2/17 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Profitable three bagger on the day for us yesterday ( $9, $3 & $7 ), along with a cold Triple of $56 and an Ice Cold $24 Exacta, as we continue to best the takeout on the meet. 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #9 Ghostbustin

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

We start out the day with three decent sets of DRF Fomulator stats to start out the day, so let's get to 'em in a no frills manner.  #2 MO DAMORNINGGROUCH has shown improved early hoof since returning off a 3 1/2 month sabbatical, and 14% clan is a snappy 8:4-2-1-1 with maiden claiming dirt dashers right here ( getting Lasix ) at 18-1 or less ( $16, $7 x 2 & $6 ), and there's a sub cat of one for one with this bug. #7 FIRST CLASS CAT is another zippy sort who goes over a glib surface for just the second time, and Kimmel ( 13% on the norm ) clicks at a 6 for 15 rate with sand stock at this level ( getting the miracle drug ) right here, off breaks of 23-50 days. The ROI for that study is $2.46, and there's a sub category of 2 fer 4 w/ the ladies. #3 DREAMING OF CARLI has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but 11% barn nearly triples that rate ( 3-10 ) with maiden claiming dirt dashers getting Lasix at 27-1 or less ( $39, $4 & $5 ). 

After getting two sub par rides beneath Cancel, #2 GENERAL BANKER missed getting 3rd place money in a stakes last time out by only a noggin, and game trier ( 14:2-2-3-3 on the sand ), has more than outperformed his $7,500 breeding price thus far for Jimmy Ferarro. And as for that trainer, he happens to be a crisp 11:5-3-0 with Ozone Park based optional dirt entrants wearing the hood, off L/O's of 38 days or < ( 17-1 or > ). The mutuels for that sampling were a FAT $31, $28, $21 7 $5 x 2, and there's a smaller stat of two for two beneath this jock. #5 BOURBON CHASE comes in today off of back to back career best figs, and tho a chronic nibbler at The Big A, has done fairly well at today's distance of ground. #4 COLLOQUY is 4:2-0-1 when made available for purchase, but as there was a claim voided last time out, it would behoove you to take a looksie in the paddock. 

#4 MOULY flopped in the slop last time out, but if you can feel free to draw a line through that, then what you have is a pair of solid efforts just prior. From a trainer stat point of view, Double-D is 3 for 6 with AQU based allowance dirt sprinters who missed the $ less than 44 days in the rear @ 20-1 or undah. There's a positive return on investment with that sort, and a 2 of 3 sub category with today's helmsman astride. #1 ANILEATE has proven to be yet another solid claim by Ferraro, as he has upped this one's avg. speed figures on both the dirt & the turf since the purchase, while cashing five checks along the way. There's a nice trainer statistic also, as the aforementioned Tr. has won 7 of 18 times with female allowance dirt critters who crashed the fiesta 15-43 days in the past beneath the 10-1 watermark ( $8, $9, $5, $10, $15 & $4 x 2 ). #2 LINCOLNVILLE BEACH has won her only start over this oval, and that's reason enough to include. 

#2 MYTOWN MYRULES has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but has never seen these depths, and despite the poor form, is supported by a decent trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, this outfit is 4 for 8 with AQU based mid level dirt horses ridden by today's rider ( $8, $5 & $4 x 2 ), and we'll make this one a tepid nod in a deal with but one first draft tossout. #3 YANKEE AGATE has only bested six in her last triad, but has the "For Sale" sticker attached to her butt for the first time, and switches from a bug to a vet. #5 GHOSTLY GIRL as good as any for the show dough.   NOTE: AS OF 4:59 THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUT TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 10:11, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-5-6.

Not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly.  #2 AGILITY played the fade in his 2nd off the layoff deal, but goes from a bug rider to a journeyman in this spot, and that pilot has guided this one to six superfecta finishes from their seven pairings ( with the lone blemish coming just before an extended break ). Definitely ask for some value with this notorious nibbler. #1 YOUBETTERBEJOKING is confidently hiked in class after being claimed from a 16K placing back in early January, and must be left in the mix after the last two. #3 RED D G P ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ), has closed out the exacta in two of three second off the shelf engagements and can grab a piece. 

#7 PERNO showed marked improvement when having the miracle drug administered second time out, and while a bounce is always possible after something like that, this chap is actually a tad better bred for a fast track, so maybe an improvement can be in the offering. When it comes to his Queens based mdspwt dirt runners getting the "Big L" ( 32-50 days ), Bond has the golden gun, as he's four for eight ( incl. 1-1 with Rivera ). #6 IRISH TENOR outran his odds when placing in this race in his debut, but the decent pedigree says it was likely not an aberration, and must be left in the hopper. #4 IRIE MAN hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in either foray, but Baker is 2 for 5 with those of this ilk who missed the money less than a month ago ( 31-1 or beneath ), and the winnahs paid $8 & $15.  NOTE: AS OF 10:15, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-6-3.

#1 GHALIA PRINCESS ( also spotted today at Oaklawn ) got up in time to win by a noggin in the Bayou three weeks back, and the top flight bloodlines say that the result was likely no fluke. She has an extra panel to sort things out from today's inside placement, and J/T combo fare well together. Clan does wellwith 2nd timers under these conditions coming in off a maiden tally ( $8 & $3 x 2 ). Slimmest of margins in a wide open Ruthless. #5 LOW SOCIETY has done very little wrong thus far ( 4:2-0-2 ), and has had to leave a forwarding address after two of those events. Logical. #7 VALUE AREA has yet to miss teh board, and who are we to rock that boat.   NOTE: AS OF 5:03 THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

#8 MIM has cashed three minor checks after being claimed for the good Dr. Messina 3+ months ago, and his trainer ( who conditioned Sanctuary City ) is a large 23:9-3-3-3 with 4 & up Aqu. based female allowance dirt animals, who were 1-2-3 10-41 days in the rear ( 22-1 or below ). There's a $2.73 R.O.I. with that sort, and note the best of 65 bullet breeze since the last. #3 EASY PLAY is a bit out of form of late, but gets in light, and the 4:1-0-2 record when toting 118 or less is cause enough to include at a price. #1 TRUE EMPRESS has won a third of her career starts ( including the only time she was first to load ), and what the hell's wrong with that?   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 GHOSTBUSTIN

#1 GOLDEN ROCKET is 4:1-1-2 when breaking from the pine, and is reunited with a pilot that she's had some nice success with ( including a $69 winner where we had her on top up in the Spa a year and a half ago. Mare has done okay here as well, and may be a bit of an overlay after the recent disappointment. #6 KANT HURRY LOVE has been a gem of consistency since starting things out in 2021, as she's missed the superfecta but one time, and also seems to dig the local seagulls. Bay mare id one of three off a respite, and bot returnees from the last game back to win -- essentially replicating the prior Beyers. Watch out. #4 GONE AND FORGOTTEN is another steady sort, and has handled the downstate transition honestly enough. 

After closing out the triple vs. tougher in both starts since being claimed for 16K three back, #4 MEMPHIS is nor dropped back down that level, in hopes of getting back that bread -- and a little bit more. Most humdrum of selections in the nitecap. #1 BARGAINING POWER is on a decent 6:1-3-1 skein, and has done okay from inside-ish slots. #9 ICE ROAD needs a win for the connex to merely lose a few grand off the purchase in November, should another claim ensue, so you'd have to think he'd be fully cranked up.  NOTE: AS OF 10:19, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-entry-6.

Aqueduct 40-184 ( $318.90 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-8 ( 12.5% ) Favorite's Win % 60-184 ( 32.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout