Skunked.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 Eastern Star
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Foxy Cara | 2nd -Krystalheir | 3rd -Eastern Star |
It is with a solid pinching of the nose that we make #6 FOXY CARA our top selection, as although she is consistent ( on an 11:M-3-6-2 run of late ), she does in fact give the impression of being a bit of a professional maiden. Gal sheds a couple of pounds and should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. We see #1 KRYSTALHEIR as having the best shot of upsetting the applecart here, based on the two solidly adjusted speed figures way back when ( as with maidens, we look anywhere to find something positive. #3 EASTERN STAR was a well beaten but decently clear runner up in the goo last time out, and if you prorate that to her best fig on a glib surface, you end up with someone who should be in the exotics. NOTE: AS OF 5:26 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 EASTERN STAR DOESN'T MAKE OUR FIRST CUT, SO WHY WOULD WE ACCEPT 7/5 ?
| Race 2 | 1st -Kid's Last Laugh | 2nd -Amaretti | 3rd -Risk Free |
#1A KID'S LAST LAUGH shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and as we consider today a drop in class off the most recent tally, we see no reason that another photo can't be taken today. #5 AMARETTI hasn't been seen in more than nine flips of the calendar, but lightly raced 5YO won by a bunch the only time he returned off a sabbatical, and the recent worktab signals readiness. #2 RISK FREE is a notorious nibblah, as the 22:1-10-7 mark belies, and looks like an excellent "unders" candidate.
| Race 3 | 1st -Chantilly Road | 2nd -Colorful Lady | 3rd -Growth Rate |
#2 CHANTILLY ROAD played the fade after pressing the early pace in her Oldsmar debut, but given the fact that she's shipped up here for more than double that pot, it tells us that perhaps she wasn't expected to win that day. 375 Tomlinson figure, along with this one being a half to current day Grade Three winner Five Star General -- who broke his maiden second time out -- ( 684 K ) tells us that this one is eligible to improve. #5 COLORFUL LADY is another shipping up from the Sunshine State after a disappointing lid lifter, and has excellent pedigree for today's surface switch. #3 GROWTH RATE put forth an honest showing after a five month hibernation, and can move forward with that under her belt in today's first start on a track labeled FST.
| Race 4 | 1st -Notah | 2nd -Seeking Unity | 3rd -Magical Ways |
#8 NOTAH enters today off a lifetime best #, and as it came over a wet track, we prorated it to his best adjusted numbah on a fast track,and what we came up with was a similar 84.7 BSF. From a DRF Formulator point of view, 15% Terranover nealy triples that rate with his allowance dirt critters who score 8-50 days back, as he's 7:3-1-2-1 w/that sort ( $18, $11 & $16 ), and there's a sub category of two for three with Gomez astride. #1 SEEKING UNITY takes the mandatory hike in class after snag/win on 1/28, and new trainer had a solid day on Monday. #3 MAGICAL WAYS ( uncoupled barnmate with 'Unity ) has done his best work at today's distance of ground and can land a share.
| Race 5 | 1st -Divine Cross | 2nd -Good Penny | 3rd -Jolly Miss Jill |
#6 DIVINE CROSS makes the obligatory rise up the ladder after being bought for $12,500 on Jan. 28th, and aside from owning a sweet 3 for 9 local ledger, new bossman Ferraro ( who had a pair of winners last week ) has a nice trainer stat behind him. Over the last 1,826 days, he's a nifty 4:3-0-0-1 with freshly purchased Aqueduct dirt entrants at this level ( 25-1 or below ), off breaks of 13-40 days ( $14, $18 & $10 ). #8 GOOD PENNY hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but drops to an all time low, and of course we love the "declining" mark over a quick track. #10 JOLLY MISS JILL is another who has never seen these depths.
| Race 6 | 1st -Find Your Joy | 2nd -Rainingatthebeach | 3rd -Five to Two |
#8 FIND YOUR JOY took the biggest drop in the game when returning off a long break in the action, and responded with a lively ( and daylight clear ) placing over this oval. While a bounce is always possible, we're assuaged by the fact that this clan is ( from a tiny sampling ) two of three with Ozone Park based mdspwt. sand stock who crashed the fiesta 24-50 days in the rear ( while getting juice ). #4 RAININGATTHEBEACH gets her working papers today, and although the worktab is unispiring, a whopping 5 of 6 members of the family tree scored at first asking, with the sixth having closed out the exacta. #5 FIVE TO TWO has yet to miss the money, and who are we to rock that boat.
| Race 7 | 1st -Waralo | 2nd -Pineapple Man | 3rd -Donegal Surges |
#2 WARALO has been a gem of consistency after the disappointing overture, and while the majority of those efforts have occurred up at Canandaigua County, we like that he has performed more than adequately when sent to The Big A. According to Formulator, 'Miah has won with half if his six Queens based allowance sand starters who were 1-2-3 36 to 50 days in the rear @ 6-1 or less ( $5, $10 & $7 ). Big jockey upgrade in play, now. #3 PINEAPPLE MAN has been away since the end of August, but has hit the board in all three "true" tries off a L/O, and recognize the nicely tucked away bullet breeze last month. #7 DONEGAL SURGES was crazily bet down to favoritism after being in absentia for 15 months, but given the back class, we'll chunk in; demand a touch of value.
| Race 8 | 1st -Maker's Candy | 2nd -Dr. Ardito | 3rd -Whittington Park |
#8 MAKER'S CANDY shoots for the grand salami this afternoon, and as he's posted back to back lifetime figaros, right off the bat, we'd say it's a definite possibility ( Is that a mild oxymoron? ). Colt scored in going away fashion, the only time he was last to load, and boy, that 5:4-1-0 record at the dx. sure does stand out, doesn't it ? If you need more, we see that this one's namesake is a grooooovy 10:5-3-2 with ungraded sand sprinters who were photogenic 6-50 days back ( no Lasix ), with an R.O.I. of $3.58. #3 DR. ARDITO is three fo' four off an absence, and what the hell's wrong with that ? #2 WHITTINGTON PARK has been in the money in both 2nd off the break jammies, and seems to have a solid rapport beneath today's jock.
| Race 9 | 1st -Good Reunion | 2nd -Bingood to Knowya | 3rd -Four Eyes |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 GOOD REUNION ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there ) has partaken in the superfecta in all his maiden claiming starts to date, and sheds a couple'a lb.'s here. Stock goes up if the front wraps are removed. #3 BINGOOD TO KNOWYA has been in the HPP ( Horsewitness Protection Program ) for a year, but now has a "For Sale" sticker attached to her tooshie for the first time, and barn does okay with returnees of this sort. #10 FOUR EYES has a few decent running lines and may jazz things up a touch. NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct 51-219 ( $399.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-10 ( 20% ) Favorite's Win % 75-219 ( 34.3% )( As of Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
