Just a pair of chalky winners yesterday ( along with a Beatable Favorite ), but it was a profitable week, as we continue to best the takeout rate this meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Miss Fashionista | 2nd -Malu | 3rd -Accelerina |
#3 MISS FASHIONISTA has been a $250,000 flop for Repole, as this gal had the white flag run up for 30K last time out, and after a placing that day, is up for sale once again this afternoon. Slight edge in today's 3rd off the layoff/2nd time fast track attempt. #5 MALU has improved with each passing sand start, and this uncoupled entrymate with the above figures prominent once again. #4 ACCELERINA outran her parimutual offering when placing at this level two back, and may be overlooked a bit after the recent disappointment vs. tougher.
| Race 2 | 1st -Just Call Ray | 2nd -Magnolia Midnight | 3rd -Inspeightoftrainer |
#1 JUST CALL RAY takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for a double sawski on the 3rd, but the pre claim jock returns ( something we always like to see ), and that pilot is on a 6:4-1-1 run for this outfit in one turn dirt deals @ 11-1 or less ( $10, $19, $8 & $6 ). #2 MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT has always been a win machine on the main ( 6 of 13 ), and that includes being three of four at this dx., along with being 3:1-0-1-1 in 2nd off the shelf engagements. Toss in a 2-2 mark beneath today's helmsman for the head. #4 INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER has done his best work beneath the seagulls, and can land a share. NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-6-3.
| Race 3 | 1st -Starship Defiant | 2nd -Collect Dattt | 3rd -Mursal |
#3 STARSHIP DEFIANT tossed in an unexplainable clunker last time out as the stick favorite, but the penultimate outing was just fine and dandy. We'll give her a chance to make amends, especially with the sweet declining dirt mark of 30:8-5-3. Oh yeah, from a DRF Formulator point of view, shedrow is 5 fer 13 with locally based mid level dirt entrants who missed the $ < 38 days back ( ridden by today's pilot ), and the payoffs were $3, $8, $13, $16 & $11. #6 COLLECT DATTT may be passed over by some due to the low percentage connections, but filly closed out the exacta at 10-1 the one time she returned off a sabbatical, and just may take to the brown stuff. #1 MURSAL has been a completely different equine since switching back to the sand ( 8:3-1-3-1 ), and we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude. NOTE: AS OF 3:38 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-1-5.
| Race 4 | 1st -Bells Tolling | 2nd -Dame Catherine | 3rd -Khali's Storm |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 BELLS TOLLING is in a "2nd time Lasix/2nd time Blinkers/2nd time fast track" scenario here, and in the weakest race they run on the grounds, that just may be enough to get her over the hump in this spot. #5 DAME CATHERINE ( who should be no worse than 3rd here ) has hit the board in her last pair, which pretty much makes her Zenyatta vs. these. #2 KHALI'S STORM as bad as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-2-3.
| Race 5 | 1st -Shoopthereitis | 2nd -Memento Mi | 3rd -Maggie |
#2 SHOOPTHEREITIS has been kept in prison since the New Year's Eve claim/flop, and has blinks added while toting the lightest impost of her career. Expecting this one to be more forwardly placed. Mild choice. #1 MEMENTO MI has been freshened up a bit, and is 2 for 10 when breaking from the innermost three slots ( 0-7 otherwise ). #5 MAGGIE has never seen these depths & digs the trip and strip. Note the one for two record underneath today's captain.
| Race 6 | 1st -Gum Island | 2nd -Heard On TheStreet | 3rd -Shamrock Shake |
#6 GUM ISLAND is a $125,000 homebred who's done zilch to get the pulse racing thus far, and is now given up on by the connections. We like that there's been no gaps in the worktab since last seen on December 8th, and this one now takes the biggest drop in the game. In regards to that last part, Mott is a saucy 5:4-1-0 when doing that to his dirt horsies off L/O's of 49-77 days, and there's a 1-1 sub cat with today's rider astride. #1 HEARD ON THESTREET is wheeled right back after finishing next to last a half'a dozen days ago, and rates a punchers' chance if able to get back to the bow. #7 SHAMROCK SHAKE gets an "Around the World" treatment today: Juice, drop, and lost his tes-tee-klees. Would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression in this spot. NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-7-5.
| Race 7 | 1st -D'ont Lose Cruz | 2nd -Dutrow entry | 3rd -Jemography |
This listed troika should suffice for all our rolling action. #7 D'ONT LOSE CRUZ has some decent early zip, owns some nice experience over this oval, and Double D is a tight four fer six with Ozone Park based dirt starters at this level off absences of 32-42 days ( 14-1 or beneath ), and those winnahs came back $5, $6 & $7 x 2. Both the #1 TEN CENT TOWN ( two for four at today's distance of ground ), and #1A BIG ENGINE ( monster fig in the most recent ) comprise decent factions of the coupled entry. #9 JEMOGRAPHY sheds 32 oz. off a sharp showing vs. what we consider to have been a tougher grouping, and as this one has historically been better over a glib surface, you can feel free to upgrade that # a bit.
| Race 8 | 1st -Bobby the Tank | 2nd -Best Bet | 3rd -G Munning |
#6 BOBBY THE TANK goes from starter foes to conditional platers for today's 3rd start off the bench. gelding found the line first the only time he had was up for grabs, and rates the meekest of selections in a nitecap that's a bit tough to decipher. #3 BEST BET has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but is another who got his Polaroid taken the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his tooshie, and the lone win for this six year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) came in his sole try at the trip. #10 G MUNNING sheds 4 lb.'s off an honest placing, and as that was his finest effort yet over a wet track, can move up should it now be fast.
Aqueduct 37-176 ( $300.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-8 ( 12.5% ) Favorite's Win % 57-176 ( 32.4% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
