Yet another profitable day for us yesterday, with a three bagger ( $13, $15 & $6 ), two Rolling Pick Threes ( $477 & $318 ), a $101 cold Double, a $35 cold Exacta, a $14 cold Quinella, and a successful Beatable Favorite. We continue to best the takeout for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Brown entry | 2nd -Carolo Rapido | 3rd -Eusebius |
Both the #1 TIMING DIFFERENCE ( who improved from his first start to the followup, despite being hiked in class ) and the #1A UNIQUE INSIGHT ( another who did better in the secondary dirt engagement ) comprise decent factions of the Chad Brown coupled entry. They are both getting Lasix for the first time, and are backed by tidy but tight DRF Formulator stats that has the aforementioned shotcaller at 3 for 3 when having his sand stock go long for the first time off breaks of 48-50 days ( $4, $6 & $7 ). #5 CAROLO RAPIDO showed zilch in the bow, but is bred for good things and we wouldn't be surprised to see some improvement. #4 EUSEBIUS ( a 3rd century historian of Christianity, who's story can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eusebius ) posted a hefty adjusted figaro in the dirt debut, and did it without the use of Lasix, which is now a part of the makeup.
| Race 2 | 1st -Anna's Wish | 2nd -Progeny | 3rd -Antenna |
#2 ANNA'S WISH lays over this group from a speed figure aspect, and gets the miracle drug for the first time. #6 PROGENY is a zippy sort who should move up in today's second off the claim/second off the layoff try. #1 ANTENNA found the line first the only time she was entered for this price, and gets the "Big L" for the first time.
| Race 3 | 1st -Cheeky Tico | 2nd -Union Lights | 3rd -Disappearance |
#7 CHEEKY TICO comes in today off a pair of career best numeros, and although he's a notorious nibbler, we dig the 3:2-0-1 ledger when last to load, which stands out quite favorably against the 18:0-3-6 mark otherwise. Should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there. #2 UNION LIGHTS appears to have the best chance of upsetting the applecart based on today's drop in class, along with owning a better mark at today's distance than anything else. #4 DISAPPEARANCE has been awful over the last troika, but wears blinkers over a fast track for the first time and could spice things up beneath.
| Race 4 | 1st -Hot Candy | 2nd -Princess Vino | 3rd -Autumn's Turn |
No first draft eliminations in this six pack, so tread lightly. #1 HOT CANDY bested but one in the Oldsmar overture, but despite that, is confidently shipped northward for a crack at $42,000 more in purse money. T.P. rolls right along with his locally based dirt runners at this level who missed the board 30-50 days back ( getting juice ) going 2X for the first time. He's 3 for 4 w/ that sort ( $4 & $10 x 2 ), and draws snugly. #6 PRINCESS VINO ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) has yet to miss the board, and who are we to rock that boat. #2 AUTUMN'S TURN as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 5 | 1st -Devilly | 2nd -Lady Banker | 3rd -Pauciloquent |
#5 DEVILLY has always been a notorious nibbler, but gal has outrun her odds in three of the last four treks to the frontside, drops down the ladder off a decent showing, and her lone tally came beneath the seagulls. From a trainer stat point of view, Ferraro is a poyfect three of three with AQU based mid level dirt gals who were 1-2-3 a month back or less ( $4, $6 & $14 ). #2 LADY BANKER is one for two at the trip, but 8/5 is awfully tough to take here. Mixed signals. #7 PAUCILOQUENT hung up a lifetime best fig the only time she was in a second off the bench spot, and has never seen these depths. Watch out.
| Race 6 | 1st -Eric From Miami | 2nd -Mama's Dream | 3rd -Irie Man |
#1A ERIC FROM MIAMI takes the biggest drop in the game for today's 2nd off the shelf jamboree, and goes over a glib surface for the second time. Mild of selections in a heat that's hard to hug. #7 MAMA'S DREAM has bested but three in as many calls to the post, but showed improved speed when returning off a sabbatical, and could move up today. #3 IRIE MAN ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) catches a track labeled FST for the 1st time, and is second time wonder drug this afternoon. Seems like we're angling a bit in this race, doesn't it ?
| Race 7 | 1st -Daddy Knows | 2nd -Ministerial | 3rd -Pit Boss |
#9 DADDY KNOWS burned a bit of bread when merely finishing 3rd at 8/5 on Jan. 26th, but a wet track isn't necessarily his deal, and as a matter of fact, you can adjust the BSF from that outing by +9.4%. #6 MINISTERIAL is two of three off the bench on the main, but one of those wins was in a race where the claim was voided, so it would behoove you to take a looksie pre race. FWIW, Ward is 4 of 7 with dirt dashers at this level who won > 50 days ago, and those who were victorious paid $5 x 3 & $4. #10 PIT BOSS as good as any for the show bread.
| Race 8 | 1st -My Mane Squeeze | 2nd -Bernietakescharge | 3rd -Baroness Bourbon |
#10 MY MANE SQUEEZE ( who we were on for the maiden breaker ), returned from a 2 1/2 month hibernation to win in game fashion against similar type right here, and while a bounce is always possible, we dig the draw enough to spot her on top once again. #2 BERNIETAKESCHARGE ( a solid place play today ) has gone 50-64-69-84 in her dirt forays thus far, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #3 BARONESS BOURBON was a daylight clear runner up the one time she went over a fast surface, and we believe she still has plenty of upside.
| Race 9 | 1st -Watch Hill | 2nd -Good Reunion | 3rd -Friday I'm In Love |
We're looking to close out the day in Ruthian fashion with the ol' 7-1-4 tri. #7 WATCH HILL immolated some baccala when finishing off the board on the 26th of January, but perhaps a wet track just ain't this one's deal, as his two biggest #'s came over a fast surface, while two of his worst three occurred on one with moisture in it. J/T combo have done well in Queens, and we'll give him a chance to make amends. #1 GOOD REUNION has been kept in prison since the snag 45 days in the rear, and returns at the level ( and placing ) from that day. Sensible. #4 FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE has encountered trouble in each affair, and plunges for today;s 3rd start off the break.
Aqueduct 43-194 ( $350.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-9 ( 11.1% ) Favorite's Win % 64-194 ( 33.2% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
