Decent day for us here on Sunday with three winners, a $267 Exacta Box, and a $22 Cold Triple, as we're still besting the takeout rate on the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Army of Thoughts | 2nd -My Gorgeous | 3rd -Practical Miss |
#4 ARMY OF THOUGHTS had front wraps added after a 16-1 placing behind a next out victress ( hmmmm.... ), so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. That being said, she totes the lightest impost of her career, and perhaps she simply didn't appreciate the sloppy going last out. Stock goes up if the bandages are removed. #1 MY GORGEOUS hasn't faced the starter since the end of April, but posted an adjusted 40.2 in the lone try off a break ( which fits here ), and gal draws the outside for the 1st time. #3 PRACTICAL MISS was a dead game and well clear runner up in similar spot, and makes all kinds of sense once again. NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish !! ), DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Dame Cinco | 2nd -Sweetest Princess | 3rd -Frau Diablo |
Pair of solid DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to 'em directly. #1 DAME CINCO fought the good fight when picking up 20% of the pot in a near identical spot two fortnights back, and sheds a couple'a lb.'s while moving in two slots off of that. When it comes to their locally based allowance sand sprinters who crashed the fiesta 6-50 days in the rear, this outfit has won with half of their six starters ( $7 x 6 & $2 ). #2 SWEETEST PRINCESS ( yet another solid purchase by Jimmy Ferraro ) has gone 4:2-2-0 on the main since being snagged up in Toga, and aside from this one's best work coming at The Big A ( 8:3-0-4, compared to being 9:0-2-2 otherwise ), is backed by a 5 for 12 trainer stat with Aqueduct based female dirt runners at this level who were 1-2-3 16-41 days in the past ( 9-1 or < ). The mutuels came back $3, $5, $8, $9 & $10, and gal may sit a sweet trip. #6 FRAU DIABLO flopped in her first start against winners, but that's never an easy spot, and may rebound.
| Race 3 | 1st -Bad Larry | 2nd -Talkin Pharoah | 3rd -Little Luca |
We have a troika of strong trainer stats in play here, so let's get to 'em in a no frills fashion. #5 BAD LARRY: 17% barn nearly triples that rate with freshly purchased mid level dirt dashers being hiked by 50% or more ( 10-1 or undah ). They're 4 fer 8 with that sort, with the winners paying $13 x 2, $9 & $7, and there's a sub category of 1-1 in Ozone Park. #6 TALKIN PHAROAH: Shedrow is 6 of 18 with AQU based male runners at this level ( w/ this pilot ) off sabbaticals of 58 days or more ( $2.11 ROI ). #7 LITTLE LUCA: Kantarmaci is 7 for 28 with Queens purchases on the sand ( 14-1 or beneath ) who were ITM 6-50 days back.
| Race 4 | 1st -Ghostlyprince | 2nd -Khafre | 3rd -Joking Way |
#1 GHOSTLYPRINCE displayed diddly poo in what we would consider to be a slightly softer spot back on 12/17, but five returnees from that deal have come back to amass a cumulative 5:2-0-1 in their next outings, and this fella is backed by a sweet Formulator stat. Over the last five annums, Rudy Rod is a near poyfect 4 for 5 with dirt entrants at this level ( and locale ) ridden by Gomez @ 21-1 or lowah. The winners came back a FAT $43, $28, $22 & $8, and recognize that this one placed by only a length the one time he started from the wood. #5 KHAFRE drops three pounds off a tally ( something we always dig ), and lightly raced 6YO was a snappy winner the only time he was in a 3rd off the L/O scenario. #6 JOKING WAY totes the lightest impost of his career and could perk up some.
| Race 5 | 1st -Scoop the Pot | 2nd -Rudy Rudy Rudy | 3rd -Crown That Saint |
#9 SCOOP THE POT undergoes a gamut of changes for today's 3rd start off the pine -- new captain, gets the miracle drug now, goes over a track labeled FST for the first time, and sheds a few ounces, after having recently lost his procreating abilities. Mild edge in an uninspiring affair. #5 RUDY RUDY RUDY ( Known as "Rudy Cubed" to his friends ) fought like the Fighting Irish when setting a snappy opening split last out, and now has the "Big L" added off that effort. Sensible inclusion. #7 CROWN THAT SAINT has posted a couple'a decent #'s over a quick surface, and is yet another now in need of the anti bleeding medication, while also being affixed with eye cups ( and getting an upgrade in the leather ).
| Race 6 | 1st -Halo City | 2nd -Vegas Weekend | 3rd -Sister Linda |
#7 HALO CITY came along honestly enough to grab second place money against starter foes right here four weeks in the rear, and after 40 career starts, now finds herself at her lowest level to date. Horse for the course will be led over by a bossman who's an angelic 9 of 14 with Aqu. sand dashers at this level who were ITM 21-43 days in the past ( ridden by this pilot ), and the return on investment for that study is more than three clams. #4 VEGAS WEEKEND has won her last pair when spotted for 16K, and that's reason enough to include. #6 SISTER LINDA has never been entered this cheaply and digs today's distance of ground.
| Race 7 | 1st -Midlaner | 2nd -Life Changer | 3rd -Power Seeker |
#2 MIDLANER returned off a lengthy layoff to best softer competition at Philadelphia Park in the 8th of January, and not only do we like that the local rider comes in for the call, but that this boy has a crisp 8:3-0-2-2 record when first to load. Slight edge in a heat with no first draft tosses. #5 LIFE CHANGER got his Polaroid taken the only time he was in a 3rd off the bench engagement ( beneath today's jockola ), and that win ( along with another placing ) came the only times he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. #1A POWER SEEKER is but a neck shy of being two for two over a glib surface, and draws ideally. NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Profitability | 2nd -Collected Special | 3rd -I Got Busted |
#7 PROFITABILITY is a cheaply bred homebred who's already earned back a bit more than the $2,500 stud fee ( less expenses, of course ), and after playing the fade late in the game vs. special weight competition, is smartly spotted in for 40 today. When it comes to his maiden claiming sand stock getting juice off breaks of < two dozen days ( 9-1 or beneath ), Weaver is a dreamy 7 of 12, with a fat ROI of $4.18. Race goes through this one. #9 COLLECTED SPECIAL hasn't been in action since early November, but hung up an adj. 67 in his sole start off a L/O ( sans Lasix ), and that heat was his only one when beginning from an outsideish slot. #11 I GOT BUSTED draws ideally for today's lid lifter, totes a 406 Tommy for today's trip, and progeny of Bustin Stones have always fared well at Big A. NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct 27-122 ( $210.10 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 42-122 ( 34.4% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
