18:4-4-4 local ledger stands out against the 22:0-6-5 mark otherwise. #1 RUN DEVIL has never missed the board here, and will be brought over by Rudy Rod, who's a whopping 9 for 17 with locally based mid level dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 less than 18 days back ( 8-1 or < ), with an ROI of $4.86 in that regards. NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Pharoah's Heart | 2nd -Coppa Girl | 3rd -Whistler's Style |
#6 PHAROAH'S HEART has been in absentia for more than half'a calendar, but is 4:1-1-1 after a sabbatical, digs the trip, and is up for grabs for the first time. We'd like to get a bit more than 5-2 however. Mixed signals. #3 COPPA GIRL has closed out the exacta in her last pair, but is winless over a glib surface, so we'll keep beneath. #1 WHISTLER'S STYLE has won three of her last seven, and we actually consider today a tiny drop off the recent tally, so will obviously include.
| Race 5 | 1st -Night Effect | 2nd -Mudville Nine | 3rd -Uncle Water Flow |
#3 NIGHT EFFECT has been away since early November, but hung up an adj, 79.6 the only time he came back after a break in the action, plummets in class after the $50,000 claim, and barn is 3 of 9 with freshly purchased mid level dirt stock off L/O's of 51-93 days going short on the sand ( ridden by today's pilot ). Take a looooong look in the paddock. #5 MUDVILLE NINE has never been entered this cheaply and could perk up. #4 UNCLE WATER FLOW drops a few pounds, and completed the triple the last time he went from two turns to one.
| Race 6 | 1st -Carol T | 2nd -Book of Wisdom | 3rd -Troubled Luck |
#3 CAROL T showed zippo in the comebacker, and loses blinkers for today's 2nd start off the L/O. There's an upgrade in the jockey dept. today, and rates a chance if able to get back to either of the prior fast track efforts. #2 BOOK OF WISDOM tossed in a true clunker in the Stallion Series event, but was doing some good things prior to that, and should be in the thick of things. #8 TROUBLED LUCK is as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 7 | 1st -Reserve Currency | 2nd -Luni Sima | 3rd -Ocean's Reserve |
#2 RESERVE CURRENCY hasn't faced the starter since Toga time, and after finishing in the back half of the pack over his last pair, has since received the unkindest cut of all. Chestnut chap is one of three when returning off an absence on a fast track, and we'll make him a meeeeeeeek selection. #3 LUNI SIMA has an honest mark in Ozone Park, and is a neck shy of being two for two in second off the shelf engagements on a track labeled FST. Eligible to surprise. #8 OCEAN'S RESERVE is 8:3-3-2 at this dx., and what the hell's wrong with that ?
| Race 8 | 1st -Tricky Temper | 2nd -Sweet Brown Sugar | 3rd -My Mane Squeeze |
#3 TRICKY TEMPER has gone 59-60-64-73 in her quartet of dirt deals to date, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that area. Gal digs it here, and Franco a capable replacement for Irad. #1 SWEET BROWN SUGAR has made every call a winning one in both starts at The Lakes, and we have no qualms in using an undefeated animal at 6-1. #6 MY MANE SQUEEZE disappeared off the worktab for 27 days after the local stakes win, but is an obvious factor if fully cranked up.
| Race 9 | 1st -Drinking Solo | 2nd -A Knight's Courage | 3rd -Arco Augusta |
This listed troika should suffice for all our rolling action. #6 DRINKING SOLO got smacked around a bit at the onset last out, and didn't show much afterwards. Maybe it was the goo -- maybe not -- but the penultimate try was just fine, and the wonder drug is now a part of the equation. #4 A KNIGHT'S COURAGE showed his best speed ever in the most recent, and Donk seems to have rebounded off a poor fall meet. #5 ARCO AUGUSTA put forth a decent effort when closing out the super @ 12-1 on Dec. 29th, and may last for a share.
Aqueduct 12-68 ( $95.50 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-4 ) Favorite's Win % 25-67 ( 37.3% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
