2/25- Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

We look to right the ship in closing out the week today, but we're still besting the takeout on the stand.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #6 Bob John Ray

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#6 SARDIS ( a famous restaurant in Manhattan's theater district ) showed some nice improvement from his first start to the followup, and while a bounce is always possible in today's 2nd off the layoff/2nd time Lasix try, colt draws ideally once again, and we see that the initial try over a fast track was rife with trouble. #3 CUANDO ( By Not This Time -- ya get it ? ) was a lively runner up right outta the box for Levine, and being he's better bred for a glib surface, we wouldn't be surprised to see an improved effort. #4 STATES UNITED returned off a three month sabbatical with front wraps to split the field at the end of December, and has since lost his procreating ability. 

#3 GUANARE is a "Double Beyer Play", in such that both of this one's last two speed figures supersede anything that anyone else has posted thus far. Not really comprehending the 80K tag today off the three race win streak, so take a hard look in the paddock. #2 IRIDESCENT ( by 'City of Light' ) has yet to miss a superfecta, and that includes a 3:1-2-0 mark beneath the seagulls. #4 STOLEN MAGIC was in the rear with the gear when spotted in a stakes off the maiden breaker/layoff, but may have needed that, and now gets the wonder drug for the first time.   NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #3 HOT ROD RUMBLE played the fade in this race back on 1/5, but aside from that, is 4:2-2-0 over this oval, and deserves another chance at what may be a decent price given the most recent. #5 ANTHRACITE showed in a similar spot on the 3rd, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #6 MR BOB is a bit out of form, but owns a win and a third from as many starts when made available for purchase, and the just mentioned tally came off a break -- just like today. 

#3 AIN'T BROKE has performed "miracles" since being claimed by Linda Rice, in having won two of three ( after scoring in just 2 of 16 prior to that ), and included in that triad were two career best figaros. Needs a better ride from Cancel than going seven wide in a six horse event. #6 EVIDENCIAS (BRZ) drops in class out of a race where the pair who finished directly in front of her came back to win. Logical. #1 SELF ISOLATION has the quintessentially perfect "declining" mark on a track labeled FST ( 15:6-2-1 ), and found the line first in her lone dirt start off the pine. 

#8 CHARLIE FIVE O put forth an even showing versus slightly softer last time out, but is three of five at today's trip, and rates a slight edge in a race with but one first draft tossout. #5 WINNING DRIVE has been freshened up a tad since closing out the tri in early December, and although he's been winless for about two years, should be in the thick of things late. #7 DONTBELATE had the two race win streak snapped when facing starter competition a half'a month back, but is back in with platers and must be left in the hopper. 

#7 SHORE TIME has Lasix added off of a couple of in the money finishes, and after four straight starts on a wet track, is back on a quick one today, and that's good in our eyes ( 65.5 in his lone start doing such -- which came without the miracle drug ). Colt goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. #2 BARRON'S BOUNCE gets his working papers today, and of the six upstairs members of the family tree, five broke their maidens second time out, with one winning the bow. The post stinks, but 375 Tommy is fat enough, and should things not pan out, tab for later. #8 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS is a zippy sort, but will likely take some pounding at the windows.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 BOB JOHN RAY

#8 MYSTIC NIGHT has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but bay boy has a 5:2-0-0-3 boxscore in true second off the shelf engagements, and the 7:3-0-2 local ledger stands out quite favorably against his 17:1-4-1 mark otherwise. Oddly enough, Davis has not done well for this outfit, but we'll still give him the nod. #9 DR. BLUTE hasn't been seen in a couple of Christmas', but has hit the board in both dirt tries off the pine, and all his tallies have come in Queens. #7 ALTERNATE REALITY digs the trip & strip, and can pick up a piece.   NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Featured race of the day is named after one of the most beloved New York Breds of all time, and for some history on Gander, please go to this link. As for the race itself. we'll lean towards the #2 DOC SULLIVAN, as this one has done nothing but improve over his three starts ( two of 'em wins ), and in our eyes, Davis chose the weaker of his two choices here -- but it was for a bigger outfit. #6 LIBERTY ( Bibberty ) CENTRAL is another whom you can draw an upwards arrow alongside the PP's, and draws the outside for the first time off the maiden win. #1 THE BIG TORPEDO completes our triad of choices on an upswing. 

#7 MY MAN WOODY outran his parimutuel offering quite nicely when completing the exacta at 13-1 last out, and although he may regress a tad on a fast surface, we'll place up top due to the hot barn. #1 ROCK STAR BOY has been kept in jail since the January 12th snag, and is now halved in price. Connections stand to lose a fair amount of money should a score & another claim ensue, so we have mixed signals, despite the okay running line after being away. #2 NOBLE ONE jazzed up the tri in a big way 23 days back, and did such despite running into some traffic. Just may be double digits once again. 

Aqueduct 52-228 ( $403 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-11 ( 18.1% ) Favorite's Win % 78-228 ( 34.3% )( As of Sunday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout