Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #5 Candy Tycoon
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Cheeky Tico | 2nd -Predicted | 3rd -Norgay |
#5 CHEEKY TICO gave a decent account of himself on New Year's Eve, and sheds a whopping eight pounds off that five length defeat. Today's jock guided this one to a couple of showings from as many pairings last year, and gelding should be no worse than 2nd for those who like to grind out a place profit. #4 PREDICTED is a nibbler by rote, but has the ability to send or rate just a bit, and finds himself at his lowest level to date; main threat to the above. #6 NORGAY is 2 for 8 at this dx., 0 for 14 @ other trips, and that's enough reason to include.
| Race 2 | 1st -Shesalittle Edgy | 2nd -To a T | 3rd -Remain Anonymous |
#5 SHESALITTLE EDGY made every call a winning one the only time she was in a 3rd off the bench jammie, is 4:2-2-0 at this dist., and is backed up by a solid DRF Formulator stat this afternoon. Over the last 43,824 hours, Atras clicks at a 4 for 7 rate with locally based mid level sand sprinters ridden by this pilot off breaks of 26-49 days ( females ), and the winners in that study came back $3 x 2, $6 & $9. #4 TO A T has always been more of a fringe player than anything else, but is 7:3-2-1 when up for grabs, and overcame some trouble to lose by less than a length in her lone pairing with today's helmsman. #6 REMAIN ANONYMOUS comes in today off a win against similar, but as there was a voided claim that day, you'd be advised to take a looksie during the warmup. NOTE: AS OF 5:44 P.M., DUE TO AN ERROR THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Mi Tres Por Ciento ( Chi ) | 2nd -Charlie Five O | 3rd -Dontbelate |
#2 MI TRES POR CIENTO sure is a game ol' warhorse, ain't he ? Nine year old takes his 68th afternoon trek to the frontside today, and this chestnut chap has hit the board in more than half of those starts. Fella switches from an apprentice to a journeyman here, and boy, that 29:10-5-6 ledger at the dx. sure pops off the page, don't it ? #1A CHARLIE FIVE O has been ghastly in the last pair, but was a lively & daylight clear runner up behind a next out victor the last time he was at this level, and switches from a slumping bug to a journeyman. #6 DONTBELATE shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and as he's ascended the Beyer scale over his last quartet, who knows where this one's current ceiling is. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 CANDY TYCOON
| Race 4 | 1st -Mischief Joke | 2nd -Antonio of Venice | 3rd -Detective Tom |
Featured race of the day is a truncated rendition of the Rego Park, and we'll give the nod to #4 MISCHIEF JOKE. Maker charge has yet to miss the money over a glib surface, and there's a decent trainer stat in play for the aforementioned shotcaller. With Aqueduct dirt dashers at this level who crashed the party 29-50 days back ( no juice ), he'e 5 of 9 ( $4, $12, $5, $8 & $7 ), with sub category of 1-1 w/ today's jockey astride. #3 ANTONIO OF VENICE ( who was generously left up in the half million dollar NYB Stallion Series, many feel ) will take a bunch of money off that deal, and is another supported by a nice barn number. Rudy Rod is a poyfect three fer three with AQU based ungraded dirt sprinters who won 22-40 days in the rear ( no Lasix ), and those winners paid $10, $3 & $6. #5 DETECTIVE TOM has enough speed to last for a share.
| Race 5 | 1st -Pine Valley | 2nd -Blue Plate Special | 3rd -Ice Road |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 PINE VALLEY hasn't done much to get the heart thumping over his last pair, but we like to go back three races to fins something positive, and five year old completed the superfecta at 81-1 vs. substantially tougher, posting an adjusted figaro of 72.3 -- which would put him in the thick of things here. Bombs away ! #1 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL ( How many current horse fans under the age of 30 actually know what a 'Blue Plate Special' is ?? ) -- who seems like a solid show wager for those inclined to do such -- has done nothing but improve over his last foursome, and drops to an all time low. #6 ICE ROAD has been an in and outer of late and can grab a chunk.
| Race 6 | 1st -Scoop the Pot | 2nd -Rudy Rudy Rudy | 3rd -Crown That Saint |
#5 SCOOP THE POT undergoes a gamut of changes for today's 3rd start off the pine -- new captain, gets the miracle drug now, goes over a track labeled FST for the first time, and sheds a few ounces, after having recently lost his procreting abilities. Mild edge in an uninspiring affair. #6 RUDY RUDY RUDY ( Known as "Rudy Cubed" to his friends ) fought like the Fighting Irish when setting a snappy opening split last out, and now has the "Big L" added off that effort. Sensible inclusion. #2 CROWN THAT SAINT has posted a couple'a decent #'s over a quick surface, and is yet another now in need of the anti bleeding medication, while also being affixed with eye cups ( and getting an upgrade in the leather ).
| Race 7 | 1st -Ghostlyprince | 2nd -Iron Works | 3rd -Portos |
#8 GHOSTLYPRINCE showed zilch in the last, but has partaken in the super in 14 of 17 when entered with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt, and two of those decent tries came when going from one turn to two. May surprise. #1 IRON WORKS is another who has done okay when up for grabs, and is bringing in a baby "Z" pattern from the last. Would be no shock despite the class hike. #9 PORTOS has been camera shy for nearly three years now ( Umm...what ? ), but the grey gelding has a propensity for collecting some checks, so we'll toss into the unders.
| Race 8 | 1st -Warrior's Ransom | 2nd -Portage | 3rd -Bustin Bay |
#4 WARRIOR'S RANSOM has regresses in the speed department over her last three races, but let's take a closer look at things, shall we ? If you toss the last three stakes races, what you have is a critter who's on an 8:4-3-1 run over the last ten+ months, and that includes having a career 4:3-1-0 record when going from two turns to one. We actually think we may get a tad of value here. #8 PORTAGE has been away since early October, but found the line first the only time she set her tootsies on this oval, and recent breeze signals readiness. #7 BUSTIN BAY ( like so many descendants of Bustin Stones ) has fared well in Ozone Park, and rates a chance if able to get back to the penultimate effort.
| Race 9 | 1st -J D Factor | 2nd -Eliminate | 3rd -Bounteous |
#7 J D FACTOR displayed stark improvement from her debut to the followup, ( shocker ) and four returnees from that deal went 4:1-1-1 in their next engagements. From a trainer stat point of view, barn has won all three times they entered a runner without the miracle drug, who were 1-2-3 49 to 67 days in the past ( $22, $7 & $6 ). #3 ELIMINATE has yet to finish out of the superfecta, and cuts back for today's 3rd off the bench spot, while losing da hood and adding da juice. Logical. #1 BOUNTEOUS closes out the week.
Aqueduct 10-93 ( $155.50 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 32-94 ( 37% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
