Decent day for us here yesterday, with a pair of winners ( $26 & $6 ), a $183 cold Triple, a $93 cold Exacta, a $175 Exacta Box, a $171 Rolling Double, and a $90 Quinella Box, as we're still besting the takeout on the stand.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Commerce Comet | 2nd -Lafitte's Fleet | 3rd -Just Call Ray |
#2 COMMERCE COMET came out of jail after the December snag, and went coast to coast like butter and toast at the level claimed from over this oval. Gelding takes the sensible hike in class this afternoon, and after a rocky run in his starts here in 22/23 & late 23, jock has turned things around a bit. Slight edge. #4 LAFITTE'S FLEET has never been entered this cheaply, and has done his best work over this oval; encouraging that Franco sticks around. #5 JUST CALL RAY has hit the board in five of his last six with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and tho a bit of a nibbler here, digs the local seagulls.
| Race 2 | 1st -Perfect Outcome | 2nd -Four Eyes | 3rd -Captain Party |
#9 PERFECT OUTCOME has finished in the back half of the pack in each & every start to date, but we're assuaged by the fact that this one half of the Rudy Rod uncoupled entry is backed by a decent DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, said shotcaller clicks at a 5 for 18 rate with locally based maiden claiming sand sprinters off breaks of more than 50 days ( $2.10 ROI ). #5 FOUR EYES showed zilch in his first start off an elongated absence, but the adjusted figaros on this one's resume' are okay ( for this grouping ), and could surprise at a decent price. #2 CAPTAIN PARTY was a decently clear runner up the only time he was in a 2nd off the layoff situation, and deserves another chance after the comebacker. NOTE: DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-2-9.
| Race 3 | 1st -Peak of Chic | 2nd -Tempermental | 3rd -Ruvies in Time |
#6 PEAK OF CHIC has the quintessentially perfect "declining" mark that we've grown to love, ( 22:11-4-2 over a glib surface ) as it tells us that this one has a nose for the line, and that includes owning an 8 fer 16 record at today's distance of ground. Note the wire job in a near identical placement two back. #1 TEMPERMENTAL has been fairly consistent of late, and comes in today off the first start after a "true" break in the action. Logical if fully cranked up. #5 RUVIES IN TIME has been away for five flips of the calendar, but mare digs the trip & strip, and new trainer Ferraro gave this one a bit of a crisper breeze than the one two moves prior. NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish !! ), DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Hatch | 2nd -Rock the Weekend | 3rd -Anthracite |
#5 HATCH paid instant dividends after being snagged by Jimmy Ferraro around Turkey time, but displayed little when taking the mandatory hike in class 26 days later. Grey gelding had a legit excuse that afternoon, as he was picking up a whopping ten pounds off the nose victory, and rates a chance to make amends in being reunited w/ Rivera. #7 ROCK THE WEEKEND has done nothing to get the pulse racing over his last sextet, but closed out the triple behind a next out winner the only time he was last to load, and posted a decent ( for this allotment ) 70.4 vs. slightly tougher two back. #3 ANTHRACITE as good as any for the show dough. NOTE: DUE TO THE TRACK CONDITION, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-7-3.
| Race 5 | 1st -Leading Contender | 2nd -Optic Way | 3rd -Iron Works |
#6 LEADING CONTENDER nearly cracked the century mark when besting A1X foes on New Year's Eve Eve, and while a regression is always possible with today's hike in class off the career best #, we'll make him a mild selection as this is not the toughest of placements. #1 OPTIC WAY has always been a bit of a nibblah, but as he's crashed the party in five straight ( and completed the exacta the only time he began from the wood ), we'll chunk in. #3 IRON WORKS fared okay when showing a baby "Z" pattern from the last. Would be no shock despite the class hike.
| Race 6 | 1st -Shore Time | 2nd -Liberty Central | 3rd -Heavyweight Champs |
#1 SHORE TIME came along solidly to pick up 20% of the pot against similar type on this strip 27 days in the rear, and accomplished such at a juicy 19-1. Colt sheds 80 ounces off that effort, and we see that he hung up an adj. 68.1 the only time he ran on a track labeled FST. Could do with some pace to cut into. #2 LIBERTY CENTRAL has done very little wrong in his quartet of starts to date, and aside from the obvious, is backed by a strong trainer statistic. Quick's runners are just that when spotted in a mdspwt. dirt deal who were ITM < than three fortnights back ( getting juice ), and the mutuels for that study were a fat $33, $28, $11, $7, $19 & $8. #5 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS put forth a strong performance when debuting in a half mil stakes event in mid December ( while being luckily moved up to second after a bad DQ in that heat ), and now has the miracle drug added for today's followup. NOTE: DUE TO THE TRACK CONDITION, THE #5 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Blue Plate Special | 2nd -Very Debonaire | 3rd -Ice Road |
#5 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL ( How many current horse fans under the age of 30 actually know what a 'Blue Plate Special' is ?? ) -- who seems like a solid show wager for those inclined to do such -- has done nothing but improve over his last foursome, and drops to an all time low. #9 VERY DEBONAIRE goes over the dirt for just the 2nd time, and as he has some okay pedigree for the stuff, we'll toss in, given his penchant for hitting the board. #8 ICE ROAD has been an in and outer of late and can grab a chunk. NOTE: DUE TO THE TRACK CONDITION, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 8 | 1st -Murray | 2nd -Manny Wah | 3rd -Super Chow |
#2 MURRAY has been a different animal since being transferred into the Russell barn ( 4:2-2-0 ), and although he jumps into deeper waters today, we like this one's running style for today's seven panels. Mild choice in a race with no first draft tosses. #3 MANNY WAH ( cross entered at Turfway Park, so check the scratch board ) owns a win & a gamely 3rd place finish the only times he switched from synthetic to sand, and the said tally came in a second off the layoff situation. #5 SUPER CHOW is just about as consistent a critter as you can find, but we're always hesitant in using apprentices in stakes events, as there's usually a fair amount of dead weight in the saddle. Leaving beneath. NOTE: DUE TO THE TRACK CONDITION, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-2-3.
| Race 9 | 1st -Society Man | 2nd -Mission Beach | 3rd -Khanate |
#6 SOCIETY MAN showed marked improvement from his overture to the followup, and while some of that could be attributed to 4+ months of maturity, we really dig that it also came when going two turns for the first time. Pedigree tells us that there's a fair amount of room for improvement, and gelding now goes from a bug to a journeyman for today's 2nd off the L/O spot. #7 MISSION BEACH is two of four and should appreciate the added ground. #9 KHANATE rounds out the top three in this uninspiring rendition of the Withers.
| Race 10 | 1st -Zhen Lou | 2nd -Rezoom | 3rd -Love Like Crazy |
#2 ZHEN LOU has played the fade in every start thus far, but takes the biggest drop in the game for today's "2nd time Lasix & Blinkers" deal, and Dally nearly triples his regular 11% batting average when doing that to his sand sprinters off breaks of 39 days or less ( getting the big "L" ) at 12-1 or undah. He's 3 for 10 with that type ( $15, $4 & $9 ) with a sub cat of 1-2 right here. #7 REZOOM popped & stopped in the lid lifter, but was decently backed that day, and shedrow clicks at a 5-12 rate with AQU based female 2TS'ers going short on the main ( receiving the miracle drug ), off absences of 46 days or < ( $4 x 2, $9, $12 & $8 ). #11 LOVE LIKE CRAZY is another now getting Lasix, and catches a fast strip for the first time.
Aqueduct 29-131 ( $241.20 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 44-131 ( 33.6% )( As of Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
