1/18 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Nice day for us here Sunday, with the following:

--Four winners of $18, $7, & $4 x 2 

--A $1,526 Rolling Pick Five

--Three Rolling Doubles of $99, $22, $26, and a cold one for $21

--A $108 Exacta Box

--Three Rolling Pick Threes of $215, $100 & $52

--A $295 Triple Box

--Yet another successful "Beatable Favorite".

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

We start out the week with three decent sets of DRF Formulator statistics, so without further "to do", let's get right to 'em.  #3 CALL BOB disappeared off the worktab for nine months off the inauspicious debut, but showed some decent early hoof in the comebacker before playing the fade. 16% shotcaller is two of three with maiden claiming sprinters transitioning from poly to dirt off breaks of seven weeks or less ( getting lasix. Those winners came back $9 & $7, and there's another stat in play as well. Barn is two of four when calling upon this jock with those off L/O's of 63 days or <, and those victors paid $7 & $8 ( with none of those races overlapping. Factor in that this one is substantially better bred for the brown than the green, and you have the looks of a live longshot. #1 INDEPENDENT PAUL hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but De PAz is De Man with 2nd time male dirt starters at this level ( getting juice ), off breaks of 57 days or greater. HE's 4 fer 7 w/ that sort, and the mutuels were $11, $8, $16 & $9. #4 FIRST SONS completes out troika of selections who collectively have only best one in four starts ( must be a first for us ), based on Rudy Rod having won with all three of his second timers who missed the baccala at this level 37-46 days in the past right here. Those dirt dashers came back $12, $13 & $9, and blinkers are now a part of the mix.  NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.  ( AS OF 12:12, THERE ARE NO CHANGES HERE )

#4 MYTOWN MYRULES has done nothing to get the pulse racing since April, but has never been entered this cheaply, and goes one turn over a fast track for the first time. Blinks are now a part of of the package, as barn goes to one of their main pilot. Most mild of selections in a race with no first draft tosses. #3 GHOSTLY GIRL has been a part of the superfecta in both two turns to one dances, and drops in class today. #7 LADY BANKER takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged on New Year's Eve, but found the line first the only time she was last to load and can land a share.   NOTE: AS OF 12:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

After improving over his first three North American starts, #3 BORLETTI (IRE) regressed after the maiden breaker, but that's never an easy spot, and appears properly placed today while barn goes to there go-to rider. #2 THREE ZERO has a couple of decent running lines over his last threesome, and should be left in the hopper. #6 GUN MAESTRO was fanned seven wide in his first start off the claim by Jimmy Ferraro, but still ended up completing the super, and note the best of 26 bullet breeze since then. 

#6 ALLEY'S SONG has shown zilch since procuring the sheepskin on the 1st of October, so this cheaply bred critter now has the "For Sale" sticker attached to her tush for the first time, while also being in receipt of the miracle drug. You actually may get a touch of value with this high % outfit. #7 TAVIN has yet to finish out of the super, and got her Polaroid taken the only time she was made available for purchase. #4 CLASSIC DIVA broke through the gate when tangoing with victresses for the first time, and while that's usually a death knell, she showed some decent early dash, and is now in receipt of eye cups and "The Big L". 

#6 COLLECT THE DATA has shown diddly poo in both starts to date, but the white flag is now run up on this $130,000 purchase, and Lasix is now also in the equation. From a trainer stat aspect, Brown is a whopping 8 of 13 when giving his dirt equines this kind of drop off an absence of 21-46 days ( getting the juice ), and not only is there a positive ROI in that regards, but also a 3 for 3 sub cat in Queens. #3 FIND YOUR JOY takes the biggest drop in the biz and as so many, is now in need of the "anti bleeding drug". #7 CALL HER BLUFF is another plunging and as she always gives a good account of himself, we have no issues with those taking a favorable view. 

These three and no more for all our rolling bets.  #1 FIRST DEPUTY sure is a game ol' sort, ain't he ? Seven year old ridgling ( ouch ) makes his 48th afternoon trek to the frontside, and aside from coming in off a sharp placing, totes along a nifty 14:3-4-1 record locally. From a Formulator point of view, Baby Englehart owns a nice 16:6-3-2-2 ledger with AQU dirt horsies at this level who were 1-2-3 less than two dozen days back @ 8-1 or beneath ( $4.15 return on investment ). #2 COLONEL VARGO was ghastly at Philadelphia Park, but is undefeated here, and can make amends. #9 F F ROCKET has won two of his last three over a glib surface, and could be a factor if sound and fully cranked up. 

#7 GENERAL BANKER sure has outperformed his $7,500 breeding price, hasn't he ? $512,943 earner has done quite well for Ferraro, but Cancel ( Sighhhhhh.... ) had him too close to the pace that day, and we're hoping for a vastly improved ride this afternoon. As for the above shotcaller, he's on a crisp 6 for 11 run with Aqu. based optional sand stock beneath the 17-1 watermark ( 38 days or undah ), while getting Lasix. The payoffs for that study were a more than healthy $28, $21, $31, $9 & $5 x 2, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this one get back on track. #8 DON'T LOSE CRUZ has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but was victorious the only time he loaded last, and has plenty of experience here. #5 AMUNDSON is 5 of 13 in this zip code, and what the gosh darn is wrong with that?

#13 SAINT GAUDENS ( a commune in France https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint-Gaudens,_Haute-Garonne ) gets her working papers this afternoon, and aside from owning a 401 Tommy and drawing ideally, is backed by a stat which has this clan clicking at a 12:6-3-0-1 rate with those fitting ALL this exact criteria ( $3.25 R.O.I. ). #2 SORORITY PRANK was a dead game & well clear runner up when having blinkers affixed for the first time, and even if you feel he's eligible to regress off of that, perhaps getting the big "L" for the first time cancels that out. #4 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS will be a deserving favorite here, and while the race goes directly through him, we feel he may have outran his pedigree a bit that day, so will keep beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A FEW KEY LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-9-5.

Aqueduct 16-77 ( $147.50 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 29-77 ( 37.7% )( As of Thursday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout