Profitable two bagger for us here yesterday ( $8 & $9 ), along with a cold $79 Triple, and a cold $46 Exacta.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #2 Sue Ellen Mishkin ( THERE IS NO BEATABLE FAVORITE DUE TO TWO VERY LATE SCRATCHES )
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Weather Delay | 2nd -Just Music | 3rd -Pin Up Betty |
We'll blast off with the 3-2-1 tri in today's opener. #3 WEATHER DELAY starts things out today with a healthy Tomlinson ( 387 ), and expensive purchase price ( half'a mil ), a decent gate move outta the gate ( 48 & 4 ), and a strong trainer/jockey combo. No siblings to note, but of the five members of the family tree, FOUR won at first asking, while the other placed, and scored 2nd time out. Watch out, suckahs ! #2 JUST MUSIC overcame an awkward onset to finish an honest and well clear runner up at this trip last time out, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all her efforts. Lasix now a part of the makeup, as this one takes the mandatory hike in class. #1 PIN UP BETTY has hit the board in three of her last four and makes all kinds of sense.
| Race 2 | 1st -Everlys Girl | 2nd -I'm Buzzy | 3rd -Killy Start |
#5 EVERLYS GIRL comes in off a wire job in the slop ( a surface she is NOT well bred for, which makes it all the more impressive ), and that brought her mark at the trip to a snazzy 10:3-2-4, which stands out favorably against her 11:0-1-3 ledger at other distances of ground. Threat once again, despite moving up the ladder. #4 I'M BUZZY is another moving up off the win/snag, & it's hard to look past that 4 for 9 boxscore at the dx., no ? #1 KILLY START is 3:1-0-1-1 when first to load, and can grab a piece. NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Handle On You | 2nd -Love Thyself | 3rd -Song of Solomini |
#5 HANDLE ON YOU has been gross over the last triad, but goes over a fast track for just the second time, and drops a peg. Price play. #7 LOVE THYSELF has yet to finish in the front half of the pack, but like so many new three year olds, is now getting the miracle drug, and that could make a a big difference in the weakest race they run on the grounds. #2 SONG OF SOLOMINI nearly blew up the tote board at 61-1 when returning from a bit of a freshening, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding.
| Race 4 | 1st -Unicorn Cake | 2nd -Scarlet's Dream | 3rd -Baroness Bourbon |
This threesome should suffice for all our rolling action. #6 UNICORN CAKE may be on point today in receiving the "Big L" for the 1st time, while also being made available for purchase as well. J/T combination fare better together than apart, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #4 SCARLET'S DREAM has really figured things out of late, and we like when a trainer isn't "ascared" to make an equipment/medication change off a winning effort, and you see that eye cups and the wonder drug are now a part of the makeup. Could be sitting on another goodie. #5 BARONESS BOURBON ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is a mite light from a speed figure aspect, but bested the boys in procuring the sheepskin, and we'll chunk in for her primary spin over a glib oval.
| Race 5 | 1st -Lotsa Trouble | 2nd -Doc Sullivan | 3rd -King Freud |
#5 LOTSA TROUBLE had anything but when going pillar to post in picking up the diploma right here on the 10th of December, and we're betting that the result was likely not an aberration. From a DRF Formulator point of view, The Toddster is 5:3-2-0 with optional dirt dashers off breaks of 21-49 days, and the repeat is well within reach. #1 DOC SULLIVAN showed marked improvement when victorious second time out, and has the big "L" added off of that win. Recent breeze positively pops off the page, but closer will need to navigate a nice trip from today's inside slot. #3 KING FREUD as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 6 | 1st -Hypnocurrency | 2nd -Perpetual Praise | 3rd -Dance With Me Babe |
#1 HYPNOCURRENCY hasn't faced the starter in 2/3rd's of a year, but gets a trainer upgrade since last in action, and h has done quite well with those returning from elongated absences. As there was a voided claim back in May, it would behoove you to take a looksie during the warmups, but we'll give her a shot at a good number. #5 PERPETUAL PRAISE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, and while owning a decent resume', has, in fact, two consecutive voided claims. Mixed signals. #8 DANCE WITH ME BABE won her only start on a track labeled FST, and in a grouping like this, that's enough reason to lob in.
| Race 7 | 1st -Tempermental | 2nd -Midtown Lights | 3rd -Lady Mine |
#3 TEMPERMANTAL is a fairly consistent sort who's partaken of the superfecta in 11 of her last 12 on the main, and this chestnut lady has always fared quite well beneath the seagulls. New jock came up here from Oldsmar, and will need to establish himself in New York once again, so you'd think he'd be trying hard here. #7 MIDTOWN LIGHTS has been in absentia since mid June, but placed in her only start off the pine, and it's difficult to ignore the 5:2-2-1 local ledger. #1 LADY MINE shoots for the abbreviated grand salami this afternoon and is hard to dismiss. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN NOTE: DUE TO TWO VERY LATE SCRATCHES, THE #8 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE AND THERE IS NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.
| Race 8 | 1st -Belle of the Ball | 2nd -Nobilis | 3rd -Growth Mindset |
#4 BELLE OF THE BALL has "show-itis" on the dirt, as this miss has completed the triple in all five starts on the brown stuff. That being said, this lightly raced 5YO is supported by a nice trainer stat, as this clan is 4 of 6 with second off the snag mdclm. dirt entrants right here, who crashed the party 20-50 days in the rear ( $4, $7, $6 & $10 ). #8 NOBILIS drops to an all time low, and draws the outside for the first time. #7 GROWTH MINDSET has been transferred to a more prolific outfit since last getting suited up, and is eligible to show improvement.
Aqueduct 18-85 ( $145.50 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 32-85 ( 37.7% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
