Just one $12 winner yesterday, but we also had a $1,198 Rolling Pick Three, and two Rolling Doubles of $163 & $35, as we're still besting the takeout on the stand.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Ribot's Valentine
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Celestial Express | 2nd -Brown as a Biscuit | 3rd - Next on Stage |
#7 CELESTIAL EXPRESS got waffled with no palpable excuse right here on New Year's Eve Eve, and gal now gets an "Around the World" treatment for today's 2nd start over a glib surface. The blinkers which were added in the last are left back in the tack room, biggest drop in the game is now in place, and the wonder drug is now a part of the equation. From a DRF Formulator point of view, 9% barn has a 7:3-1-0-2 stat when given his stock this kind of drop off breaks or 20-50 days ( getting Lasix ) @ 31-1 or less ( $4, $64 & $9 ). #5 BROWN AS A BISCUIT ( scratched Friday for this ) is confidently hiked in class off the disappointing bow/claim, and is another now getting the big "L". #3 NEXT ON STAGE has yet to miss a superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat ?
| Race 2 | 1st -Chuck Willis ( Ire ) | 2nd -Printrack | 3rd -Beachwalker |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #3 CHICK WILLIS (IRE) is an 8 year old who "miraculously" posted a career best figaro when making his first start off the claim for Potts, and given this one's fondness for the trip & strip, we'd say the hat trick is quite feasible. #2 PRINTRACK is another coming in off a lifetime numbah, & is but a half length shy of having won five in a row. Tidy but tight trainer stat in play, as Rudy Rod is 3 for 10 with locally based sand stock at this level off of this kind of break at 3-1 or undah. #1A BEACHWALKER is a nibbler by rote ( 44:4-6-14 ), and completed the tri the ONLY time ( Huh ? ) he broke from the outside.
| Race 3 | 1st -Midnight Trouble | 2nd -Aula | 3rd -Portos |
#4 MIDNIGHT TROUBLE hasn't displayed a heck of a lot in the last pair, but has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the first time, and made every call a winning one the only time he made that second left over a fast track. Colt goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, and just may have a rebound in store. #1 AULA was a gamely winner vs. tougher in his one 1X to 2X heat, and said tally came over this oval with today's helmsman. #2 PORTOS has been camera shy for nearly three years now ( Umm...what ? ), but the grey gelding has a propensity for collecting some checks, so we'll toss into the unders.
| Race 4 | 1st -Lockbox | 2nd -Fancy Feline | 3rd -Mended We Stand |
#2 LOCKBOX overcame some trouble at the onset to fall short by only a length in a near identical placement two dozen days in the rear, and Dally more than doubles his normative 11% rate when he enters mid level sand stock right here at 10-1 or <, who were ITM less than 48 days in the rear, as he's 2 of 7 with that sort( $14 & $17 ). #6 FANCY FELINE has been a mite flat over the last duet, but we always like to go back three starts to find some value, and said deal wasn't half bad. Note that the only time this one had the eye cups removed, a 10-1 placing behind a next out winner was the end result, and gal may spice things up for a frigid clan. #1 MENDED WE STAND has been a part of the super in five straight, and that's enough to merit inclusion. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 RIBOT'S VALENTINE NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Clever Forever | 2nd -Horse Be With You | 3rd -Supreme Being |
#5 CLEVER FOREVER has yet to finish out of the top four on the sandy stuff, and while a bounce is always possible after having blinkers added for the maiden breaking win, that's somewhat negated with Pletcher's prowess in stretching out his maiden breakers to two turns. Slight edge. #3 HORSE BE WITH YOU has a 6:2-0-0-3 ledger when going from one turn to two, & is 2:1-0-1 at today's distance of ground. Sensible addition. #1 SUPREME BEING may plod along for a piece.
| Race 6 | 1st -Warriors Revenge | 2nd -Bustin Shout | 3rd -Six Percent |
#2 WARRIORS REVENGE isn't quite the win machine that he used to be, as after beginning his career 9 for 20, is "only" 1 for 5 since. That being said, he's two of two in 2nd off the bench attempts, while having accumulated a nice boxscore at today's trip. Gelding found the line first the last time he was up for grabs and ain't hopeless here. #3 BUSTIN SHOUT got up late in the game to best this sort a month ago, and we see no reason it can't be done again. #4 SIX PERCENT is a decent 8:1-3-1-1 off of true layoffs, and is on a 7:1-3-1-1 streak when tangling with Empire breds.
| Race 7 | 1st -Return the Ring | 2nd -Natural Harbor | 3rd - M B's Munning |
This threesome should be enough to get the job done for all your rolling activity. #3 RETURN THE RING went coast to coast like butter and toast versus conditional platers a month back -- securing his 2nd win in his last triad -- and although he got crushed when facing starter foes before that, perhaps it was merely a bounce. Should still be a square price. With the exception of a race when vanned off, #1 NATURAL HARBOR has yet to miss the money on the brown stuff, and should be smack dab in the thick of things once again. #7 M B'S MUNNING is two of two when breaking from the outermost two posts ( $14 & $19 ) and likes the dx..
| Race 8 | 1st -Sue Ellen Miskin | 2nd -Portage | 3rd -Self Isolation |
#3 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN ( We STILL love her free winging spirit ! ) is 10 of 20 lifetime 6 of 8 at the dist., 2 fer 2 when breaking from the pine, and is backed by a strong Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, this outfit is three for three with Aqu, based optional dirt horsies who scored a month back or less ( $5, $6 & $8 ). #4 PORTAGE has been away since early October, but found the line first the only time she set her tootsies on this oval, and recent breeze signals readiness. #2 SELF ISOLATION was a going away victress in her lone dirt outing off a break -- and it was also the last time she was in for a tag. NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2B WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 9 | 1st -Diannesretiring | 2nd -Collected Special | 3rd -In a Minute |
#5 DIANNESRETIRING has the hood added for today's 3rd start off the shelf ( while also dropping a few pegs ), and we wouldn't be shocked by any stretch of the imagination should this one show some improvement for a trainer that has done some "wonders" since returning. #8 COLLECTED SPECIAL hasn't been in action since early November, but hung up an adj. 67 in his sole start off a L/O ( sans Lasix ), and that heat was his only one when beginning from an outermost slot. #7 IN A MINUTE gets an around the world treatment this afternoon: First time wonder drug, loses the eye cups, and is now running sans tes-tee-klees. Would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression in here. NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct 30-141 ( $253.20 ) Beatable Favorites ( 0-5 ) Favorite's Win % 46-141 ( 32.6% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
