1/27 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Nice start to the week for us here yesterday, as we had a three bagger ( $17, $12 & $4 ), three Exacta Boxes ( $172, $65 & $62 ), a $144 Triple Box, and a $31 Quinella Box, as we are besting the takeout rate for the meet.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#8 HAPPY'S SMILE gave a decent account of herself when catching a fast track for the first time, as she closed out the superfecta at 10-1, despite being taken seven wide that day. Gal draws ideally for today's 3rd start off the pine, while toting two less pounds. #3 FOXY CARA should be no worse than second here for all you place punters, but the 11:M-3-6-2 run is giving the impression of being "that" kind of horse, and while she'll likely pick up the lion's share at some point in time, horses like these are always a bitter pill to swallow. #2 SPEIGHTFUL LILY gets in light for today's bow, and brings along a healthy 372 Tomlinson for the trip.  NOTE: AS OF 10:57, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-4-5.

#4 FULL MOON FEVER returned off an elongated absence to give his backers a 47-1 thrill back on the 4th, and now switches from an apprentice to a journeyman in today's 2nd start off the pine. The only time he was in said layoff scenario, it resulted in a wire to wire score, right here, beneath today's helmsman. #8 KEYSTONE FIELD is a stakes winning/stakes placed nine year old gelding who finds himself at his lowest level to date, so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a looooong looksie pre race. Brown chap owns a win and a placing from just as many "true" second off the layoff scenarios, and while we'll be incorporating, it's with more than an ounce of trepidation. #5 DURKIN'S CALL may perk up a bit after the brief freshening & blinker addition.  NOTE: AS OF 11:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#5 BERGEN has done little wrong in both starts to date, and in a race where his four competitors have done their best work on the engine, this fella likes to sit and chill, which may work perfectly from today's outside placement. #4 AIR CAV ( "Da da da daaahhh dum, da da da dahhhh dum !!" ) is an uncoupled barnmate with the above, and after being given some time off since the Champagne trouncing, is placed in a more realistic spot; note the lone fast track effort resulted in a tally. #3 STOLEN MAGIC has improved over his three outings, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Fella has been in the money in all those starts, and who are we to rock that boat? 

#3 CUANDO ( By "Not This Time" -- ya get it ? ) begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with a a few nicely tucked away morning moves -- including a best of 20 gate bullet, which is something that always gets our attention. None of the siblings did anything thrilling, but five of the six upstairs members of the family tree got their initial tally within the first three starts, and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here. Since March 11th of last year, Levine is a crisp 9:5-1-1 with his firsters at 15-1 or less running sans eye cups, and those winners came back a more than healthy, $25, $10, $31, $5 & $4. The more we type...  #8 HAVE YOU HEARD ( and of COURSE we've included Peter Griffin's "Bird is the word" skit from Family Guy right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WNrx2jq184 ) has done nothing but improve over every afternoon trek to the frontside, but Cancel's been lousy of late, so we'll keep beneath. #5 RIDGEWOOD RUNNER is in receipt of blinks and the miracle drug for the 1st time, and would be no surprise. 

#7 LIGHT MAN has been in absentia since scoring right outta the box in Saratoga a year and a half ago, and returns getting the magic medicine, while having since received the unkindest cut of all. Once again, there's a nice trainer stat in play for this clan, as they're on a 6:4-0-1-1 skein with those off breaks of 53 days or more ( $9, $15, $5 & $23 ). #4 ICY FLAVOR has had a bout of seconditis of late, but is reacquainted with blinkahs, with which he's 4:2-2-0 ( excluding the one heat after a hibernation ). #6 DONEGAL SURGES hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but owns some back class, and The Toddster knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers. 

#7 SHAKE THE SUGAR was a well beaten but decently clear runner up when starting things out in Maryland last month, and when it comes to adding Lasix to their maiden second time sand starters at 7-1 or beneath, Formulator has this shedrow on a three for seven streak ( $6, $5 & $3 ). #8 VALUE AREA has yet to miss the board & now gets "The Big L" for the first time. Logical, but likely to be overbet. #6 GROWTH RATE has been MIA for a while, but January foal has a maturity edge over these, and is likely better bred for the sandy stuff. 

#2 ALTERNATE REALITY is an intriguing longshot in this spot. Chestnut chap comes in off a 13-1 win facing what we would consider to be a slightly tougher allotment ( ending up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts ), and is reunited with our gal Jackie, who has guided this one to two straight wins ( outside of stakes company ) last spring. 4YO has shown improvement over his last quartet of dashes, and new outfit is on a 5:1-2-2 streak with freshly purchased stock ( $28 ), and that comes after being 12:0-0-3 with such. #5 UN OJO digs the trip & strip, and we see no reason to exclude at 8-1. #4 SAFFA'S DAY is one fer two in 2nd off the bench jammies over a glib surface, and owns some decent tactical speed. NOTE: AS OF 11:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#8 NAPA VALLEY played the fade after flashing some decent early hoof after being away for a couple'a months, but gelding won two straight ( and three of four ) prior to that at Mountaineer and Chuck Town. The wet track score was her finest to date, and if you were to prorate that to her best on a track labeled FST, what you come up with is a decent fig. Recognize that this one was a lively runner up the only time she was in a 2nd off the L/O spot, and although Katie's been frigid for a while, her lone win on the stand was in fact with a bomber. #2 SUERTE is an extremely consistent sort who comes in off a lifetime best #. #3 MACALLAN is a fragile five year old, but has a decent overall body of work, and can land a share. NOTE: AS OF 11:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#4 DR B went coast to coast like butter and toast versus slightly tougher off the bench ( improving her local mark to 3:2-1-0 ),  and historically, this miss is 4:1-1-0-2 in second off the shelf jamborees. Expect a reduction in the speed figure department today, as she's not as good on a fast track, but it should still be enough in this humdrum allotment. #7 AIN'T BROKE was a dead game & well clear runner up the only time she was in a 3rd off the layoff spot, and although she's being hiked up in class, it's difficult to get past the unblemished Aqueduct record. #8 ROSEBUG is a bit of a fragile sort, but always gives a good account of herself, and that includes being 4:2-1-1 off a respite.  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#4 VON HOFF completes our quartet of top selections from the Davis/McCarthy extended clan this afternoon, and we're basing it on this one's solid progression since beginning her career back in '21. #3 NIGHT EFFECT was claimed out of a wire to wire job versus conditional platers a baker's dozen days back, and that victory was his sole start over this oval. #9 ASSUME NOTHING ( "You know what happens when you 'assume', don't you?" ) has been ITM in all his sand deals, and what the hell's wrong with that ? 

Aqueduct 23-102 ( $188.50 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 33-102 ( 32.9% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout