As for Sunday, to quote little Ralphie... "Skunked."
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #1 A New Peace
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Purpose | 2nd -Fast and Frisky | 3rd -Call Her Bluff |
#3 PURPOSE begins her working life this afternoon, and although the worktab has done little to get the pulse racing, this one was dropped by a 15:2-6-1 fast track runner ( 118K ), and the five upstairs members of the family tree went a cumulative 5:2-3-0 in their bows. #1 FAST AND FRISKY has been freshened up a bit since showing nada on the gramma back in November, but gets the wonder drug for the first time, and posted an adjusted 58.2 when debuting on the sand in Toga. #6 CALL HER BLUFF has yet to miss a superfecta finish, and in a race like this, that's saying something.
| Race 2 | 1st -Joey Freshwater | 2nd -American Monarch | 3rd -Nova Rags |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 JOEY FRESHWATER hadn't been the same animal since winning the Bay Shore last April ( 6:0-1-1 ), but returned off a 4 1/2 month sabbatical to score at the level just below this beneath today's pilot. Take a looksie during the warmups, as a bounce is always possible. #3 AMERICAN MONARCH is a bit of a fragile sort, but digs the trip, strip, and fared well the only time he was in a 3rd off the bench spot. #4 NOVA RAGS is 8:3-4-1 at today's distance of ground, and could be coming late with any pace to cut into.
| Race 3 | 1st -Blake B | 2nd -What's My Category | 3rd -Swift Tap |
Another race where our listed troika should suffice. #2 BLAKE B takes the mandatory hike in class after being claimed out of a winning effort for a dime right here on the 28th of January, and aside from shedding a couple of lb.'s off a win ( something we always dig ), this one has done quite well at the dist.. #1 WHAT'S MY CATEGORY is an hellacious nibbler ( 33:1-2-5 over a glib surface ), and may grind out another placing. #4 SWIFT TAP is one of two in 2nd off the bench jammies, and has enough speed to land a share. NOTE: AS OF 2:22 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 4 | 1st -Cees Get Degrees | 2nd -Clem Labine | 3rd -Seven Nation Army |
We're really not feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #2 CEES GET DEGREES has been away since being bought for half'a hunsky in mid August, and takes a precipitous drop in class for the comeback attempt. Gelding would need just about a win for the connections to only have a mild loss on the transaction, but this one's best efforts have occurred at today' dx., ( 15:5-2-3 compared to a 15:1-3-5 mark otherwise ), but demand some value, as Cancel's been terrible this meet. #1 CLEM LABINE is another coming in off a break, but eight yr. old has a 4:2-1-0-1 ledger when 1st to load, and totes five less pounds that he's ever carried in 46 starts. Watch out. #7 SEVEN NATION ARMY completes our triad of choices returning fresh, and although being camera shy for a while, can grab a piece.
| Race 5 | 1st -Sohana | 2nd -My Perfect Mistake | 3rd -Bustin Time |
#3 SOHANA was life and death to hold on when scoring right outta the box on New Year's Eve, and the one who finished directly behind her that day returned victorious, improving in the Beyer department by 10.2% in the process. Lasix is now suddenly needed, and the shotcaller is a crisp 4:3-1-0 with 2nd time starters going short on the sand, who procured the sheepskin 30-50 days ago ( $3 x 2 & $23 ). #5 MY PERFECT MISTAKE finished in the back half of the pack when tangling w/ winners after the maiden breaker, but gets some class relief here ( along with the big "L" ). #6 BUSTIN TIME has been in absentia since wiring the competition down in Wilmington first time out, and was claimed by Robbie that afternoon ( his first purchase in at least five annums. 414 Tommy tells us there's ample room for improvement.
| Race 6 | 1st -Pricing Power | 2nd -Clare Quilty | 3rd -Gold 'n' Scarlet |
#2 PRICING POWER has been away for a couple'a Halloweens, but was a bit tardy to the party in that Lexington lid lifter ( before dueling down on the inside ), and despite the lengthy hiatus, has but one extended absence on the worktab. No scary drop for this 5YO ( as Klaravich has been known to do ), and we'll give hum a tepid nod. #4 CLARE QUILTY ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) is a half to a pair of multiple race winners, and is showing a 13th best of 154 gate move for this. #6 GOLD 'N' SCARLET had all kinds of trouble when getting his working papers two months in the rear, and loses the eye cups while adding blinks for today's return.
| Race 7 | 1st -Capone | 2nd -Daufuskie Island | 3rd -Kunshan Bridge |
#5 CAPONE shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and as this one has ascended the Beyer ladder over his last quartet, who quite knows where this one's ceiling is in that regards. We consider this a drop in class, and see no reason another win isn't achievable. #9 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND isn't a big fan of The Big A, but excels at this dist., and has done his best work beneath today's captain. #3 KUNSHAN BRIDGE has partaken in the super in 10 of his last 11 and must be left in the mix.
| Race 8 | 1st -Icy Reply | 2nd -Halo City | 3rd -Whistler's Style |
#2 ICY REPLY tossed in a rare clunker in the most recent, but what we see is that this gal has a tendency to rebound nicely after an out of the money finish, as she's 6:2-3-0 in that scenario. Additionally, this miss ( another fine claim by Jimmy Ferraro ) is backed by a solid Formulator stat, as the 8% shotcaller is 8:3-2-2 with locally based allowance dirt stock at this level ( 20-50 days ) @ 16-1 or beneath ( $15, $11 & $9 ). #9 HALO CITY was a convincing victress when facing 16K foes last week, and as that apparently didn't take too much starch out of the collar, is wheeled right back while being protected against the claim. We always like when the pre-claim jock returns, and ALL of this mare's tallies have come beneath the seagulls. #1A WHISTLER'S STYLE has been alternating losses and wins since late October, so today should be a score, right ? If only the game was that simple. Tossing in because of the strong mark @ when going a mile. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 A NEW PEACE ( but only if the 1A declares )
Aqueduct 30-149 ( $253.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-6 ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win % 49-149 ( 32.7% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
