Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Take Time to Dream | 2nd -Belle of the Ball | 3rd -Prugova |
#4 TAKE TIME TO DREAM hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but posted a career best ( and race best ) 71.9 adj. in a near identical spot before being briefly shelved. Anything close to that should get the job done, and adding to the allure is that this barn has won with both maiden claiming dirt stock ( getting juice ) off breaks of 54-73 days @ 11-1 or less. #3 BELLE OF THE BALL has yet to miss the superfecta on the sand, and shedrow has won three of four locally based dirt entrants at this level ( receiving Lasix ) off L/O's of a bakers' dozen days or less ( $4, $24 & $10 ). #1 PRUGOVA gets her working papers today, and totes along a fat 384 Tommy for the trip. NOTE: AS OF 3:33 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 2 | 1st -Flamingo Hawk | 2nd -Prince of Joy | 3rd -Critical Threat |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 FLAMINGO HAWK showed little in the first start off the claim, but posted a decent figure just before that, and is facing an extremely weak allotment this afternoon. Slight edge. #4 PRINCE OF JOY played the fade last time out after blowing up the totalizator board just prior to that, and just may make amends back at that level. #1 CRITICAL THREAT ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there ) rounds out the top three.
| Race 3 | 1st -Majestic Frontier | 2nd -Daddy Knows | 3rd -Digital |
#8 MAJESTIC FRONTIER has won three of his last six after losing 15 straight, and although he's a notorious nibbler at this dist. ( 7:0-5-1 ), is backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days , Dally ( 11% on the norm ) is three fer four with mid level dirt runners off sabbaticals of 53-117 days, and those winners came back a decent $19 x 2 & $3. #5 DADDY KNOWS has been ITM in four of five 3rd off the break jammies, and game eight year old has done quite well here over the years. #6 DIGITAL is 5:1-1-2 when cutting back from two turns to one, and after being kept in jail since the Dec. 9th Turfway Park claim, is entered for 62.5% of that price this afternoon; take a gander during the warmups.
| Race 4 | 1st -Notah | 2nd -Newport Bridge | 3rd -Bad to the Bones |
#4 NOTAH returned off an extended vacation to bring up the rear on National Hangover Day, but it's good to see that not only has this one partaken in the superfecta in both "2nd off the shelf" engagements, but is backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic as well. Over the last five years, this barn is a "Terra" when running up the white flag for the first time with his mid level dirt runners, as he's three fer three with that type ( $5 x 2 & $9 ). #3 NEWPORT BRIDGE takes the obligatory hike in class after being bought for a quarter on Christmas Eve Eve, and we see that this one's lifetime best # came in a second off the bench deal. #5 BAD TO THE BONES lost by a neck and a nose in both 2nd off the absence attempts, and is another made available for purchase for the 1st time.
| Race 5 | 1st -She's Awesome | 2nd -Twist Her | 3rd -Anileate |
#6 SHE'S AWESOME has immolated a bunch of baccala over her last troika, but for all intents and purposes, should positively crush these. #1 TWIST HER has yet to finish off the board, and who are we to rock that boat ? #2 ANILEATE didn't do much to get the heart thumping when being hiked up in class when last facing the starter, but as she's yet to hit the board on a wet track, we'll be forgiving of that, and switches from a cold apprentice to a journeyman in this spot.
| Race 6 | 1st -Scilly Cay | 2nd -Jemography | 3rd -Sagamore Mischief |
#7 SCILLY CAY ( like in the prior affair ) is another Baker runner showing a Z pattern in their last ( falling back 4 3/4 lengths from the 1/4 to the 1/2 before regaining that exact same amount from there to the finish line ). Seven year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy ! ) has done his best work in Ozone Park, as the 22:4-4-5 local ledger stands out favorably against that 13:1-3-1 mark otherwise, and would be aided by any sort pace duel. #4 JEMOGRAPHY gets some class relief and digs it here. #3 SAGAMORE MISCHIEF is a tad better off the break ( 7:1-3-0 ) than otherwise, and is as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 7 | 1st -Easy Play | 2nd -Voleuse | 3rd -Mim |
#8 EASY PLAY has been a bit humdrum over the last pair, but was in solid form for the septet just prior to that, and it's encouraging to see that there's no scary drop here. Mare can pose a threat if able to set some easy splits early on. #6 VOLEUSE is a nibbler by nature, but her best work has come at today's distance of ground ( 5:1-1-3-1 ), and her chances improve if someone tangos with the above. #5 MIM faced some toughies in both starts after the claim by Jimmy Ferraro, and as she found the line first the last time she was in with Empire breds, we feel she could be sitting on a vastly improved effort in this spot.
| Race 8 | 1st -Tabeguache | 2nd -No Burn | 3rd -Guntown |
#1 TABEGUACHE enters today off a lifetime best numbah, was a convincing 6-1 victor the only time he was in a 3rd off the break deal, owns a 2:1-1-0 ledger when first to load, and we have an Ozone Park Geroux sighting in January !! Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #3 NO BURN is a bit of an in and outer, but it's difficult to argue with this win machine's 3 for 5 mark at today's dx., as well as having fared quite well beneath today's helmsman. #4 GUNTOWN has won two of his last four, and can't fault those taking a favorable view. NOTE: AS OF 11:00, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-2-8.
| Race 9 | 1st -Runandscore | 2nd -Watch Hill | 3rd -October Bliss |
#1 RUNANDSCORE overcame getting smacked around at the onset to be a dead game and decently clear runner up versus a tougher allotment at Philadelphia Park a month ago, and after undergoing a trainer change since, totes along the rider from that day. Recognize that this fella outran his offering when hitting the board in both starts here last annum. #8 WATCH HILL will be brought over by an hombre who's three of four with Aqueduct dirt sprinters taking the biggest drop in the game off L/O's of < three dozen days ridden by today's pilot ( 11-1 or beneath ), and those winners came back $4, $5 & $12. #7 OCTOBER BLISS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but 9% barn clicks at a 2-6 rate with sand starters at this level ( getting the big "L" ) off sabbaticals of 58 days or greater ( $8 & $9 ). Pre layoff pilot comes back, and that's something we always like to see. NOTE: AS OF 11:04, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-7-3.
Aqueduct 10-93 ( $155.50 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 32-94 ( 37% )( As of last Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
