Nice day for us here yesterday with a troika of winners ( $4 & $6 & $15 ), a $43 cold Triple, two cold Exactas of $20 & $10, and a $7 cold Quinella, as we continue to best the takeout on the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #4 Fortune's Nephew
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Union Belle | 2nd -Amy's Light | 3rd -Brown as a Biscuit |
#7 UNION BELLE was in the rear with the gear when facing a tougher grouping towards the end of 2023, but is now in a "First time Lasix/Second time blinkers/First time outside post/Lowest level to date" scenario. Would only need to find one of those palatable to crush this grotesque grouping. #4 AMY'S LIGHT showed a touch of early hoof when starting things out on 1/5, and can improve off that with a cleaner onset, despite jumping into open company. #6 BROWN AS A BISCUIT popped and stopped in the comebacker, but can move up a bit in today's 2nd start off the respite.
| Race 2 | 1st -Chasing Daylight | 2nd -Sail With the Wind | 3rd -Jackson's Dixie |
#7 CHASING DAYLIGHT was a going away victress when facing starter foes on New Year's Eve Eve, giving this lightly raced mare three wins from her last four starts ( with the lone blemish coming when getting smacked around at the onset ). Chestnut lady accomplished such when breaking from an "outside-ish" type slot, and although we feel another tally is well within reach, it would behoove you to take a looksie during the warmups, as front wraps were added for the 1st time in that win. #1A SAIL WITH THE WIND hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but is 3:1-1-0 on the brown stuff, and is an obvious factor if sound & fully cranked up. #5 JACKSON'S DIXIE has always been an extremely steady sort, and receives an upgrade in the trainer dept. for today's first start in the big apple.
| Race 3 | 1st -Take Time to Dream | 2nd -The Honorable Eye | 3rd -Dramatic Effect |
#3 TAKE TIME TO DREAM has finished out of the superfecta but one time in her six race career, and although she immolated some baccala in the return, may have needed that race, and is now halved in price while retaining the jockey. Slight advantage. #5 THE HONORABLE EYE has been in absentia since the end of August, but was a hard trying runner up directly in front of a next out winner in her lone 1X try, and the adjusted Beyer from that day came back a 42.1 ( without the use of Lasix -- which is now a part of the makeup ) -- which is okay for this bunch. #2 DRAMATIC EFFECT by no means disgraced herself when completing the super @ 37-1 last out, so perhaps she's turned the corner a bit ( ? ).
| Race 4 | 1st -Night Effect | 2nd -Grandpa's Kid | 3rd -Centavo |
#4 NIGHT EFFECT put forth an honest effort when finishing 4th of 13 vs. this type a half month ago, and gets a jockey upgrade off of that. As for today's transition to two turns, this fella is 4:1-1-0 when doing such ( with the lone blemishes being before & after a layoff ), and we'll give him a tepid nod in a wide open event. #2 GRANDPA'S KID has been a different runner since getting into Persaud's barn ( 5:1-1-2-1 ), but could do with some pace to cut into. #3 CENTAVO blew up the tote board to the tune of $60 against cheaper back on the 4th and we'll chunk into the "unders".
| Race 5 | 1st -Please Be Nice | 2nd -Dr. Kraft | 3rd -Quick to Accuse |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 PLEASE BE NICE didn't quite get the pulse racing when returning off nearly a full calendar layoff, but we always like to be forgiving of pre & post L/O efforts, as perhaps something went awry beforehand and maybe they weren't fully cranked for the return ( plus, it's a good way to get some hidden value at times ). Blinkers are now a part of the makeup, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Mott have this one sitting on a good effort. #2 DR. KRAFT ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there ). has posted his two best efforts since coming back after a 3 1/2 month break, but being he seems to prefer the fringes, we'll keep beneath. #3 QUICK TO ACCUSE owns a 4:1-2-0 mark on a local fast strip & rounds out the top three. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 FORTUNE'S NEPHEW NOTE: AS OF 11:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Stamp of Approval | 2nd -Daughter of Time | 3rd -Sarir |
#5 STAMP OF APPROVAL gets her working papers this afternoon, and does such with a couple of top 8% gate moves on the docket, as well as a 371 Tomlinson figure for today's distance of ground. Of the four upstairs members of the family tree, two scored right outta the box, and two more were photogenic in their followup events. #7 DAUGHTER OF TIME put forth an honest showing when dueling on the front end right here two fortnights back, and can fare even better with today's better draw. #1 SARIR immolated some baccala when besting but one in the December lid lifter, but the two who came out of that race posted a win & a placing ( in a stakes ) when next facing the starter, with both improving by 6 pts.. Gal gets the miracle drug for the first time, as well.
| Race 7 | 1st -Dads Good Runner | 2nd -Bargaining Power | 3rd -Grand Again |
#6 DADS GOOD RUNNER has yet to ever gain ground in the lane in his 20 starts to date, but posted an adjusted 70.2 two starts back, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman for today's cutback to one turn. The Fish has won but two races over her last five years, but some of her stock have been outrunning their odds over the last few months, and we'll swing away. #1A BARGAINING POWER owns a 6:1-3-1 mark on the sand, and makes all kinds of sense off the recent placing. #8 GRAND AGAIN put it all together in start number 16, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while. Note the showing the only time he was last to load. NOTE: AS OF 11:0, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Coppa Girl | 2nd -Toned Up | 3rd -I Feel the Need |
#7 COPPA GIRL posted an adjusted 87.3 the last time she went from one turn to two, and right off the bat, anything even close to that would lay over this allotment. We like that said result came when breaking from an outsideish slot, and she can definitely make amends after the last two money burning events. #1 TONED UP came along honestly to pick up 20% of the pot vs. slightly tougher on Dec. 28th and makes all kinds of sense once again. #4 I FEEL THE NEED can complete the Babe Ruth triple based on a decent placing when going up against what we consider to be a bit tougher.
| Race 9 | 1st -Charles J | 2nd -This Time Yes | 3rd -Quiet Wisdom |
We were on the #7 CHARLES J the first time he was entered in New York, but was scratched that day. We followed it up by placing him on top in the December 29th deal, but after being somewhat overbet, got smacked around at the onset before taking the overland route over a track he didn't seem to dig. Grey gelding goes over a glib surface for the first time, and we see that four who finished in front of this one came back to go 4:2-0-0-1 in their ( three different ) followups, and Cancel broke out of his slump with a pair on Friday. #10 THIS TIME YES is in a 2nd off the bench/2nd time fast track spot, and the 397 Tommy is hefty enough for us to chunk in -- especially at 30-1. #1 QUIET WISDOM has yet to miss a superfecta finish, and T.P. wipes the competition clean w/locally based mdspwt. sand starters who were 1-2-3 8 to 50 days in the rear at 10-1 or less ( ridden by this jock & getting Lasix ). He's 10:-5-5-0 with that sort, and boasts a $2.18 ROI.
Aqueduct 35-167 ( $300.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-7 ( 14.3% ) Favorite's Win % 55-167 ( 32.9% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
