Another profitable day on Monday in yet another profitable week, as we continue to best the takeout on the meet,
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #4 Petulante
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Shirl's Delight | 2nd -Split Screen | 3rd -Quiescent |
#1 SHIRL'S DELIGHT is quite the transient sort, as this miss starts for her 6th different trainer in her last 7 treks to the frontside, but the good news is that today's shotcaller is a decent two for five with those off breaks of 52-89 days ( getting juice ) at 15-1 or less. The winners came back $13 & $5, and gal just may sit a good trip. #3 SPLIT SCREEN was given a chance to "Get his mind right" after finishing in the rear with the gear first time out, but returns with the same pilot while getting the wonder drug for the first time. #2 QUIESCENT closed out the triple at 21-1 the only time she started on a glib surface, and comes in off a solid placing directly in front of a next out victress.
| Race 2 | 1st -Saka Shaka | 2nd -Flying in Style | 3rd -Paschal Moon |
#5 SAKA SHAKA begins his working life this afternoon, and not a minute too soon, after being on the worktab for nearly a year to the day. A few of those works aren't half bad, and this one's a half to Varda, who's gone 6:2-1-3 thus far, and that includes a win right outta the box, as well as having won the G1 Starlet. Bug 3 for 6 when riding for Brown. #6 FLYING IN STYLE flopped in the slop, but owns a few decent running lines aside from that, and sheds 80 oz. today. #7 PASCHAL MOON was a daylight clear runner up when facing similar @ 13-1 last out, and makes all kinds of sense. NOTE: AS OF 1:24 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 3 | 1st -Roman Goddess | 2nd -Honest Banker | 3rd -My Girl Jal |
#2 ROMAN GODDESS is showing a bit of a "Z" pattern from the most recent, as she lost five lengths from the half to the top of the stretch, before gaining back 1/2 of that amount from then to the line. Gal has hit the board in five of six attempts right here, and was a going away winner the only time she had a "For Sale" stickah attached to her tooshie. #6 HONEST BANKER is a bit of a fragile sort, but digs it here, and went all the way the only time she returned from a sabbatical, while accomplishing the same in her one heat when up for grabs. #7 MY GIRL JAL has won two of her last three when in for a tag, and they both came at today's distance of ground.
| Race 4 | 1st -Sweet as Sugar | 2nd -Cupid's Girl | 3rd -Darn That Song |
#3 SWEET AS SUGAR had a bit of a troubled trip when bringing up the rear vs. slightly tougher last out, but we're assuaged by the fact that Shivmangel ( 8% day to day ) is a large and in charge 4 fer 6 with AQU based mid level dirt entrants ridden by Maragh, off L/O's of 3 weeks or less ( 30-1 or beneath ). The winners in that study came back a healthy $62, $12 & $9 x 2, and we dig the 4:2-1-1 ledger when breaking from the outermost two slots. #4 CUPID'S GIRL comes in off a claim/win when going up against somewhat softer last month, and we always like to see a pre-snag jock come back. #6 DARN THAT SONG is 3 for 17 at this dist. and that compares favorably against her oh-fer-six record otherwise.
| Race 5 | 1st -Wake Surf | 2nd -Gentleman Joe | 3rd -Emerald Forest |
Both the #6 WAKE SURF and our 3rd selection, #5 EMERALD FOREST, are backed by identical DRF Formulator statistics, which has this barn clicking at a 4 for 7 rate with optional dirt sprinters off breaks of 51-58 days ( $3, $6, $13 & $5 ). We have the former on top because of his 3:1-0-1 boxscore off a break in the action. #1 GENTLEMAN JOE has partaken in the super in four straight and eight of nine, & getting in light is of some importance, as he's a neck shy of having an unblemished three fer three mark when toting 117 or less. NOTE: AS OF 1:18, THURSDAY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-6-5. NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish ! ), DUE TO A SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Co Conspirator | 2nd -Wild Banker | 3rd -Bold Medication |
Not really feeling the love here, so tread lightly. #4 CO CONSPIRATOR has outrun his odds over the last pair, and while he doesn't look like much, if you go back far enough, you'll see that he is a snazzy 3:2-0-1 when going from one turn to two ( $17 & $9 ). #2 WILD BANKER is 6 of 24 beneath the seagulls ( 1 for 17 at other venues ), drops to a never before seen level, and is one of four when stretching out like this. #1 BOLD MEDICATION tossed in a clunker last time out, but we dig that the recent two times he finished off the board, he responded w/a win in the followup.
| Race 7 | 1st -Synthesis | 2nd -Guntown | 3rd -Dance Code |
#1 SYNTHESIS displayed some newfound early dash when nearly going all the way at 19-1 vs. somewhat weaker at the end of December, and slides in to the pine today, which is fine by us, as he owns a wicked shahp 4 for 7 record when loading first on the main. From a trainer stat POV, this shedrow has a 10:6-1-1-1 boxscore with Aqu. based dirt horsies at this level that were 1-2-3 15 to 48 days in the rear @ 10-1 or beneath ( $4.82 return on investment. #8 GUNTOWN is a very consistent sort who comes in having scored twice in his last quartet, but aside from that, we took note of his sweet 7:3-2-0 mark at today's dist., which stands out in stark contrast to him being 16:1-4-3 @ other trips. #7 DANCE CODE didn't show a whole heck of a lot in the comebacker, but has been a part of the super in 4 of 5 2nd off the layoff spots, & may jazz things up underneath. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 PETULANTE fills the bill, as Dutrow is 0-8 in all relevant categories.
| Race 8 | 1st -Swept | 2nd -Lil' Lang | 3rd -Profitability |
One thing we dig about the DRF Formulator platorm is that sometimes it can give us angles with trainers that we may not even give a second glance to at times. ( A great way to ferret out bombs as well. ) We have a decent number with 6% Ricardo Legall in today's nitecap, with #1 SWEPT. At first glance, this one's recent form looks grisly, but hey, maybe he just doesn't dig the slop, ya know ? Plus, with maidens, we like to go anywhere in their PP's to find something positive, and we see that on October 22nd, he posted an adjusted 54.8 -- and did it at a higher level, and without the use of Lasix, which is now a part of the makeup. BTW, isn't it interesting that this horse got bet down to 5-1 that day, with Javy seeing fit to ride. Okay, now to the angle. Over the last 60 months, the aforementioned bossman is 5:3-1-1 with maiden claiming sand sprinters off L/O's of < five weeks at 41-1 or below, and just look at these prices -- $84, $63 & $13 !! Bug gave a nice rail ride to get 3rd place money for Jimmy Ferraro a couple'a weeks back, and looked okay in doing such. Hmmm.... #6 LIL' LANG has played the fade in both heats to date, but has the wonder drug and a hood added today, and we're thinking the latter was affixed for that bullet gate move back on the 9th. HUGE shot on today's dropdown. #4 PROFITABILITY slides down the ladder for the 3rd straight time, and with today's blinker removal, must be chunked in.
Aqueduct 51-211 ( $399.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-10 ( 20% ) Favorite's Win % 72-211 ( 34.1% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
