Yucky day for us here yesterday, but we're still besting the takeout for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Flying In Style | 2nd -Caldo Candy | 3rd -Paschal Moon |
#3 FLYING IN STYLE is displaying a baby "Z" pattern from the most recent, when losing three lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining two back from that point to the finish line, and after starting out the meet 4 for 53, Dylan is on a scorching 8 for 11 run as of this writing. Slight advantage in an opener with but one first draft elimination. #4 CALDO CANDY has put forth three honest efforts to begin his working life, and is logical in today's 3rd start off the pine. #1 PASCHAL MOON has been a part of the superfecta in his last troika, but we'll keep beneath, as Cancel has looked awful out there of late.
| Race 2 | 1st -Dads Good Runner | 2nd -Memphis | 3rd -Steady Progress |
This race just may have the looks of a price coming in, so we'll take a swing with #1 DADS GOOD RUNNER. Five year old put forth an honest showing the only time he went two turns, owns some good speed in a deal seemingly devoid of much, and we've seen this rider get ignored at a big price one day while on the choo choo, and can envision a similar scenario here. Ooofa with #3 MEMPHIS, as this $850,000 auction purchase hasn't done diddly poo to justify that price, but is 3:1-0-2 when up for grabs, and is logical in this spot. #5 STEADY PROGRESS handled the first start against winners with aplomb, when placing at 19-1, and as that's never an easy thing to accomplish, we'll toss into the hopper.
| Race 3 | 1st -Khali Magic | 2nd -Bernt Again | 3rd -April Antics |
#4 KHALI MAGIC ( who should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there ) essentially went all the way in this race at the end of 2023, and we see no reason a repeat isn't well within reach. #6 BERNT AGAIN comes in off a crisp score when tangling with weaker, and found the line first the only time she was in a second off the L/O scenario. Appears to be the mainger danger to the above. #8 APRIL ANTICS is a nibbler by rote, and has fared okay both times she was last to load. Meh.
| Race 4 | 1st -Aggregation | 2nd -Rotknee | 3rd -Andiamo a Firenze |
#1 AGGREGATION came within a half length of completing the hat trick in a similar spot on December 29th, and is now reunited with Franco, who's a crisp four fer five with going one turn on this fella. In a bizarre racing office anomaly, from nine starts, he's drawn the rail seven times, the two hole once, and the three hole, also once -- so today's inside placement is no issue whatsoever. #3 ROTKNEE has the sort of "declining" mark that we've grown to love over the years ( 16:8-3-1 ), as it tells us he knows exactly where the line is. 5YO is undefeated at the trip and must be included. #2 ANDIAMO A FIRENZE takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged for a hefty sum in December, and zippy sort may hang for a share.
| Race 5 | 1st -J D Factor | 2nd -Capital Idea | 3rd -Bounteous |
#2 J D FACTOR displayed stark improvement from her debut to the followup, ( shocker ) and four returnees from that deal went 4:1-1-1 in their next engagements. From a trainer stat point of view, barn has won all three times they entered a runner without the miracle drug, who were 1-2-3 49 to 67 days in the past ( $22, $7 & $6 ). #1 CAPITAL IDEA fought the good fight when closing out the tri on New Year's Eve, and now ( of COURSE ) is in need of the miracle drug. Fella slides in a few slots, but will need to find a seam late.#6 BOUNTEOUS closes out the race.
| Race 6 | 1st -Blake B | 2nd -Grumps Little Tots | 3rd -Co Conspirator |
#1 BLAKE B. has been kept in prison since the December 15th claim, and drops back down to to the level from the tally just before that, while carrying the lightest weight of his career. Meekest of choices in a deal with but one first draft tossout. #5 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS is displaying a bit of a "Z" pattern from the most recent, ( losing three lengths from the quarter to the top of the stretch before gaining 2 1/2 of that from there to the line ) and owns a nice 9:2-3-1-2 record from there to the finish line. May be coming late. #4 CO CONSPIRATOR has yet to be entered this cheaply and owns a nice mark @ the trip.
| Race 7 | 1st -Princess Vino | 2nd -Poseidon's Mist | 3rd - Elite Status |
We're seeing today's 7th as easy as 1-2-3 !! #1 PRINCESS VINO has immolated baccala in both starts to date, but had an excuse in one of them, and slides in six slots today, while being given "The Big L" and eye cups for the first time. Should appreciate the extra panel. #2 POSEIDON'S MIST comes in today off a lifetime best figaro, and that's reason enough to put in. #3 ELITE STATUS was a damn solid 3rd place finisher when beginning her career in a stakes, and makes all kinds of sense being another who's "suddenly a bleeder". NOTE: AS OF 11:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Divine Cross | 2nd -Darn That Song | 3rd -Midtown Rose |
#8 DIVINE CROSS has already earned back a sizeable amount of money after being claimed for a quarter around Turkey Time, so Jacobsen drops this one way down in hopes of completing the profitable transaction with a check & another ( likely ) claim. Sensible, but will take a bit of pounding at the windows. #2 DARN THAT SONG has always preferred the fringes more than anything else, but digs the seagulls and completed the tri the only time he was in a "second off the respite" spot. #5 MIDTOWN ROSE is an eight yr. old getting blinks for the 1st time in this, her 57th start ( Huh ? ), and we're curious enough to lob in there.
| Race 9 | 1st -Mischief Joke | 2nd -Antonio of Venice | 3rd -Detective Tom |
Featured race of the day is a truncated rendition of the Rego Park, and we'll give the nod to #2 MISCHIEF JOKE. Maker charge has yet to miss the money over a glib surface, and there's a decent trainer stat in play for the aforementioned shotcaller. With Aqueduct dirt dashers at this level who crashed the party 29-50 days back ( no juice ), he'e 5 of 9 ( $4, $12, $5, $8 & $7 ), with sub category of 1-1 w/ today's jockey astride. #3 ANTONIO OF VENICE ( who was generously left up in the half million dollar NYB Stallion Series, many feel ) will take a bunch of money off that deal, and is another supported by a nice barn number. Rudy Rod is a poyfect three fer three with AQU based ungraded dirt sprinters who won 22-40 days in the rear ( no Lasix ), and those winners paid $10, $3 & $6. #4 DETECTIVE TOM has enough speed to last for a share.
| Race 10 | 1st -Augustine Red | 2nd -Stormquist | 3rd -Badlands Ruler |
#4 AUGUSTINE RED has shown improvement during the course of his three dirt deals, and loses da blinks for today's "2nd off the shelf/2nd time Lasix" deal. Colt was climbing & lugging in when last in action, so it would behoove you to take a looooooong looksie pre race. #9 STORMQUIST ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) has been away since the November 5th claim, but we like that he's protected against such here, and was photogenic the only time he came back after a sabbatical. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the running lines of #1 BADLANDS RULER, as not only has he seemingly figured things out as he goes along, but bested a last out victor in the most recent -- while breaking from the inside.
Aqueduct 24-112 ( $192.30 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 37-112 ( 33% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
