Another solid day for us here yesterday as we had the following:
-- SIX winners of $6, $5, $4, $8 & $3 x 2
--Two Rolling Pick Fours of $225 & $145
--Three Ice Cold Exactas of $11, $15 & $27
--Three cold Doubles of $15, $10 & $14
--A $34 cold Triple
--...and a $12 Quinella Box, as we are still besting the takeout rate on the stand, while having won 9 of our last 19 races.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #3 Augustine Red
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Shasi | 2nd -Strange Fruit | 3rd -Afilada |
Not really feeling the mojo here, so tread lightly. #4 SHASI is fleet afoot, but has failed to gain ground in the lane in her last quintet, so right off the bat, be sure to have the Pepto handy. That being said, she couldn't find softer competition for this condition, and may go all the way if able to set some soft splits. ( Or may not -- what the hell do we know. ) #2 STRANGE FRUIT made every call a winning one in procuring the sheepskin over this oval on New Year's Eve Eve, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while. The fact that this miss can handle inside-ish slots, adds to the allure. #3 AFILADA is a nibbler by rote, but still, you have to admire the 17 superfecta finishes from 19 career starts, and gal was a solid and well clear runner up, the only other time she toted anything even close to this tonnage.
| Race 2 | 1st -Jacobsen entry | 2nd -Life Changer | 3rd -Tetsu |
Both the #1 KINGDOM ( who went all the way against slightly tougher, and is supported by a 3 for 7 trainer stat, which has this barn at just that with their locally based sand sprinters who won < 17 days ago & are 9-1 or beneath -- $10 x 2 & $6 ), and #1A BEACHWALKER ( an honest placing in the most recent ) comprise decent factions of the Jacobsen entry. #2 LIFE CHANGER has hit the board in 6 of 8 right here and can do such once again. #7 TETSU takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for 32K back on the 9th, but the pre claim pilot returns ( something we always dig ), and the 16 ITM finishes from 19 calls to the post are not without notice.
| Race 3 | 1st -Honorable Lily | 2nd -Just a Nuquist | 3rd -Vintage |
#3 HONORABLE LILY popped and stopped in the comebacker, but may have needed that race, and this lady had hung up a decent ( for this grouping ) quartet of speed figures prior to the sabbatical. Hungry rider ensures an honest effort. #8 JUST A NYQUIST is 3 of 12 here ( oh fer 9 elsewhere ), switches from an apprentice to a journeyman, and has never seen these depths. Completely logical. #2 VINTAGE gets an upgrade in the saddle today, and rates a shot if able to get back to the penultimate try. NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -I Got Busted | 2nd -Badlands Ruler | 3rd -Solo in Paris |
#2 I GOT BUSTED went coast to coast like butter and toast right outta the box, and the 406 Tomlinson figure says to us that the result was likely no fluke. Big difference in getting to the top from the outside, and doing it from the two hole, but with no abundance of speed signed on, he should be able to get up front early on. #6 BADLANDS RULER went all the way in his sole "second off the break" jammie, and is in a 2nd time Lasix scenario this afternoon. Can't fault those taking a favorable view. #1 SOLO IN PARIS has been away since the troubled stakes deal, but posted a solid numero in the maiden breaker prior to that, and Randi heating up a bit for his favorite time of the year. NOTE: AS OF 5:27 P.M. SUNDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 AUGUSTINE RED more than fills the bill, as Rice is not nice with her locally based optional male sand stock who were IN the money less than 44 days ago, as she's a grotesque 0-26 in that regards.
| Race 5 | 1st -Bon Adieu | 2nd -Midtown Lights | 3rd -Freddymo Factor |
#4 BON ADIEU has been a completely different animal since beginning her working life in so-so fashion, as she enters today on a 5:3-2-0 skein, and put forth a legit showing the only time she was in a third off the bench engagement two spots behind a next out victress. Race goes through her. #8 MIDTOWN LIGHTS likely was in need of the most recent, and chestnut runner happened to get her Polaroid taken the one time she was in a second off the L/O spot. She does have a bit of back class, but will take a bit of a pounding at the windows. #3 FREDDYMO FACTOR has done her best work at The Big A, and the ol' grey mare can land a share.
| Race 6 | 1st -One More Brew | 2nd -Clem Labine | 3rd -Cajun Casanova |
#8 ONE MORE BREW has been in the rear with the gear for his last duet, but drops in class for the second straight time, and jock ( who has hit his stride after a slow start in the States ) scored at a nice price for this shedrow recently. Note the 4:3-0-1 ledger at today's distance. Hmmmmmm..... #2 CLEM LABINE has been out of form since the summer, but is halved in price and goes from an apprentice to a vet. #5 CAJUN CASANOVA will be led over by a trainer who's won with half of his six freshly purchased sand dashers at this level ( & locale ), who missed the baccala last out ( ridden by this jock ).
| Race 7 | 1st -Towhead | 2nd -Give Me Kisses | 3rd -Taming the Tigress |
Draw a line through the stakes tries by #8 TOWHEAD, and what you have is a gal who had won two straight on the sand, with one of those occurring the only time she returned off a true hibernation. J/T combination have been positively crushing it here, but you better be damn sure to examine this one pre-race. Oh, FWIW, Maker is three of four with AQU sprinters on the main at this level, off absences of more than 50 days ( $7 & $10 x 2 ). #6 GIVE ME KISSES has been freshened up a tad since burning some bread in mid December, but is two of three right here, and one of those tallies came after being away. #5 TAMING THE TIGRESS has won three of the four times she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her butt; Watch out, suckahs !!
| Race 8 | 1st -Snarky | 2nd -Mother Mary | 3rd -Miss Bourbon |
#8 SNARKY has done absolutely nothing to get the pulse racing thus far, and $115,000 purchase is dropped down the ladder for the second straight time. Three yr. old is reacquainted with eye cups for today's second start with the miracle drug, and we'll give her the nod in hopes of being able to perform the "Killer Crossover". #7 MOTHER MARY gets juice for the 1st time and sheds a bit of tonnage as well. #6 MISS BOURBON takes the biggest drop in the land for today's 1st spin with eye cups, and needn't be much to make an impression in the weakest race they have on this circuit.
Aqueduct 49-203 ( $380 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-9 ( 11.1% ) Favorite's Win % 70-203 ( 34.5% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
