Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #4 You're Forever Race 9 - #5 Ghostbustin
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Army of Thoughts | 2nd -My Gorgeous | 3rd -Practical Miss |
#4 ARMY OF THOUGHTS had front wraps added after a 16-1 placing behind a next out victress ( hmmmm.... ), so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. That being said, she totes the lightest impost of her career, and perhaps she simply didn't appreciate the sloppy going last out. Stock goes up if the bandages are removed. #6 MY GORGEOUS hasn't faced the starter since the end of April, but posted an adjusted 40.2 in the lone try off a break ( which fits here ), and gal draws the outside for the 1st time. #3 PRACTICAL MISS was a dead game and well clear runner up in similar spot, and makes all kinds of sense once again. NOTE: AS OF 4:35 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 2 | 1st -Hatch | 2nd -Hot Rod Rumble | 3rd -Provision |
#3 HATCH paid instant dividends after being snagged by Jimmy Ferraro around Turkey time, but displayed little when taking the mandatory hike in class 26 days later. Grey gelding had a legit excuse that afternoon, as he was picking up a whopping ten pounds off the nose victory, and rates a chance to make amends in being reunited w/ Rivera. #2 HOT ROD RUMBLE owns a win & a third from as many 2nd off the bench engagements, and lightly raced 5YO ( who finds himself at his lowest level to date ) has done his best work beneath the seagulls. #6 PROVISION is another who's never seen these depths, and is one of three when last to load.
| Race 3 | 1st -Profitability | 2nd -Collected Special | 3rd -In a Minute |
#4 PROFITABILITY is a cheaply bred homebred who's already earned back a bit more than the $2,500 stud fee ( less expenses, of course ), and after playing the fade late in the game vs. special weight competition, is smartly spotted in for 40 today. When it comes to his maiden claiming sand stock getting juice off breaks of < two dozen days ( 9-1 or beneath ), Weaver is a dreamy 7 of 12, with a fat ROI of $4.18. Race goes through this one. #7 COLLECTED SPECIAL hasn't been in action since early November, but hung up an adj. 67 in his sole start off a L/O ( sans Lasix ), and that heat was his only one when beginning from an outermost slot. #1 IN A MINUTE gets an around the world treatment this afternoon: First time wonder drug, loses the eye cups, and is now running sans tes-tee-klees. Would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression in here.
| Race 4 | 1st -Majestic Frontier | 2nd -Daddy Knows | 3rd -Digital |
#2 MAJESTIC FRONTIER has won three of his last six after losing 15 straight, and although he's a notorious nibbler at this dist. ( 7:0-5-1 ), is backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days , Dally ( 11% on the norm ) is three fer four with mid level dirt runners off sabbaticals of 53-117 days, and those winners came back a decent $19 x 2 & $3. #5 DADDY KNOWS has been ITM in four of five 3rd off the break jammies, and game eight year old has done quite well here over the years. #4 DIGITAL is 5:1-1-2 when cutting back from two turns to one, and after being kept in jail since the Dec. 9th Turfway Park claim, is entered for 62.5% of that price this afternoon; take a gander during the warmups.
| Race 5 | 1st -Wake Up Lauren | 2nd -By the Glass | 3rd -Next On Stage |
#6 WAKE UP LAUREN has been in absentia for more than 2 1/2 months, and after besting but one in two starts to date, now takes the biggest drop in the game. When it comes to his dirt entrants coming back after L/O's of 51-107 days -- without the "Big L" -- this outfit ( who's been "miraculous" at the meet ) is 5:3-0-1-1, with returns of $6, $7 & $22. #1 BY THE GLASS ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) has blinks slapped on for the first time, and could perk up in today's 2nd time over a glib surface. #5 NEXT ON STAGE has yet to miss a superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat ? BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 YOU'RE FOREVER fills the bill, as Falcone is 0-9 with all applicable categories.
| Race 6 | 1st -Blake B. | 2nd -Grumps Little Tots | 3rd -Co Conspirator |
#7 BLAKE B. has been kept in prison since the December 15th claim, and drops back down to to the level from the tally just before that, while carrying the lightest weight of his career. Meekest of choices in a deal with but one first draft tossout. #1 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS is displaying a bit of a "Z" pattern from the most recent, ( losing three lengths from the quarter to the top of the stretch before gaining 2 1/2 of that from there to the line ) and owns a nice 9:2-3-1-2 record from there to the finish line. May be coming late. #8 CO CONSPIRATOR has yet to be entered this cheaply and owns a nice mark @ the trip.
| Race 7 | 1st -Scilly Cay | 2nd -Jemography | 3rd -Sagamore Mischief |
#8 SCILLY CAY ( like in the prior affair ) is another Baker runner showing a Z pattern in their last ( falling back 4 3/4 lengths from the 1/4 to the 1/2 before regaining that exact same amount from there to the finish line ). Seven year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy ! ) has done his best work in Ozone Park, as the 22:4-4-5 local ledger stands out favorably against that 13:1-3-1 mark otherwise, and would be aided by any sort pace duel. #3 JEMOGRAPHY gets some class relief and digs it here. #6 SAGAMORE MISCHIEF is a tad better off the break ( 7:1-3-0 ) than otherwise, and is as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 8 | 1st -Dr B | 2nd -Ain't Broke | 3rd -Rosebug |
#5 DR B went coast to coast like butter and toast versus slightly tougher off the bench ( improving her local mark to 3:2-1-0 ), and historically, this miss is 4:1-1-0-2 in second off the shelf jamborees. Expect a reduction in the speed figure department today, as she's not as good on a fast track, but it should still be enough in this humdrum allotment. #7 AIN'T BROKE was a dead game & well clear runner up the only time she was in a 3rd off the layoff spot, and although she's being hiked up in class, it's difficult to get past the unblemished Aqueduct record. #2 ROSEBUG is a bit of a fragile sort, but always gives a good account of herself, and that includes being 4:2-1-1 off a respite.
| Race 9 | 1st -Easy Play | 2nd -Highway Harmony | 3rd -Mim |
#2 EASY PLAY has some decent early zip, and rates a slight edge here, but it's entirely dependent on the outside runners permitting her to get away early. Mild choice. #8 HIGHWAY HARMONY hasn't shown diddly poo since returning off an elongated absence, but found the line first the only time she set hoof on a track labeled FST, and could improve in today's 3rd off the break try. #1 MIM is a palindrome who seems properly spotted after tangling with some starter foes, and rates a chance if able to get back to the November effort. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 GHOSTBUSTIN
Aqueduct 18-85 ( $129.10 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 32-85 ( 37.7% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
